MoneyPatterns
Long

GBTC - Bump and Run Reversal Bottom / Unfilled down-gaps

OTC:GBTC   GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST (BTC)
From my original post – “Bump and Run Reversal Bottom?”
I see our current GBTC pattern as identical to the BTC pattern as a “Bump and Run Reversal Bottom” with a few differences. ThePatternSite defines the shape as a frying pan, tilted down, with the handle on the left. It is ranked 1 out of 56 (1 being best). See my other post for more details on this pattern. This is my opinion and not financial advice.

Reasons for Bullish
MACD on GBTC is about to cross to bullish and is very suppressed. Same as BTCUSD - Bollinger Bands very tight indicating big move coming. Overall upward trend intact. Possible bear trap not bear flag . Auto-Fib retracement shows upwards targets after retracing over 59% (Compared to BTCUSD roughly 57%). Both GBTC and BTCUSD RSI have bullish divergence .
GBTC ready to touch it’s 200MA in next few days. We can easily resume double track of red lines (which was initial trend) after touching the 200MA.
Grayscale saw over $250M during Q3 from new money coming into GBTC . I am not sure how Grayscale uses the fund

Chart
Pink line (above $10.62) - First confirmation to wait for green line confirmation. Coincides with 200MA.
Green line (above $11.36) – Final confirmation of pattern, long position initiated. If correct, pattern reaches target 76% of time. Lines up perfectly with highs (coincidence?)
Invalidated - if below Bollinger band (~$9.00). But I would consider previous low of $9.25 or less a sell-signal.
Yellow boxes – Total of 3 unfilled down gaps (meaning they will need to fill with upward price movement).
Blue boxes – for time reference same sized boxes. Head box is larger.
Red lines – original upward trend.

Target- $16.00. Next $23.00 (higher targets drag up page).

Total image looks like a chill sleepy guy with sunglasses (not worried and ready to HODL). This was unintentional but hilarious.

Sources
ThePatternSite – Bump and Run Reversal Bottom ; Head and Shoulders Bottom
Google – Bear Trap, click images, look at second picture (strong uptrend with shakeout).
Big thank you to Atilla for the Auto Fib retracement indicator.

Comments

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