Rocketman
Short

GBPUSD: Soros Trade: BANK Moving JOBS OUT OF THE UK!!!!!!

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
838 18 14
5 months ago
Fundamental:
Guess who is knocking heavens door? Its the banks! They are starting to move jobs out of the UK: http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-banks-begin-moving-jobs-outside-uk-recruiters-warn-10595375

In the beginning of August 2016, I shorted the pound for fundamental reason and the technicals aligned with it. And now we are back to the levels where we started again. And, then after that, the UK data started to show positive waves of news and NOTHING made sense. I could not even predict anything. It was all haywire, and I lost several trades in GBP until mid-September:
New Plan for USDGBP: UK Post-Brexit Data Continues to Confound


I am looking for history to repeat itself again with all the positive short-term news in the UK data suddenly coming out negative. Here is what I am looking for:
September 28 (Wednesday) in the morning: MPC             Member Shafik Speaks. we need to really listen to what he has to say. This is NOT a normal trade. The trade can rise higher. I need to see some divergence at 1.3070. This price looks tastier than 1.2995, where I have another order to short, should price fall there.

Friday (UK's Currency Account) - analysts project that it will be worse than last month. Ok, so the cards look good in our favor so far. We only need one more element. We need USD to turn from being a short-term mixed thought to dollar positive: Core Durables and it that is bad, then Yellen to say something when she herself is "YELLened" at by the government. Crude Oil             Inventories come out at the same time. We need that and for the deal the oil             circus over in the middle eat to break down so that oil             will fall. We will know tomorrow. we have the orders in GBPUSD             , but not triggered yet.

Long-term, I am bearish the pound, there is no reason to buy it.
Technical:
Waiting to short at 1.2995 or at 1.3070 with DIVERGENCE!!
Stops at 1.3121
Target: 1.25, 1.26 and 1.2790ish
5 months ago
Comment: That is about over 80,000 jobs that will be GONE. The service sector is the largest or one of the most important sectors of the UK.
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Here we go! 32 pip stop!
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: "little is known about the distribution of UK help to the economy" ~ translation: meaning they are dumping gold into a black hole
5 months ago
Comment: "More Stimulus required for GBP," says Shafik (BoE official member of the central bank).
5 months ago
Comment: Shefik accidently said, "Never say never to negative rates." hahahaha
5 months ago
Comment: Now, we wait USD durable good orders...the Rubber-band effect will happen if it comes out REALLY GOOD.
5 months ago
Comment: By the way, Shefik's statement contradicts Carney's. re they hiding something? Would you invest in the UK now? They sys that they are trying to ATTRACT investors. "Invest in the UK! We'll give you negative rates!"
5 months ago
Comment: Just woke up: Shafik “there is no doubt in my mind that the UK is experiencing a sizable economic shock in the wake of the referendum."
5 months ago
Comment: "...It seems likely to me that further monetary stimulus will be required at some point in order to help ensure that a slowdown in economic activity doesn’t turn into something more pernicious."

Now, 6 minutes to the US data release.
5 months ago
Comment: September 29th (tomorrow, Thursday), what the economic statistic on the economic calendar called "Net Lending to Individuals m/m". It is predicted to be positive by the analysts.

Other things to watch:
- UK Capital Outflows, Direct Foreign Investment and business investment
- Trade Statistics

Why? Because if you are an investor, it only makes sense to do this if you want to invest in a country or economy, right?
5 months ago
Comment: Watch Yellen Live: https://www.c-span.org/video/%3F415888-1/federal-reserve-chair-janet-yellen-testifies-oversight-operations%26live
5 months ago
Comment: 15 minute range:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Can you guess what GBPUSD is waiting for in this level of equilibrium?

Read above to find out.

I will also add now that at 3:35pm (New York time) FOMC Member Mester Speaks and at 6:15pm FOMC Member George Speaks. I will not be watching or listening.

Tomorrow, US GDP and Unemployment Claims comes out; this is hot news. Bullish or bearish US GDP? Well, I am bullish the USD in the long-term and hope the US data coming out tomorrow will support the central bank's direction.

So, I just wait and turn off the charts again until midnight (New York time) or London open.
5 months ago
Comment: Staying short GBPUSD:
snapshot
5 months ago
Trade active
5 months ago
Comment: Next order to be filled to short is 1.3070 if it gets there.
5 months ago
Comment: Ignore UK GDP because it is PRE-Brexit data. It doesn't apply.

If GBPUSD falls down sharply now, then you can hear the cries of ignorant traders who ONLY look at technical analysis saying: "You see, the GDP was good but it went down." Now, you have been infor,ed.

there is other stuff involved... going to sleep....
5 months ago
Comment: The UK GDP was a fake GDP. This why I re-shorted GBPUSD.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Long-term view; just wating patiently:
https://i.gyazo.com/aa3cbb873738f3e146d75ba76afe21b0.png
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: because the Euro is the BIGGEST trading partner of the UK.
If the UK loses "ACCESS" to the Eurozone.. they lose big time.
....also where are their investors?
foreign investors..I don't see them piling in!
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Look alive mates! There she blows!
5 months ago
Trade closed: target reached: Result:
snapshot
5 months ago
Trade closed: target reached
5 months ago
Comment: I just decided to completely CLOSE OUT ALL of my short positions and all of my trades. I am taking a break after the "big short". hahaha!!! :P
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: sorry..couldn't resist getting back in, I do hope November will prove me right about the UK with no oversea investors. My stop is already at break-even. Just holding this now.
5 months ago
Comment: "Norway rejects post-Brexit trade pact with UK"
http://news.forexlive.com/%21/norway-rejects-post-brexit-trade-pact-with-uk-20161010
"Business daily Dagens Næringsliv reported that the UK's international trade secretary, Liam Fox, lobbied his Norwegian counterpart, Minister of Trade and Industry Monica Mæland, for Norway to join the United Kingdom in establishing a task force to prepare a new trade agreement for when the Brits formally leave the EU.
But when Fox's request was relayed to the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, it was rejected. According to Dagens Næringsliv, the ministry's director general for European affairs, Niels Engelschiøn, thought that joining the UK in a special task force would jeopardize Norway's European Economic Area (EEA) agreement. "
5 months ago
Comment: Leaked Treasury papers reveal thar a Hard Brexit could cost the UK £66bn a year.
/edition/news/hard-brexit-could-cost-66bn-a-year-phpmh6fcd#
5 months ago
Comment: https://www.thelocal.no/20161010/norway-rejected-post-brexit-cooperation-with-uk
5 months ago
Comment:
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5 months ago
Comment:
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I took a small short. Same target. I am going to see the president of the World Bank today. I'll do my best to ask him about the UK and the pound.
5 months ago
Comment: hopped in again based on radio news and this wave pattern, and the bullish dollar. Hpefully the data will continue to look good:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: took another stab at GBPUSD, with a limit order at "E" on the top of the triangle:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Closer Inspection:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment:
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5 months ago
Comment: Warning! The Carney Golf Put sounds good for GBP. Quarterly target has been reached already, but well see if it can go down more. News is positive::
"04:10 BoE Governor Carney reiterates that the BoE's actions have prevented the situation in regards to Brexit becoming worse, adding that they are willing to tolerate some inflation overshoot to accommodate economic strength"

Bank ofEngland Credit Check so far doesn't look good as I read it, but taking Carney at his word today, t is hard to remain short, unless for the cause of a stronger dollar. "http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/other/monetary/ccs/2016/16q3.pdf

Thus, this surprising catalst causes me to reduce HALF of my position, as things are not lining up in my favor and causing confusion to the situation.
5 months ago
Comment: VERY IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THIS QUARTER:
Interesting news: "S&P's warning that the GBP could lose its reserve status" :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/13/standard--poors-warns-on-uk-reserve-currency-status-as-brexit-ha/

Another Summary here:
http://news.forexlive.com/%21/sp-report-on-pound-losing-reserve-status-being-cited-for-earlier-gbp-retreat-20161014

OLD BUT *vERY iMPORTANT TO read: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/sterling-could-lose-position-as-elite-reserve-currency-if-uk-vot/

FINALLY: FORIEGN DIRECT INVESTMENT <-- This is what I've been dying to hear!
Lack of Foriegn Direct Investment slightly confirmed. Many probably will not understand this statement. hehe That is good for me: "Mr Ravi said Britain has limited scope for a spree on infrastructure projects and is walking a fine line on budget policy. "Before Brexit, the trajectory was planned fiscal consolidation, but we're no longer certain we're going to see that," (Ravi Bhatia is the S&P director of sovereign ratings in Britain).

RUMOR HAS IT that MANY US banks areabout to pull out of the UK:
- France says US banks plan to leave Brexit Britain: "French finance minister Michel Sapin says US banks have told him they will move operations out of Britain as it presses ahead with Brexit" https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/14/france-says-us-banks-plan-to-leave-brexit-britain-business-live

Conclusion: Carney is fishing and vying for investors until the UK's fate is sealed. UK looks like it will crumble first. If banks are going to pull out of the UK, then why buy their currency?

-
5 months ago
Comment: Clearer conclusion: So, while the data is coming inn for the UK suggests weakness, Carney of the Bank of England is actually supporting the currency because his statements are suggesting that his accommodative policies are on hold for now. Mixed stuff!
5 months ago
Comment: The BoE signals that mortgage demand in the UK was influenced by the results of the Brexit vote. So, more people go "unsecured" credit to deal in mortgage type instruments. Still reading. Just want to leave a note to self.
5 months ago
Comment: ****Key:
(1) The UK has not pushed the Article 50 button and the that are still waiting to start EU negotiations next month. The Article 50 button to be pushed in March.
(2) The European Union is the UK's top trading partner.
(30 It will possibly lose "its reserve currency status if it fails to secure full access to the European single market."

...connect the dots....
dchua1969
5 months ago
nice analysis as usual. my concern is the dollar and with the debate ongoing , it added a new level of uncertainty. chart wise, it broke out of the triangle pattern on 16 sept and pull back for several days till 26 sept. it now sits on the 21day ema which is fairly bullish imo. do we have any more important economic data upcoming that might swing the dollar much higher ?
http://business.asiaone.com/news/more-job-cuts-loom-financial-firms
this news got me thinking - if the big boys are closing shop , it must mean they know something that we small time retail players do not . what's your take ?
Reply
Rocketman PRO dchua1969
5 months ago
Yeah...Singapore too? I was thinking that US consumer confidence was going to be bad, and it came out surprisingly good. That is why I am watching this week's data. A glimmer of bullish hope for the US Fed to raise rates if US GDP comes out good and Yellen stays hawkish afterwards. Durable goods come on this week and that GDP... we just need these things to tip in the dollar favor. What REALLY will nail the door in the hammer for USDJPY is Tokyo's CPI being negative. Then, the yen will weaken and (if the dollar data is bullish all week), we have a nice RUBBER BAND that will be unleashed. At least, that is my anticipation; however, as you are thinking, the US elections, and the trend of the other data, so far, has been MIXED for the USD in the short-term, even though long-term the dollar is bullish.

I do not know or have any predictions for the economic data tomorrow or speeches like usual:

I will have my squawk on...all night for any sign that Shafik (UK guy) become bullish on the UK.
He speaks in a few hours and if he wants to play games, I have that 32 pip stop. Then, I am going to short him at 1.3070 if it can rise that high. Then, Fed Chair Yellen Testifies a few hours afterwards.

Crude Oil Inventories... I don't know what to expect, but I will be hoping that the deal in the Midde East will be broken down. They keep making deals and agreements that falter. So, I will be listening on the squawk tomorrow regarding that. I won't be looking at the charts though just listening in on the news.

Reply
Rocketman PRO dchua1969
5 months ago
..and yes... that 21 ema is bullish.
Reply
Rocketman PRO
5 months ago
snapshot
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ManishSharma Rocketman
5 months ago
Hi, your thoughts on Shafik's address and subsequent movement on this pair?
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Rocketman PRO ManishSharma
5 months ago
I posted what Shafik said, "Never say no to negative rates." lol That is what he said, which contradicts Carney. Hmm.. something is going on. Would you want to invest in the UK now?
Reply
ManishSharma Rocketman
5 months ago
Yeah.. I find this doublespeak fishy.. Have been looking to take this pair down which most traders don't believe will happen.. Yellen speech to watch out for.. Thanks mate.. I like your approach in this overly technical forum
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Paul-FXTC PRO
5 months ago
if EURGBP continues to go DOWN GBPUSD will make the move to the upside
Reply
Rocketman PRO Paul-FXTC
5 months ago
Well, both can go down at the same time. EUR/GBP just measures which is going down faster. If the EURO currency is falling slower than the GBP currency, but they are both falling, then EURGBP will go down. If the EUR currency is flat, but GBP currency is going up, then EUR/GBP will go down. If the Euro currency is going down, but GBP is flat, then EUR/GBP will fall down.

You see? A NAKED PRICE ACTION CHART of EUR/GBP tells you nothing about what us REALLY happening to the Euro or the GBP. It is just a ratio showing you which one is going up or down faster. They are both WEAK currencies. A terrible pair to trade; because they can take turns going up and down. If one were weak and the other were strong, then this would be a different story; it would be easier to trade.

This is why the naked price action hypothesis is dumb to trade on currency pairs. We are not PAR traders, but "currency" traders after all, but all the gurus want you to believe that a chart is a chart, when in forex it doesn't tell you much of anything of what is really happening. You are looking at 1/28 of the market for EURO and 1/28 of the market for GBP when you look at EUR/GBP. So, we are missing the BIG picture here. Selling their ridiculous forex courses to us...grrrrrrr. And it doesn't help us really know what is happening in reality.
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IvanLabrie PRO
5 months ago
Excellent break down mate.
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IvanLabrie PRO
5 months ago
Good proof of concept for fundamental analysis eh mate?

I added to my short on the retrace.

Targetting 1.10965 give or take.
Reply
Rocketman PRO IvanLabrie
5 months ago
Yes.. my broker got my a nice take profit level at 116-ish. Yeah.. Now, I am also aiming for that level too:110 and 109.
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Rocketman PRO Rocketman
5 months ago
....maybe NFP will do the trick tomorrow.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Rocketman
5 months ago
I think so, if not I'll just hold, stop at entry.
Cheers!
Reply
Rocketman PRO IvanLabrie
5 months ago
Yeah,,I'll be listening to the squawk all night. Bank traders have been called in. Gotta get prepared to see what they will try to do.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Rocketman
5 months ago
Indeed, good idea to be there for London open.
Reply
Extremely good analysis Rocketman. I suspect you woke up happy as a clam today :))
Reply
Rocketman PRO ChristianHoeghHolm
5 months ago
Good afternoon! Yes... I woke up very happy. There were several logical and economic-fundamental catalysts that lined up together with technical analysis that created a perfect storm. This here is clear proof that being an economic-fundamental trader is a valid, conservative, yet powerful way to trade.
Reply
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