Miners bull trend resumes. for AMEX:GDXJ by JAY_c5velm

After this week I´m convinced we have seen the bottom in gold stocks.
From here on, prices will go up and retrace, but making higher lows.
I think we´ll probably face two phases.

1) From here to the end of August, GDXJ will go up and retrace a few times until they surpass the previous high. I expect GDXJ 61-62$ Tuesday - Wednesday.
(63$ or more would need gold to reach almost previous high). Keep an eye close. After this top, a retracement back to 58-59$ for next week, and up again.
I´ll pay attention that price don't fall the big channel. I seriously would be surprise if it does. The trend to the upside is very strong.

2) After that, prices should flow alike June, until the end of September, inside a tiny channel. From the 21th of September on, I should pay special attention, because i believe prices would begin to behave "toppy", like past two weeks. Gaps up, and drops, new highs also, and the last week of September or the first of October the Top.
I expect GDXJ around 90 $ (86 to 96) in those dates.
And Gold around 2.300 also at the end of September.
It's early, but this is a possible road map following previous patterns. I'm totally convince in a bullish scenario, after August (for example). If it fit this one it would be just coincidence.

If prices fall from the channel, a bearish scenario. I don't believe it would happen, but Mr. Market doesn't care what I believe.
And after that....well, If we reach the 90s...the we could correct and come back to the 60s. It happened before. But that is another tale, and we are far from there.

Have a nice week and good luck.

Comment:

Sold Short Positions (JDST) and enter long.
Lets see

Comment:

Toro (Bull)

The FORCE of the TREND.
(although there is always danger outside)

Comment:

I expect an up day tomorrow, for gold and gold stocks. If so, that would be the confirmation of the idea. That is, a new up-leg in miners and gold. Probably gold will move wild again in the upside and we could see two or three days up with strength, gaps in the opening and so. It's very important to notice that gold stocks are very undervalued with gold.
What does it mean? As gold rises, gold stocks will rise even more. That's why i estimate we will only need 2300 $ gold to reach 90 or something more in GDXJ.

Comment:

I'm NOT going to sell my long positions.
(from my point of view market is going up, if not today, Monday).
The only risk in this market is being short. If you hold GDXJ stocks. It's ok.
I would not worry. (But that is Me).
I don't know if it will reverse today. Possible, but i don't know

Comment:

We are at the the end of a corrective cycle that would end next Monday. That means that the bottom if it is not today it would be on Monday.
So far things are going as the idea with higher lows.
Are Gold stocks underporming? Yes. That's what they do during corrections y bull markets. When we enter an expansion cycle, GoldStocks will outperform. And that will begin to happen once the correction ends. That means days with large gains while gold doesn't move so fast.
Meanwhile, patient. The positive thing is how gold react today. That's a bullish signal. Patient is key. Good luck

Comment:

I like to look at the Gold Sector as a whole, even though I only trade GDXJ because of its explosive volatility. So from my analysis, my technical analysis, at this moment (this point is very important), at this moment, gold and miners don''t have ROOM to more falling (I mean serious falling, not a morning dew). If they do (and is also possible), that would invalidate THAT THE SECTOR is in a MULTIYEAR UP TREND (from my point of view). And this is something big. It simply can not happen, because the evidence (TECHNICAL evidence) is that WE are.
This is my view, and only got it by throwing lines over a chart... so I can be wrong. It obvious. But If I am wrong, and I could be, I would have to check many things of my work.
We always have to be cautious, but AT THIS TIME, I´m totally convince we´ll begin a new leg next week.

Comment:

For the coming week, beginning the 24th, I expect Monday a reversal day, with the beginning of a new uptrend. At the end of this week, maybe Thursday or Friday I believe GDXJ will reach the 65$ level (could go over the previous high, but is not necessary), and that would mean Gold is at previous top. So we will begin to hear "Double Top" everywhere, which means many people believe that a drop (big drop) is around the corner...and they could be right, although I don't think so. Anyway, prudence is always needed. So a drop (a small one) will come.
After that top, a drop, that I don't think will go under 61 $-62 $, maybe on Tuesday next week. In this scenario drops will be fast and they will reverse soon.
Think that this Monday we are at a similar situation as the 18th June. And I expect a ride like that one, which ended beginning of August.
I´ll stay alert if I see something I don't like, mainly tomorrow.
If finally things go this way or similar, I´m NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY SHORT POSITION, trying to catch intermediate tops. The rise will be sharp and at any moment reverse, so it´s not worth. You have to be "expert" and lucky to take profits shorting, and they will be small. It´s not worth. In fact If anyone consider himself semi-professorial would do it in this circumstances.
What I would do, if I believe a top is near is sell my long (leverage in my case) and enter again. In case I fail, I will only gain less, but never lose.
If you BUY and HOLD, think you have to deal with retracements of 6% 7% or more. You can estimate then from the previous leg in June and expect some similar market behavior.
I will update when I plan to make a market move. Everybody should do that.
I hope it helps, and I hope things goes this way.
Have a nice week and good luck to you all.

Comment:

I tried to say that any professional o good trader would short in these circumstances.
( I didn't explain well)

Comment:

We should never try to fight.
- The power of Love.
- The force of Gravity. If you throw yourself from the 9th floor of a building, and you expect to rebound three times, clean some dust from your clothes with the reverse of your hand and continue walking...well you are a bit optimistic.
- The Current of a river. If you swing against it, the best can happen to you is to appear down the river, but the most probably is that someone finds you under the water.
- And finally....THE TREND of a MARKET. You´ll lose your money day after day.

Comment:

I´m HOLDING. Pacient. This business is not easy.

Comment:

We have passed our last rainy day. This is a bottom (important bottom) in from a daily time frame down to other. That means we have a lot of space for the run up.
The next top wont be this week (i would be surprise).
I´m fully invested long with JNUG at 144,45$
Today it was at 130.66 $ (almost a 10% down). It's ok. I mean, I've been there before many times. The question is I know I´m in the right side.
And the market does what he whats.
Today was a capitulation day.
So from now on, we'll have sun (like in Texas)

Comment:

Ride the Trend. Always Focus in the Long Term
This is market noise...from the Fed
Next week about 65 again, early for the day, maybe middle week

And this is good noise

Trade active:

The wise and smart thing to do is to follow the trend.
This leg could probably end the first week of October, between 90 $ and 100 $ GDXJ. So if you are new or don't have a trading system (reliable), hold and protect your profits with a Stop Lose.
Once we get there, it will be TIME to EXIT. TO SELL. And wait to enter again with a discount (15-20% discount at least) in prices.
It is said that is more important to decide when to sell than when to buy, mainly because knowing how to sell will avoid your loses. But it is also important to think than there is always a time to take the money out of the table (even if you buy and hold). Because it's yours and if you don't do it, others will. That time will be at the end of this leg (on my opinion).
During this journey we can expect retracement over 5% in GDXJ. In the previous leg, we had four, from 5,4 % to 6,5 %. These retracements are not "Shortable", and it's not clear if they are also tradable, while holding GDXJ.
As I use leverage products, I will do trade them (even though I can fail). In case I fail I will no lose any money, because I will not short the market. So I will sell my position at that level (late Wednesday or early Thursday)
So I expect late this Wednesday or Thursday to reach the 65 $ level. That would be a "small top", from where we could retrace to the 61,5 $ (more or less). That bottom could happen someday between Friday and Wednesday 9th. Monday 7th markets are closed. But it will be something fast.
So let say that on Thursday the top of the day is higher that on Wednesday, and it is 65,73$ (for example). Early on Friday I would place a buy order for GDXJ at 62,44 $ (5% discount) to be executed the following days (whenever from Friday to Wednesday next week). I mean, I´m not going to wait and see...I will anticipate it.
That my idea.
Good Luck

Comment:

Almost forget...

Trade active:

With the small retracement of today, i will hold my positions and do nothing.
I mean, I don't expect a "local top" so soon. Just keep rising at its pace.
So hold is what I consider the best option.

Comment:

From my point of view, we are now at the same state as the 25th of June. The spike we had the 23th of June is the one we had yesterday, and it was the one I was expecting tomorrow. So I consider we have pass it and from here we "should" go on rising, till the 14 th September. Maybe there we have pull back (6%-8% )and then go on till the end of the month, rising.
This is my scenario. But still I have to find the a narrow channel for this leg. I guess is similar in width to the one in June. Similar behavior.
Good Luck.

Comment:

I hope market don't disagree with me, but we are entering in the Flow Phase of September, where gold stocks will increase in a "continuous" way. I have to find the pace, the channel. I don´t know right now if they will do it as the did on June of slower.
I share my thoughts abouts how difficult is to pick retracements in the phase. Here is the first example where I fail (I didn't try it). Expected later (tomorrow) but happened yesterday, ended today. About 6%
Gaps filled also.

Comment:

I think we will see the same market behavior from past June (more or less).
With that Hypothesis:
1) The Chanel from here to the TOP, will have the same slope (log scale chart)
2) The same width
3) The top line will join the tops from last week (59,85) and this week and the bottom line will be parallel crossing today's bottom (56,84).
4) The rate of price increase inside the channel the same as June.

If all this occurs...the projection is that we can expect and intermediate top middle week 14th September, with GDXJ about 72 or so....
Pull backs (6-8%) at that level....
So this is the idea I will follow for the next two weeks.

Comment:

And another possibility is that we still are as we where the 21 of June, before a sharp rise to the previous top..in this case the 65$ level.....
Lets see

Comment:

the 18th of June...

Trade active:

I will update the idea as the move goes on. If there is something interesting from now to the weekend, I´ll do it in the weekend. From my point of view, the more than expected move up is finally beginning. It took some more time ( a week or more) but here we are.
Target has not changed, only dates. We may get into October (first half) probably. But let see. For my JNUG, about 320 $ or so. For GDXJ, at around 90$
But we'll go on with an eye on them.
Good Luck and Patient.

Trade active:

Patient. Is the only thing to do. Maybe some drop and some more up at the beginning of the week. The range is narrowing, so time is less for the move. The good point is that the larger the consolidation (base) the larger the move up.
I did not made any change, trade so far.
Let see how things go. Good luck.

Miners bull trend resumes.

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