$DAX Eyes 10052 | #GER30 $EUR $USD #ECB #Forex

FX:GER30   DAX Index


As we looked at different perspectives during the coiling geometry, which we proposed to belong to the Elliott Wave's Running Flat breed, we looked into the internal geometry of this Flat to determine a maximal level at which price would likely reverse and complete that time-consuming Flat pattern.

Turns out that simple geometric             analysis held its ground, as price neared, but remains aloft the 9578 reversal level. At this point, price's bars suggests that momentum has gained further velocity, which helped it surpass Point-B of this Flat, thus completing this intermediate geometry.


At this point, we are looking at further upside. The Predictive/Forecasting Model is now providing a firm target, elevating a potential reversal target to a slightly higher level than the prior Triple-Top, namely:

- TG-Hi = 10052 - 18 SEP 2014

Although this target is a Qual-Target (i.e.: associated with deep retracement greater than 0.618 or mere reversal where price would be pushed to turn around and carve new structures high/low), the presence of the Triple-Top may represent a confounding event for the Model. Nonetheless, the target value should remain intact.


As price uncoils from a recent consumptive geometry, it is recovering into a dynamic reactive rally, surpassing the prior high of the coiled geometry and aims to carve out a new high per Predictive/Forecasting Model.

For those who have been following my analysis of $DAX, you will remember that a TG-Hi = 10037 was defined on 22 JAN 2014. At a current 10052, the new target should only be construed as a refinement of the same - Link to analysis from January 22nd, 2014: .


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
David, in your style, just an observation of possible pattern repeat in larger scale. Your thoughts?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster fximperija
Hello @ fximperija - yes, the 0.786 retracement is a possibility on a pure change basis. However, on a pure technical basis, the bulls are not here yet to change the tides. The predictive.forecasting model remains bearish and sees further downside for the time being. I will post a WEEKLY chart with a high-probability bearish target and an EWP overlay, to illustrate that I mean.

+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Hi David! Its very intersting for me to see your EWP analysis. In my view if DAX start IMP down, then maybe we are in wave 3, which means that neck line will not test
+1 Reply
Hello @ nikokoev - Right now, we can assume with some confidence that $DAX has started its Elliott Wave's 3rd wave down.

Your mark at 1.618-Fib extension should also be gauge with a wider-screen internal Fib retracement, so as to highlight any potential cluster.

In this folllowing chart, your 1.618-Fib extension and the larger 38.2-Fib retracement are not even close enough to get excited about - Except that the model is this Fib retracement are perfectly well aligned, which means that this is NOT a Fib cluster, but a high-degree of confirmation for the predictive/forecasting model:

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Very nice David. I dont now how to mount my question. Is it better whole IMP from smaller time frame to complete at fib level from bigger one. Not just wave 3. Thank you!
+1 Reply
@nikokoev - Yes, sticking to a smaller timeframe is fine and in fact recommended. I typically trade off of the H4, fine-tune off of the M15, but look at the prevailing winds off of the Daily. It's very much like sailing your own little dingy boat in an infinite ocean. There will always be one higher timeframe to look at to the horizons, and a lower timeframe to look inside the galley -Everything else is simple harmonic motion and noisy waves.

David Alcindor
Hi David. Would be grateful if I have your comment on my analysis?
HamedAghajani HamedAghajani
DAX is in the process of a short term relief rally to upside. The levels of resistance are defined on the weekly chart. Bullish divergence has been seen on the daily RSI. Looking for the RSI on 90 minute to test the 45-period Moving average to go long.
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani HamedAghajani
+1 Reply
4xForecaster HamedAghajani

(please, be make sure to post the chart in a way that they appear, as opposed to posting a link, so that it's easier to scroll through and share with everyone)

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