NaughtyPines

GLD -- RETHINKING MY "STRENGTH" AREA

AMEX:GLD   SPDR GOLD SHARES
gld
27 0 2
gld
Before I put on an ill-fated iron condor in GLD             , the short call vertical side of which was at 111/114, I was fairly confident that 111 was an area of strength in which short call spreads should be sold. Post-July 2015 precious metals dump, GLD             , after all, failed to clear 114 and looked like it was going to break 100. But after the December low near 100, we've broken viciously to the upside, touching the .236 Fib from the 9/2011 high to the December low (shown by red arrow) (hey, sometimes traders actually respond to these long-term Fibs).

GLD             has taken a short breather in the up move and currently hovers below 120, post 2/8 test of that .236 Fib. Although I'm fine with the fact that price has broken through my short call spread at 111/114 (I'll work through the trade by rolling the short call side and selling of oppositional short put spreads against for a credit), the question for me is: "Well, where is your strength area now, smartypants?"

For purposes of selling short call spreads going forward, I think it's the area we're in right now in the absence of a break of the 120 level, so I'm going to look at selling short call spreads north (but well clear of 120) and preferably clear of the next Fib up at 132 or so (if you can get a decent credit for doing so).
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