douglasaa

GBPUSD POST FOMC - RISING WEDGE

Short
douglasaa Updated   
FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
This pair should face heavy resistance between 1.27691-1.27795, with a few key fib levels clustered around this area. This area has been a reliable support/resistance zone in the past.

The current rise is simply a pullback from the drop post-rate hike and this pair seems to be trading in a rising wedge structure. I am anticipating a break down of this structure near the top, for a continuation of the overall bearish trend. This should be catalysed during the London session, possibly with help from a dovish tone from the BoE during the UK’s interest rate decision resulting in further GBP weakness.

Look for entries between 1.2770 and 1.2780 on a lower timeframe.

SL @ 1.28185

TARGET 1 @ 1.27300
TARGET 2 @ 1.26706
TARGET 3 @ 1.26368

R/R ratio - approx 3.04 (depending on your entry)

Good luck
Comment:

GU looking quite dire, could break down a lot sooner than expected
Comment:
GU struggling to move higher, starting to look like a bearish pennant rather than a rising wedge..

Comment:

Looking more like a pennant, updated entry is

SL @ 1.27708
SELL LIMIT @ 1.27420
TP1 @ @ 1.26617
TP 2 @ 1.26368

Waiting for candle to close below the lower trendline.
Comment:

This should be it.. order hasn't activated yet
Trade active
Comment:

Looks like the break down is real this time.. coming along nicely
Comment:

Facing a hard support level here, but once it gets through 1.272-1.273 it's a race to the bottom
Comment:

So far so good, bad UK retail sales helped limit upside risk, however gbpusd is currently facing exhaustion and needs to consolidate before more downside. Alternatively, a bearish impulse from the BoE rate decision should do the trick.
Comment:

Trade going well, TP1 is in sight. Next major support at 1.26920, may need to form a consolidation structure to break through
Trade closed: stop reached:

Well that was a bit of a surprise. Risk management is key, especially when trading during high impact events such as interest rate hikes. SL was not used/hit as position was hedged before the BoE announcement. Trade cancelled for further analysis after the dust settles
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