Well, sometimes it takes a little time for a successful trade, sometimes takes a lot. This particular one has been running for more than 6 years now and maybe it will need a breath before the next leg up, offering a better entry to those interest or adding positions opportunity to those involved early.
Although still inside the mother candle of April, that is the whole range of Q2 of this year, those bearish pin rejection are suggesting caution, light positions a bit and maybe wait to add back in the demand zones below.
Why bonds are perhaps due for a reaction, after all this great fall that lasted more than two years and offered a laid back, easy and successful short with long gold together? With low liquidity in the system and central banks forced to increase rates -yes again through an almost guaranteed recession coming, how smart- look no where else than real estate, the biggest market of the planet that is hundreds of times bigger than all the rest together and it's collateralized and leveraged mainly through bonds.
If bonds keep falling without a breather, real estate will blow up with unimaginable consequences for the global financial system, as for time being looks like we are heading for the troughs of the credit cycle, possibly until Q1-2 of next year.
Those who are targeting a slingshot upwards of stock indices are forced to wait until then imo, as this probably will be the greatest trade of a lifetime. But bonds have to suck money in first and trap dump capital for good before the next leg lower. And gold doesn't look that signals a forthcoming peak in geopolitics tensions for the time being not even the mass loss in citizens confidence towards the established money system and the accompanied huge losses in purchasing power of their respective currencies through inflation and money printing. This will come within the next three to five years, I believe.
Watching gold as we are entering the best seasonal quarter of the year and commercials are already net short -182,000 contracts, at the one standard deviation point of the last 3 year's average. I like the zone between $1,757 and $1,677 in gold. With a close below $1,752 I'll be forced to hedge a possible decline to protect long term positions.
Cheers, take care
Pantheo
Although still inside the mother candle of April, that is the whole range of Q2 of this year, those bearish pin rejection are suggesting caution, light positions a bit and maybe wait to add back in the demand zones below.
Why bonds are perhaps due for a reaction, after all this great fall that lasted more than two years and offered a laid back, easy and successful short with long gold together? With low liquidity in the system and central banks forced to increase rates -yes again through an almost guaranteed recession coming, how smart- look no where else than real estate, the biggest market of the planet that is hundreds of times bigger than all the rest together and it's collateralized and leveraged mainly through bonds.
If bonds keep falling without a breather, real estate will blow up with unimaginable consequences for the global financial system, as for time being looks like we are heading for the troughs of the credit cycle, possibly until Q1-2 of next year.
Those who are targeting a slingshot upwards of stock indices are forced to wait until then imo, as this probably will be the greatest trade of a lifetime. But bonds have to suck money in first and trap dump capital for good before the next leg lower. And gold doesn't look that signals a forthcoming peak in geopolitics tensions for the time being not even the mass loss in citizens confidence towards the established money system and the accompanied huge losses in purchasing power of their respective currencies through inflation and money printing. This will come within the next three to five years, I believe.
Watching gold as we are entering the best seasonal quarter of the year and commercials are already net short -182,000 contracts, at the one standard deviation point of the last 3 year's average. I like the zone between $1,757 and $1,677 in gold. With a close below $1,752 I'll be forced to hedge a possible decline to protect long term positions.
Cheers, take care
Pantheo
