Keurig Green Mountain - GMCR - Daily - Rally In Downtrend = Sell

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The rally on news of a partnership with DPS             ( Dr             Pepper) is a relief rally to relieve the oversold condition from the last selloff. There are plenty of sellers to cap the advance and selling against those levels is a reasonable risk trade from here and much better from the 135-136 level using a 138-139 stop (very close stop).

Targeting the 127-125 area on the downside.

Earnings aren't for another 28 days.

Tim 2:35PM EST 1/7/2015
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i am not a mathematician, but i do know price can be doctored, but can derivative of price such as indicator be fabricated?
+1 Reply
timwest jangseohee
That is such a monster return in 15 years - to go from $0.20 to $120 is a lot of doubles....
9 doubles in 15 years is a double every 1.6+ years, which is a compound rate of return of over 40% per year.
+1 Reply
jangseohee timwest
What is Peter Lynch favorite word for such return? :-)
and buying already in...
+1 Reply
I hate when I put such a close stop to try to be a hero to everyone here - Use 3 ATR's to keep yourself in the game. Start small and build your position over time and as the idea works.
+3 Reply
jangseohee timwest
well, price did swing back just above neckline to take the stop loss but not me :-)
i know it too well, have had those experiences :-)
+1 Reply
jangseohee timwest
Everyone is ACCOUNTABLE for his/her own trade. There is no hero or zero here
my analysis just happen to be aligned to your's
+2 Reply
timwest jangseohee
Thanks jangseohee. I know very few people actually follow my trades and stops and targets. But this one just looks embarrassing where the market touches the stop and then heads to the target. I like how the stock fell to where I put the arrow on the earnings release date.

Here's an observation I will make: I bet that Coca Cola will be buying more GMCR down here over today and the next few days. They are the ones who were pushing the stock up to unrealistic levels on hopes of a new drink invention. So, by Monday (after today and two more days), look for an announcement from KO.
+1 Reply
jangseohee timwest
which also means Warren is buying?
BTW you're welcome
+2 Reply
Cheers Tim

+1 Reply
But why short GMCR?
Isn't Coffee the strong commodity?
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