timwest

Bear Market in German's DAX Index, off 22% currently, leads SPY

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
2037 22 27
The DAX             has peaked before the SPY             (blue line) in the two big bear market drops of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009.

And the DAX             peaked first in this recent peak and bear market, off 24.7% at the lows and off 22+% now.

The US market is nearly 90% correlated to the DAX             , but the DAX             has had deeper corrections. You can see all of the bear markets on the chart. They are labeled in red areas.

What is the odds that the German market ( DAX             ) will be higher in 6 months from now? Reply with your opinion.

Cheers.

Tim
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timwest PRO
a year ago
And the whole rally appears to be an 5-wave pattern - which might catch some attention at some point!
snapshot
+1 Reply
timwest PRO timwest
a year ago
Wave 3 of 3 is not very "impulsive" - which is a problem with this count
+1 Reply
timwest PRO timwest
a year ago
Given the lack of IMPULSIVE action in wave 3 of 3, here is the alternative count, which makes more sense...
snapshot
+1 Reply
timwest PRO timwest
a year ago
I'm just posting this as I put it together - so - feel free to comment. I don't OFTEN use EW in my analysis as I only really trust Glenn Neely of www.neowave.com to confirm EW patterns. No one in the world is better at EW than him. I've seen his work for 27 years and if there is anyone that can prove that they are more accurate than him, then I will lay down my sword.
+3 Reply
Copywryter06 timwest
a year ago
Dax futures looking strong
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NachiketApte timwest
a year ago
will be tough to put in a rally under wave 5 imho. for the rally to come about euro will have to fall to 1.0
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Thanks Tim, I have the same view. Big wave IV could test 8000 low( day close points no more than 50% of wave (3) ) and big wave V could reach above 13000 after weaker Euro and US rate hike. If Euro bounces to 1.2000 or XAU bounces to 1200 will trigger those too. Sadly after that, the whole world gonna fall to 7000 points bc of inflation.
DAX and Euro
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I don't think we will see a prolonged bear market, due to ECB intervention. I believe equities are vulnerable right now but it wont continue forever. I can't understand why there is a bigger fall in European equities rather than American, after all the ECB is in an easing process while the US is preparing for liftoff. I call for a higher DAX in 6 months.
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snapshot


By the month of March April 2016 we can expect it to 8550, this is on the basis of Fibonacci time and retracement analysis.
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timwest PRO dhananjay.d.joshi
a year ago
We can watch each day - 9622 is roughly the level that marks the most frequent price level in the advance, so it is clear support. We can't get to 8550 until we get under 9622, so I'd watch that level very closely. Watch how the market absorbs news and reacts to market action around the world. That strong spike down to 8500 that reversed last time is a sure sign of strong support there throughout that range. Thanks for posting your analysis Dhananjay.
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dhananjay.d.joshi timwest
a year ago
Thank you. I got it.
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dhananjay.d.joshi timwest
a year ago
We are below your mentioned level. Need to c the folloup.
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Nice analysis. my friend.
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dhananjay.d.joshi PooyaSalehipour
a year ago
This was for whom?
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Dragon1 PooyaSalehipour
a year ago
what is your idea about dax?
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amosky
a year ago
hi. i disagree. i think the dax along with other indexes is in the process of base building. if it can hold at or a little below these levels, we could have a strong rally into the year end. let's see. )
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-38% from ATH would put Dax at 7500.I can live with that :)
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Dragon1
a year ago
I think 9300 low of dax I call for a higher DAX in 6 months too
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
For less sensitive, I updated my chart and this is what DAX looks like in a log scale.If Euro's low reaches 0.85 DAX could run more above 13000 to 14000-15000. There is no "TIME" at all in the universe time is a kind of human feeling market targets could be achieved quickly by volatility. Be careful with YEN, some people are risking Japan so JPY is gonna to be risk.
DAX and Euro
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timwest PRO Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Log chart definitely helps the look of the long term trend.
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Victor.Y.F timwest
a year ago
Thank you sir, people must be positive bc human civilization is creative.
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mazdaki PRO
a year ago
nice presentation.
Reply
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