Rocketman
Short

GBPUSD: Soros Trade: BANK Moving JOBS OUT OF THE UK!!!!!!

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
842 18 14
Fundamental:
Guess who is knocking heavens door? Its the banks! They are starting to move jobs out of the UK: http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-banks-begin-moving-jobs-outside-uk-recruiters-warn-10595375

In the beginning of August 2016, I shorted the pound for fundamental reason and the technicals aligned with it. And now we are back to the levels where we started again. And, then after that, the UK data started to show positive waves of news and NOTHING made sense. I could not even predict anything. It was all haywire, and I lost several trades in GBP until mid-September:
New Plan for USDGBP: UK Post-Brexit Data Continues to Confound


I am looking for history to repeat itself again with all the positive short-term news in the UK data suddenly coming out negative. Here is what I am looking for:
September 28 (Wednesday) in the morning: MPC             Member Shafik Speaks. we need to really listen to what he has to say. This is NOT a normal trade. The trade can rise higher. I need to see some divergence at 1.3070. This price looks tastier than 1.2995, where I have another order to short, should price fall there.

Friday (UK's Currency Account) - analysts project that it will be worse than last month. Ok, so the cards look good in our favor so far. We only need one more element. We need USD to turn from being a short-term mixed thought to dollar positive: Core Durables and it that is bad, then Yellen to say something when she herself is "YELLened" at by the government. Crude Oil             Inventories come out at the same time. We need that and for the deal the oil             circus over in the middle eat to break down so that oil             will fall. We will know tomorrow. we have the orders in GBPUSD             , but not triggered yet.

Long-term, I am bearish the pound, there is no reason to buy it.
Technical:
Waiting to short at 1.2995 or at 1.3070 with DIVERGENCE!!
Stops at 1. 3121            
Target: 1.25, 1.26 and 1.2790ish
Comment: That is about over 80,000 jobs that will be GONE. The service sector is the largest or one of the most important sectors of the UK.
Comment:
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Comment: Here we go! 32 pip stop!
Comment:
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Comment: "little is known about the distribution of UK help to the economy" ~ translation: meaning they are dumping gold into a black hole
Comment: "More Stimulus required for GBP," says Shafik (BoE official member of the central bank).
Comment: Shefik accidently said, "Never say never to negative rates." hahahaha
Comment: Now, we wait USD durable good orders...the Rubber-band effect will happen if it comes out REALLY GOOD.
Comment: By the way, Shefik's statement contradicts Carney's. re they hiding something? Would you invest in the UK now? They sys that they are trying to ATTRACT investors. "Invest in the UK! We'll give you negative rates!"
Comment: Just woke up: Shafik “there is no doubt in my mind that the UK is experiencing a sizable economic shock in the wake of the referendum."
Comment: "...It seems likely to me that further monetary stimulus will be required at some point in order to help ensure that a slowdown in economic activity doesn’t turn into something more pernicious."

Now, 6 minutes to the US data release.
Comment: September 29th (tomorrow, Thursday), what the economic statistic on the economic calendar called "Net Lending to Individuals m/m". It is predicted to be positive by the analysts.

Other things to watch:
- UK Capital Outflows, Direct Foreign Investment and business investment
- Trade Statistics

Why? Because if you are an investor, it only makes sense to do this if you want to invest in a country or economy, right?
Comment: Watch Yellen Live: https://www.c-span.org/video/?415888-1/federal-reserve-chair-janet-yellen-testifies-oversight-operations&live
Comment: 15 minute range:
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Comment: Can you guess what GBPUSD is waiting for in this level of equilibrium?

Read above to find out.

I will also add now that at 3:35pm (New York time) FOMC Member Mester Speaks and at 6:15pm FOMC Member George Speaks. I will not be watching or listening.

Tomorrow, US GDP and Unemployment Claims comes out; this is hot news. Bullish or bearish US GDP? Well, I am bullish the USD in the long-term and hope the US data coming out tomorrow will support the central bank's direction.

So, I just wait and turn off the charts again until midnight (New York time) or London open.
Comment: Staying short GBPUSD:
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Trade active
Comment: Next order to be filled to short is 1.3070 if it gets there.
Comment: Ignore UK GDP because it is PRE-Brexit data. It doesn't apply.

If GBPUSD falls down sharply now, then you can hear the cries of ignorant traders who ONLY look at technical analysis saying: "You see, the GDP was good but it went down." Now, you have been infor,ed.

there is other stuff involved... going to sleep....
Comment: The UK GDP was a fake GDP. This why I re-shorted GBPUSD.
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Comment: Long-term view; just wating patiently:
https://i.gyazo.com/aa3cbb873738f3e146d75ba76afe21b0.png
Comment:
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Comment: because the Euro is the BIGGEST trading partner of the UK.
If the UK loses "ACCESS" to the Eurozone.. they lose big time.
....also where are their investors?
foreign investors..I don't see them piling in!
Comment:
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Comment: Look alive mates! There she blows!
Trade closed: target reached: Result:
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Trade closed: target reached
Comment: I just decided to completely CLOSE OUT ALL of my short positions and all of my trades. I am taking a break after the "big short". hahaha!!! :P
Comment:
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Comment: sorry..couldn't resist getting back in, I do hope November will prove me right about the UK with no oversea investors. My stop is already at break-even. Just holding this now.
Comment: "Norway rejects post-Brexit trade pact with UK"
http://news.forexlive.com/!/norway-rejects-post-brexit-trade-pact-with-uk-20161010
"Business daily Dagens Næringsliv reported that the UK's international trade secretary, Liam Fox, lobbied his Norwegian counterpart, Minister of Trade and Industry Monica Mæland, for Norway to join the United Kingdom in establishing a task force to prepare a new trade agreement for when the Brits formally leave the EU.
But when Fox's request was relayed to the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, it was rejected. According to Dagens Næringsliv, the ministry's director general for European affairs, Niels Engelschiøn, thought that joining the UK in a special task force would jeopardize Norway's European Economic Area (EEA) agreement. "
Comment: Leaked Treasury papers reveal thar a Hard Brexit could cost the UK £66bn a year.
/edition/news/hard-brexit-could-cost-66bn-a-year-phpmh6fcd#
Comment: https://www.thelocal.no/20161010/norway-rejected-post-brexit-cooperation-with-uk
Comment:
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Comment:
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I took a small short. Same target. I am going to see the president of the World Bank today. I'll do my best to ask him about the UK and the pound.
Comment: hopped in again based on radio news and this wave pattern, and the bullish dollar. Hpefully the data will continue to look good:
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Comment: took another stab at GBPUSD, with a limit order at "E" on the top of the triangle:
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Comment: Closer Inspection:
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Comment:
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Comment: Warning! The Carney Golf Put sounds good for GBP. Quarterly target has been reached already, but well see if it can go down more. News is positive::
"04:10 BoE Governor Carney reiterates that the BoE's actions have prevented the situation in regards to Brexit becoming worse, adding that they are willing to tolerate some inflation overshoot to accommodate economic strength"

Bank ofEngland Credit Check so far doesn't look good as I read it, but taking Carney at his word today, t is hard to remain short, unless for the cause of a stronger dollar. "http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/other/monetary/ccs/2016/16q3.pdf

Thus, this surprising catalst causes me to reduce HALF of my position, as things are not lining up in my favor and causing confusion to the situation.
Comment: VERY IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THIS QUARTER:
Interesting news: "S&P's warning that the GBP could lose its reserve status" :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/13/standard--poors-warns-on-uk-reserve-currency-status-as-brexit-ha/

Another Summary here:
http://news.forexlive.com/!/sp-report-on-pound-losing-reserve-status-being-cited-for-earlier-gbp-retreat-20161014

OLD BUT *vERY iMPORTANT TO read: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/sterling-could-lose-position-as-elite-reserve-currency-if-uk-vot/

FINALLY: FORIEGN DIRECT INVESTMENT <-- This is what I've been dying to hear!
Lack of Foriegn Direct Investment slightly confirmed. Many probably will not understand this statement. hehe That is good for me: "Mr Ravi said Britain has limited scope for a spree on infrastructure projects and is walking a fine line on budget policy. "Before Brexit, the trajectory was planned fiscal consolidation, but we're no longer certain we're going to see that," (Ravi Bhatia is the S&P director of sovereign ratings in Britain).

RUMOR HAS IT that MANY US banks areabout to pull out of the UK:
- France says US banks plan to leave Brexit Britain: "French finance minister Michel Sapin says US banks have told him they will move operations out of Britain as it presses ahead with Brexit" https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/14/france-says-us-banks-plan-to-leave-brexit-britain-business-live

Conclusion: Carney is fishing and vying for investors until the UK's fate is sealed. UK looks like it will crumble first. If banks are going to pull out of the UK, then why buy their currency?

-
Comment: Clearer conclusion: So, while the data is coming inn for the UK suggests weakness, Carney of the Bank of England is actually supporting the currency because his statements are suggesting that his accommodative policies are on hold for now. Mixed stuff!
Comment: The BoE signals that mortgage demand in the UK was influenced by the results of the Brexit vote. So, more people go "unsecured" credit to deal in mortgage type instruments. Still reading. Just want to leave a note to self.
Comment: ****Key:
(1) The UK has not pushed the Article 50 button and the that are still waiting to start EU negotiations next month. The Article 50 button to be pushed in March.
(2) The European Union is the UK's top trading partner.
(30 It will possibly lose "its reserve currency status if it fails to secure full access to the European single market."

...connect the dots....
Extremely good analysis Rocketman. I suspect you woke up happy as a clam today :))
Reply
Rocketman ChristianHoeghHolm
Good afternoon! Yes... I woke up very happy. There were several logical and economic-fundamental catalysts that lined up together with technical analysis that created a perfect storm. This here is clear proof that being an economic-fundamental trader is a valid, conservative, yet powerful way to trade.
Reply
Good proof of concept for fundamental analysis eh mate?

I added to my short on the retrace.

Targetting 1.10965 give or take.
Reply
Rocketman IvanLabrie
Yes.. my broker got my a nice take profit level at 116-ish. Yeah.. Now, I am also aiming for that level too:110 and 109.
Reply
Rocketman Rocketman
....maybe NFP will do the trick tomorrow.
Reply
I think so, if not I'll just hold, stop at entry.
Cheers!
Reply
Rocketman IvanLabrie
Yeah,,I'll be listening to the squawk all night. Bank traders have been called in. Gotta get prepared to see what they will try to do.
+1 Reply
Indeed, good idea to be there for London open.
Reply
Excellent break down mate.
Reply
if EURGBP continues to go DOWN GBPUSD will make the move to the upside
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