4xForecaster

Chart: Predictive Analysis | #DAX #GER30

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
2133 10 1
Chart: Predictive Analysis | #DAX #GER30


4xQ'ers,

Potential resistance lurks near the 10037 level, corresponding to a proprietary pattern projecting a probable reversal level at that level. Use caution and do your due diligence.

Cheers,


David Alcindor | 4xQuad.com
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
03 JUN 2014 - Chart update:

Price is nearing target that was set as far back as 13 NOV 2013 (Facebook time-stamped forecast and first target hit here: http://on.fb.me/181RF0B).

At this point, the predictive analysis and forecasting remains unchanged, as TG-Hi = 10037 represents a high-probability level of reversal.


TG-1 = 7568 - 13 NOV 2013 also remains intact, and would represent the next probable bearish target with above scenario plays out.

and

TG-2 = 6081 - 13 NOV 2013 represents the next probable target (not shown in the chart above, but defined in the shared link)


Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
I have short position on GER30 at 9780, with a SL at 10080 and TP at 9020. As you expect a reversal at 10037, do you think my SL is enough, and how severe do you think the reversal would be? Kind regards, Hamed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - Unfortunately, I cannot advise any trader on the placement of their own SL, simply because it really depends on the risk tolerance and the value of your account.

I recommend to set a SL based on the predefined dollar value of tolerable loss. What I mean here is that before placing a trade, the trader should already know how much of a loss each and everyone trade can incur, and how much of a fraction it represents in relation to the whole.

I recently explained that this fraction should be predefined as a percentage, which is classically 3% (mainly because the studies that were conducted on the best percentage of risk demonstrated that losses were not precipitating an account to complete eradication, and growth was sustainable over time, as long as the percentage was set at 3%).

I understand how frustrating it might be to be told the same thing over and over again about "planning your trade, then trading your plan", or how important it is to know your SL before defining your TP, but these are often shared knowledge by traders who, by virtue of sharing these simple wisdoms, are living proofs of surviving the game with simple and robust rules, such as these.

If you play poker for instance, and you know that you have a handsome hand (say, a pair of aces), then it is likely that you might bet more than you'd feel comfortable if instead you only had a pair of jacks, right?

In this poker analogy, what you are calculating is a risk of loss, which is simply calculated intuitively by the number of times you are allowing yourself to play again IF you were to lose that handsome pair of aces against, say a royal flush.

So, intuitively, you are either betting all ("all in"), with the clear understanding that you are going home with no money if you lose. Or, you decide to bet a fraction of the pile of cash you own, and this will determine how many more times you get to play, such that betting half will let you play a total of two games given the same cards, or simply betting 1/10th will allow you to play 10 x 1/10 = 1, or ten more times that same hand.

So, in the same example, betting only 3% would allow you to play 3 x 33 = 99, or thirty three more times the same hand.

In Forex, if you have the same "hand", i..e: the same strategy which you know gives you an advantage ("an edge"), then you are capable to play so many times as to end up keeping your equity curve up and rising over time.

So, to make a long story short, keep that SL at about 3% of your total account value, so that you keep a chance to remain in the game. There is no loss in not playing, but there is no learning in playing as well if the lessons are too shorts, simply because the student of the market did not manage to risk only tiny fractions of his ticket rides.

I hope this makes sense.

David Alcindor
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
Dear David, Thanks for the detailed explanation. Currently I am risking 2% of my trading capital on this particular trade, however I usually trade 1% or even less. I would be thankful if you share any prediction you might have on a potential reversal target. Thanks again for your time. Kind regards, Hamed
+1 Reply
06 JUN 2014 - Chart Update:

Price is approaching target ever so slowing and closely - Quite an interesting development, but no new technical commentary here. If the reversal is set to occur, it will be interesting to see what fundamental driver will be defined as a culprit.

snapshot


David Alcindor
Reply
Chart Update: High Target Hit

As indicated in earlier analysis, the targets are laid out as announced in this original forecast: http://on.fb.me/181RF0B, dating back to November 2013.

At this point, there is a high-probability that a reversal would occur at the current level. While this remains speculative, considering the strength of that market that buoyed price to this loft target, a proprietary pattern directs the next directional bias of this analysis.



1 - Chart-1: DAX - DAILY chart showing the next bearish target - A lower target also exists, as forecast here http://on.fb.me/181RF0B on November 2013
snapshot



2 - Chart-2: DAX - WEEKLY chart shows the entire trade and forecast price action:
snapshot



I expect price to consolidate at the current level. I recommend the technical trader to watch for higher-highs limited by Fib-based levels. 1.131 and 1.414 are not uncommon reversal levels when higher highs are carved out egainst general market expectation.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
13 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$DAX / #GER30: Model confirms weakness since target hit; Reversal at TG-Hi per forecast is probable:
Chart: Predictive Analysis | #DAX  #GER30
| @tradingview "

Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
snapshot


David Alcindor
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks for update. I was going to ask you for an update. Isn't 7568 level something that the world should get worried about? Appreciate your time and great contributions. Hamed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - The target is based on a prop pattern, and not based on fundamentals.

As of now, there is an increasing number of institutions that consider the US market to be overvalued, while others are looking at other concerning events in the world, such that the Chinese real estate market, the peripheral bond markets in Europe, as well as other major geopolitical events that may impact the financial markets as a whole.

So, there is more to worry now then there should be in the future where things tend to to resolve. If indeed, there is such a depreciation of most markets - as it is believed by some that it would occur soon.

If the chart is true and price finds support at such an abysmal level, then I would expect that such support would occur with some geopolitical improvement.

For now, there is no certainty in the world, and none in this chart. Only time will play as a story-teller for both.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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