Which way for GBP/USD next week 14th March 2016

Very mixed picture for GBP/USD with several unanswered questions. If 1.4436 is a lower top and we wont know this for a while then we can expect GBP to weaken at the start of the trading week. RSI on H4 is overbought and turning south so we can expect some movement south if only to ease o.b. conditions.

The question is how far will any retrace go? As long as we remain in the channel then I expect GBP to head south and look for support from the lower channel which will coincide with the 200 sma. If the channel holds then we can expect GBP to head much higher towards 1.50.

A break of the 200 sma and the lower channel would suggest the broader downtrend is resuming and we can expect a return to a sub 1.40 rate.

I expect GBP to head lower from these levels but find support for a push higher throughout next week.

Heavy news week, next week from Tuesday.

Comment:

The anticipated pullback in G/U continues and price has dropped out of the channel and under the 200 sma.
At this point we could go either way.
A close on H1 below 1.4233 and a failure to regain the channel would suggest we're headed lower though 1.4184 is WS1 pivot which may act as support.
Above 1.4255 and I shall look for a LONG entry. A retest of 1.4236 (200sma) and failure to break and I'll go SHORT.

Trade active:

With RSI turning from oversold up and the Monthly Pivot preventing GBP BEARS from pushing further south, signs are we're headed back up.

I'm not super confident about this trade but I'm in at 1.4162 with a tight STOP at 1.4136.

Price is now 1.4178.

Plenty of hurdles ahead for GBP BULLS so I need to get this trade to b/e and see what happens.