Gold's decision Point, time for planning longer term moves.

There are three basic medium to long term scenarios that can happen from here. Embedded in those basic scenarios are all the complications, like throwbacks, under/over performance, etc.

1) Gold breaks the resistance line bullishly;
2) Gold pulls back from resistance, finds support on the previous resistance of the accending triangle, retesting that level as support before making another run at black resistance line
3) Gold pulls back through the acceding triangle and retest the black support line, maybe around $1,300.

The week is about to end and I don't like how we went up on low volume the last four weeks. Gains given on low volume can be taken away with low volume despite how primed the MACD histogram and signal line look. Indicators can get funky at key trendlines or horizontal levels and that is why the charting and volume should come first, and other indicators second for me personally.
The OBV Volume EMAS are long term divergent on the weekly chart and that is not a good look at resistance. The position of the 10 and 20 OBV ema does not inspire a lot of confidence given the divergence that has lead up to it.
Something I do on the larger time frames is I put the bollinger bands on the OBV EMAs. It comes build into the indicator I usw but I don't find it useful at lower timeframes (yet?). On the three month chart the OBV is right out the Bollinger Band. The 10 EMA looks to have a double top and that is not good for bulls. In general, the OBV blasting out of the bollinger band is incredibly bullish if it happens in the right place, like the OBV EMAS just take the first bullish ordering after years of bear market. We might retrace like a beast and the begin the parabolic run. In that situation you could DCA and buy the dip. That circumstance does not exist here.

The news is going on about regional instability in the Middle East again. When Oil pumped after the attack on the Saudi refinery the futures price of course pumped and then lost 1/6th of its value in the following weeks. On the lower time frames you see the flagpole, and you can see the wedge as drawn in the top chart. Not very strong formations to get us through resistance. We don't have a strong formation on any time frame really to get us through. The blue acceding triangle reached its target based on the average 65%-ish average performance of the height of the triangle That means we either over-perform or retrace.

My bias is bear but I am not looking to go market short with the mortgage money. Not financial advice, I am just preparing myself for the three main scenarios that seem the most obvious to me right now. I have been watching this trendline for months and I am not surprised we are stalling where we are. We could still set a higher high and I fiddle the points on the ray used to make this trendline and we retrace from there, or we blast through and the trendline remain in place as a potential retrenchment target on the way up. Since two out of three main scenarios are bearish I am tagging this bearish.