Back in June, 2016 before the Brexit referendum, if you can recall, most everyone and his broker was probably telling you to BUY! BUY! BUY! because everyone was sure that there was no way that the result would be to Leave! But there it was. The unexpected surprise of the year. ALL GBP/XXX fx pairs took a nose dive off a 100 foot cliff! But if you also recall, my charts in the days leading up to the Brexit vote back then was telling me a different story. My analysis was strongly negative and said to SELL! NOT buy.
Here was my post on GBPUSD 3 days before the Brexit Referendum so you can see what I predicted:
So here we are again 3 years later and now today we have the vote on the plan on how to leave the EU: the Meaningful Vote they call it. And everyone including their gardener is saying that the agreement will be defeated overwhelmingly. There are several possible outcomes here:
1. Overwhelming NO vote
2. NO vote but only by a small margin
3. NO vote but a 2nd vote is forced
4. NO vote but a 2nd Brexit Public Referendum is called
5. A YES vote (highly unlikely but lightening can strike twice!)
and recently there were reports that Angela Merkel has stepped forward and re-assured Theresa May that Germany will support re-negotiations on the agreement WITH an easing of the EU's demands on how GB can leave.
Pretty much in at least 4 out of the 5 scenarios, the result should have a negative impact on the Pound. Just how much is the question. I don't expect what happened in June, 2016 to repeat itself today though.
In any case, you can see my current chart analysis as to what the GBPUSD should do and I have been projecting this since last week. So no, this analysis has NOTHING TO DO with today's vote! Whether you want to believe my analysis or not is up to each person. But I wonder if you believed me back in June, 2016 when I said to SELL? I'm already SHORT.
For more info on GBPUSD and other markets, PM me.