4xForecaster
Long

$DAX Eyes 10052 | #GER30 $EUR $USD #ECB #Forex

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
Friends,


INTERMEDIATE GEOMETRY COMPLETES:

As we looked at different perspectives during the coiling geometry, which we proposed to belong to the Elliott Wave's Running Flat breed, we looked into the internal geometry of this Flat to determine a maximal level at which price would likely reverse and complete that time-consuming Flat pattern.

Turns out that simple geometric             analysis held its ground, as price neared, but remains aloft the 9578 reversal level. At this point, price's bars suggests that momentum has gained further velocity, which helped it surpass Point-B of this Flat, thus completing this intermediate geometry.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL DEFINES FURTHER UPSIDE:

At this point, we are looking at further upside. The Predictive/Forecasting Model is now providing a firm target, elevating a potential reversal target to a slightly higher level than the prior Triple-Top, namely:

- TG-Hi = 10052 - 18 SEP 2014

Although this target is a Qual-Target (i.e.: associated with deep retracement greater than 0.618 or mere reversal where price would be pushed to turn around and carve new structures high/low), the presence of the Triple-Top may represent a confounding event for the Model. Nonetheless, the target value should remain intact.


OVERALL:

As price uncoils from a recent consumptive geometry, it is recovering into a dynamic reactive rally, surpassing the prior high of the coiled geometry and aims to carve out a new high per Predictive/Forecasting Model.

For those who have been following my analysis of $DAX, you will remember that a TG-Hi = 10037 was defined on 22 JAN 2014. At a current 10052, the new target should only be construed as a refinement of the same - Link to analysis from January 22nd, 2014:
Chart: Predictive Analysis | #DAX  #GER30
.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
19 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GER30 completed an #elliottwave Regular Flat; Hit First Trigger level ... BULLISH?

snapshot


via @tradingview | #GER30 $EUR
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
23 SEP 2014 - Note:

Daily notes, technical commentaries, lessons and pearls will be provided in the "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chat room. Feel free to follow these added details there (Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO). Only significant technical events will be posted in this present discussion thread, so as to avoid too much unnecessary technical information for the trader and chartist interested only in major technical events.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
trandom
2 years ago
David, so now it should go up now for new highs?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO trandom
2 years ago
@trandom - Price seems to be completing an Expanded Flat. I would expect rallying to occur around these levels, although I am surprised it did not reached any lower, considering corrective pattern's Point-B (Expanded Flat) outer position - David
Reply
24 SEP 2014 - Update;

From Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Chat Room - Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO
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snapshot



"Following a target-hit @ 9858, price rolled to answer to TG- = 9572. It has since moved on up.

Overhead targets, and continuation into higher highs remain the objective here, per Model.

David"
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Hi David. Would be grateful if I have your comment on my analysis?
snapshot
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
DAX is in the process of a short term relief rally to upside. The levels of resistance are defined on the weekly chart. Bullish divergence has been seen on the daily RSI. Looking for the RSI on 90 minute to test the 45-period Moving average to go long.
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Counter trend trade opportunities are developing on DAX
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Counter trend trade opportunities are developing on DAX


(please, be make sure to post the chart in a way that they appear, as opposed to posting a link, so that it's easier to scroll through and share with everyone)

David
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. sorry, I intended to do the same way that you did
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
@HamedAghajani - That was my mistake. I did not see that the URL was the same as the chart you had already posted - David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@HamedAghajani - Sorry, I realized that you already did post it. My bad - David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
@HamedAghajani - It is a very difficult exercise for me to review trader's analysis, simply because a lot of the concepts you are using I do not believe in.

I used to give courses on divergence in RSI, showing how BULLISH divergences belong to BEARISH trends, and how BEARISH divergences belong to BULLISH trends.

There are only a few conditions that have to be met where such divergence will be associated with an actual retracement or reversal in price.

I realize that this is a difficult concept for most traders, since the institutional inculcations have made sure that this fact remains obscure. Welles Wilder, author of this indicator, supposedly never suggested that these divergence should be associated with a reversal, but that instead, there are associated with a counter-trend (that is a bullish divergence would be associated with a bearish trend, and vice-versa).

A book was written about this concept by John Hayden, a student of Andrew Cardwell, who is himself a former student of Welles Wilder. I contacted Andrew Cardwell once. He informed me that John Hayden was once his student and "plagiarized" the information from his course, where he clearly demonstrated this concept.

As far as moving averages, I rarely use them unless I need to demonstrate a concept that is widely shared, or convince more traditional technicians on a concept where MA can support my analyses.

The CBIDX is Mrs. Constance "Connie" Brown indicator. It has to be used in conjunction with the RSI (set at 14). She developed this indicator to screen for discrepancies where RSI and her indicator diverge.

In my review of these RSI/CBIDX convergences, I noted that many of them were associated with Negative/Positive Divergences, which is a rarer and more accurate cousin to the Bullish/Bearish Divergences.

Lastly: Ichimoku is a relatively recent indicator that I do not use.

Looking at my own charts, I can say with some degree of confidence that bulls have given up (for now) on any possible advance (following are the three charts I recall posting in TradingView):


$DAX - Daily Chart:
snapshot

This DAILY chart was used initially when I posted a target ("TG-Hi - 10037 - 22 JAN 14 - Euclid") for $DAX. It has since been hit and price rolled to define a decisively bearish course.

A lower target defined as "TG-2 = 7568 - 22 JAN 14" was also posted back on January 22nd, 2014 when the initial analysis was released. Here is the link to earlier analyses (dates back to "8 months ago"):

Chart: Predictive Analysis | #DAX #GER30
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Chart: Predictive Analysis | #DAX  #GER30


$DAX - Weekly Chart:
snapshot



OVERALL, $DAX has assumed a bearish tack. The probability is now MUCH higher that it would decline further rather than rise at this time. As per original analysis, the TG-Hi defined a high-probability reversal with a proprietary geometry have called "Euclid".

In a subsequent analysis, I decided to lean on the possibility of an Elliott Wave's flat expression. However, the original analysis, which was based on my predictive/forecasting model and a separate proprietary pattern overlay ("EuclidPattern") have maintained their validity.

So, at this point, the new chart to consider should be the one released back in January, which is based on the following analysis:

-
Chart: Predictive Analysis | #DAX  #GER30


Here is where the price resides at this point:

snapshot




OVERALL: Looking at your chart, while a short-term relief rally may be possible, price remains weighed down by bears. So, any such rally would most possibly occur within a limited upside Fib range (0.382 to 0.618 would be such typical range, whereas a serious bearish entrenchment would cap price at the 0.786-Fib mark).

It is my opinion that you should either turn to Andrew Cardwell teachings (I never took his course, and I conducted my own RSI research and discoveries, so I cannot speak on his behalf about anything else, except to recommend that you abandon the divergence concept that so may other traders relies aupon - Yes, it will work in the examples provided by the institutions that keep on perpetrating this error, and yes, there is a very limited and well-defined set of conditions in which such divergence will produce the expected results. But, the overarching rule is that of its author, who says that bearish divergences are associated with bullish trends, and bullish divergences are associated with bearish trends. Not my rule, but definitely my experience).

Cheers,


David Alcindor

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David Thanks for your detailed comments. Regards, Hamed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here is a much older target defined back in 2013 - I have re-drawn the chart as follows. Link to chart where 2013 targeting of TG-2 was defined is here:

- http://on.fb.me/181RF0B


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
fximperija
2 years ago
David, in your style, just an observation of possible pattern repeat in larger scale. Your thoughts?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO fximperija
2 years ago
Hello @ fximperija - yes, the 0.786 retracement is a possibility on a pure change basis. However, on a pure technical basis, the bulls are not here yet to change the tides. The predictive.forecasting model remains bearish and sees further downside for the time being. I will post a WEEKLY chart with a high-probability bearish target and an EWP overlay, to illustrate that I mean.

David
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David! Its very intersting for me to see your EWP analysis. In my view if DAX start IMP down, then maybe we are in wave 3, which means that neck line will not test
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO nikokoev
2 years ago
Hello @ nikokoev - Right now, we can assume with some confidence that $DAX has started its Elliott Wave's 3rd wave down.

Your mark at 1.618-Fib extension should also be gauge with a wider-screen internal Fib retracement, so as to highlight any potential cluster.

In this folllowing chart, your 1.618-Fib extension and the larger 38.2-Fib retracement are not even close enough to get excited about - Except that the model is this Fib retracement are perfectly well aligned, which means that this is NOT a Fib cluster, but a high-degree of confirmation for the predictive/forecasting model:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Very nice David. I dont now how to mount my question. Is it better whole IMP from smaller time frame to complete at fib level from bigger one. Not just wave 3. Thank you!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO nikokoev
2 years ago
@nikokoev - Yes, sticking to a smaller timeframe is fine and in fact recommended. I typically trade off of the H4, fine-tune off of the M15, but look at the prevailing winds off of the Daily. It's very much like sailing your own little dingy boat in an infinite ocean. There will always be one higher timeframe to look at to the horizons, and a lower timeframe to look inside the galley -Everything else is simple harmonic motion and noisy waves.

David Alcindor
Reply
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