The direction of GC futures is UP but the 2D bar has opened with a SSTO SELL and that is generating an arrow signaling SELL. It is very unlikely that the SSTO will close above 80. I will still consider the direction to be UP until it does close.
There is the overbought (OB) trend noise balance (TNB) indicator on 1D-1W to confirm this
There is a 1M BUY weakness ( WK ) indicator to confirm short/medium term
There is the 2D 6UP to conflict this
There are 'inactive' indicators to conflict this, the 1Q SSTO SELL signal
There are 'inactive' warnings signs 1Y RSI OB, 1Y 12UP.
Be aware of the cost of any potential SL and the affect of that on the account. In this scenario CMP 1864, 2W LOW SL 1855, 1 MGC contract $10.00 = 1 'point', cost = $90, In the book, Trading For A Living - a trade should not risk more than 2% of the account, account size = $90 / 0.02 = $4,500 minimum.
The narrative of GC futures is exhausting due to the record 12 green 1Y closes in a row from 2001 to 2012. This caused the 1Y RSI to reach 90 in 2012. When the RSI produced a SELL signal by trading below 70, it immediately caused a crash to the 9 SMA at 1167.7 the following year. Now that the 1Y RSI has again closed above 70 last year and now sits at 75, there is a concern price will fall to the 9 SMA if it trades below 70 again. Because this is a long-term idea, I consider it 'inactive' and I only trade in the direction the daily charts are moving in. For that reason, I will consider buying between the 1D 18 SMA and the 2D 18 SMA support zone as confirmed by the OB TNB indicator. The price is already approaching the bottom of the support zone so buying is reasonable. Unfortunately the SL is above the support of 2D 18 SMA. This makes it possible that the SL will fill and price will rise directly after.
The original plan was to wait for more short-term confirmations, better 1D BB conditions (at least 1XP rather than 1CP), wait for the FED interest rate decision next week. Since then, the short term condition is greatly improving with a 2H 6DN as shown on the chart. This is a relatively new indicator I am using. That is enough short-term confirmation for me to try buying. The 1D BB condition did change to 1D 1XP. This will allow gold to reach targets within its monthly range.
Like I said I think this 2H 6DN is enough to confirm a pause in targeting the 2D 6UP.
There is the overbought (OB) trend noise balance (TNB) indicator on 1D-1W to confirm this
There is a 1M BUY weakness ( WK ) indicator to confirm short/medium term
There is the 2D 6UP to conflict this
There are 'inactive' indicators to conflict this, the 1Q SSTO SELL signal
There are 'inactive' warnings signs 1Y RSI OB, 1Y 12UP.
Be aware of the cost of any potential SL and the affect of that on the account. In this scenario CMP 1864, 2W LOW SL 1855, 1 MGC contract $10.00 = 1 'point', cost = $90, In the book, Trading For A Living - a trade should not risk more than 2% of the account, account size = $90 / 0.02 = $4,500 minimum.
The narrative of GC futures is exhausting due to the record 12 green 1Y closes in a row from 2001 to 2012. This caused the 1Y RSI to reach 90 in 2012. When the RSI produced a SELL signal by trading below 70, it immediately caused a crash to the 9 SMA at 1167.7 the following year. Now that the 1Y RSI has again closed above 70 last year and now sits at 75, there is a concern price will fall to the 9 SMA if it trades below 70 again. Because this is a long-term idea, I consider it 'inactive' and I only trade in the direction the daily charts are moving in. For that reason, I will consider buying between the 1D 18 SMA and the 2D 18 SMA support zone as confirmed by the OB TNB indicator. The price is already approaching the bottom of the support zone so buying is reasonable. Unfortunately the SL is above the support of 2D 18 SMA. This makes it possible that the SL will fill and price will rise directly after.
The original plan was to wait for more short-term confirmations, better 1D BB conditions (at least 1XP rather than 1CP), wait for the FED interest rate decision next week. Since then, the short term condition is greatly improving with a 2H 6DN as shown on the chart. This is a relatively new indicator I am using. That is enough short-term confirmation for me to try buying. The 1D BB condition did change to 1D 1XP. This will allow gold to reach targets within its monthly range.
Like I said I think this 2H 6DN is enough to confirm a pause in targeting the 2D 6UP.
Comment:
My concern with the SL was proven accurate. No matter for me, the analysis still stands so I re-enter and see what will happen. I think the 2W LOW SL can still be used here. As far as targets, I think 1906.2 and 1966.1 are reasonable.
Comment:
GC is still within the 1W bearish BO. Above 1871.9 is when the market will change this condition and make it able to rise to the previous weeks high.
Comment:
I am surprised this hit the SL again for the 2nd time and it did not even try to trade above 1871.9. The time spent at the support here will contribute to compression and that compression will contribute to expansion. So if it does rise I think it will continue above the 1M high into the 1M BUY WK.