Sterling headed down toward support level

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
8 months ago
The recent break to the upside from a wide triangle formation has seen a significant, but common, pushback which seems to be headed back towards the line of breakout. A touch of the 200 day MA seems in order and then a test of the support area around 1.435
The Pound could break through support and head back down into the channel, targeting the 0.618 fibonacci extension from the possible corrective ABCD-like pattern that would form. In general, given the "brexit" hurdle I think it is plausible to assume a push down of the pound heading towards the vote, the outcome of which will certainly have the last word on the sterling's destination (and the euro             for that matter).
Alternatively, a strak of weak US economic data and a continued dovish stance from the FED could cause the pound to bounce on that support and continue it's uptrand.
8 months ago
Comment: Very interesting: the price has bounced twice over that support level and then, instead of falling as I was expecting it shot up through the roof. This happened for a specific and very clear reason: an important poll came out predicting only a ~20 ish % of probability of a brexit! That came as a huge surprise (albeit we had a few days of continued small losses to the pro brexit side before this).
Wow... what a remarkable event. Now the question is, will this just dissipate on a future contraddicting poll news? There's no way to know really
8 months ago
Comment: On the other hand, analysts generally say that the Sterling has to come down no matter what. So that even with a no brexit scenario they see a short term rally of the pound followed by the continuation of the major long term downtrend... The uk in general likes to see a weak pound, but the BoE has to hike rates at some point after brexit.
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