techpers

Speculative Idea: Sell GFI

Short
JSE:GFI   GOLD FIELDS LTD
Published to our client platform pre-market. For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch with me today.

Please Read The Full Note For Specific Detail: Speculative, high risk trading opportunity thus smaller positions may be applicable. Preferred Sell Above 24400c. Following it's strong, multi-week run, the price action and technical momentum ratings suggest the potential for a slowdown in upward momentum, followed by a short term bearish reversal. The past two days have seen 2 'doji' candles being printed (potentially reflecting indecision) while several time frames point to an overbought position. Specifically, the 7 and 14-day RSI's are at 92 and 83 respectively. Price Action Scenario #1: The share opens and trades higher on an intraday basis, however, fails to hold above the highs of the prior two sessions. Failure to hold above 24200c supports the thesis that upward momentum is slowing. Price Action Scenario #2: The share opens lower and attempts to trade above the last close on an intraday basis. Failure to push back above 24100c would support a bearish stance. Last night we saw a risk on in the U.S which may see a temporary (ultra short term) slowdown in the 'safe-haven buying' in gold. Closing above 24800c would temporarily invalidate the idea. This is NOT the stop-loss but rather the pivot that would maintain the thesis for the bulls. Time Stop: 30 May 2023. Please Note: Following the publication of this idea, potential macroeconomic or company specific news may influence the price action dynamics of the share. To manage risk traders could also consider using a trailing stop-loss to protect capital and scale out of the position as price approaches the target (ideally above 60% to 70% of the intended gain).

TRADING LEVELS:
Entry: 24400
Target: 22200
Stop-loss: 25900
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