83% probability trade on Gold

330 5
With a 6.5% move up in the last 27 days and also increase in volatility . I made a Call Ratio spread in addition to the other trades I already have in GLD , including a double diagonal and a strangle.

Doing this trade alone is as high probability trade with a 83% chance to make money.

Max win per contract is $250

Bought one 123 Call for every two 125 for a .50 credit.

I did 2 of those, so the trade would be:

+2 123 Call
-4 125 Put
Max win $500
Trade active: This trade is already on profit and at max win to the downside, so if anyone took this trade alone, it can be closed for a nice win.

I am leaving the trade just because I still have the double diagonal on, and rolled the put side up to reduce my cost basis.
Trade closed: target reached
I see a technical breakout on 4/11 with strong volume. Finally broke through big resistance. RSI now breaching oversold as of today which could be a sign for a quick short. But there is a strong up-trend in-tact and equity market fundamentals are weak IMO. If you got burned on your short today, tomorrow could be the day! I'm long JNUG.
@MeowNow, You could be right and thanks for your input. However the max profit of this trade is at 125, and our losing zone is above the R3 monthly Pivot and just below the 88.6 Fib of the previous big down move. The up move would have to correct at some point, either to pull back to the resistance point you are talking about (around 121) or it might slow down at the 78.6 Fib level (around our max profit zone), the idea is that even if we are wrong on direction, time can do the dirty work for us and give us a chance to take profits.

MeowNow AlexanderGotay
@AlexanderGotay, Right on, good luck!
I like this. In fact I will place it myself!
@AdrianM, Yes, we are playing the probabilities and even in the worst case scenario its an easy trade to defend.
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