Gold is Targeting #1,727.80, without surprises on Fed minutes
Gold's general commentary: Gold is under unprecedented Volatility on current session with Gold and the Futures price on a tight spread. This is of course the product of heavy speculation in the Metals market, fueled by the expectation that the Fed’s new tapering talks will be accepted and digested by all market classes. Needless to mention, this environment is not Gold friendly. I can't approach this situation Fundamentally but I do expect a pullback back towards #1,766.80 again, as the main Support and Higher Low’s zone, since Support cluster is nearby (#1,759.80 - #1,765.80). Hourly 4 chart’s Neutral Rectangle is invalidated but printed a fake recovery throughout yesterday's U.S. session as Price-action will most likely close the session below the first Support (indicating Selling in continuation). Despite Bond Yields (# +1.32) still not stabilized, the continuous soaring on DX and of course the parabolic rise on Usd-Jpy (near Quadruple Top), Gold hasn't made a new Lower Low’s yet (much expected #3rd Low’s extension) making me believe that the underlying trend remains Bearish and Price-action can start losing with every Hourly candle any minute early on today’s session. Further argument for it is that the Weekly chart is defending the bounce it made on Monday on the Weekly chart’s Resistance, as I doubt it will last. My advice for Short-term Traders is to Sell Gold on tight stops whenever you see pullbacks on Bond Yields (which is the case for now) - Selling every High strategy - keeping in mind that the Support on the Hourly 4 chart was always tested after every High since the start of #2020. Unless #1,795.80 is compromised (closing above), it will provide me with a steady Selling opportunity on which case may see #1,759.80 break and #1,727.80 (ultimate Bottom and demand zone, former #6 year Resistance) in extension.
Technical analysis: As I mentioned that the Weekly Price-action is attempting to cross below it’s Support zone #1,766.80 + and almost did it, DX taking strong hits and Bond Yields (after very possible Powell’s encouraging speech) should recover current losses, and add Selling pressure on Gold. As soon as those Trade favourably to my model, Gold will test #1,727.80 or Lower. Interesting variance last seen on January #29 - March #5. Price-action engaged decent decline, engaged semi-recovery, and delivered aggressive takedown which can be repeated at shortly as Gold is cyclical asset. If #1,795.80 is not recovered, Price-action will surely continue to emphasize a Bearish presence, as first Support line is seen Trading at #1,766.80. What’s also interesting about this level from a Technical perspective is that, not surprisingly, it goes precisely along Bond Yields and that’s the only parameter which keeps Gold on this levels. In the event, further Buying should not be on the cards, but if the Resistance is broken I’ll have to re-evaluate my strategy as Selling will be postponed, but not invalidated (only new Fed stance can revive Buyers, nothing else). Hourly 4 chart is giving me excellent Selling points and points out the underlying Bearish trend on Gold (both Short and Medium-term). Note that this descending level also pairs reasonably with the Weekly chart Resistance. Gold is a cautious market at the moment. With Buyers showing limited activity, I am certain in my configuration, as it would also be too much of a risk to contemplate Buying this market when the Resistance have yet to be convincingly consumed (practical suggestion to Buyers). Last time I spotted mentioned above cycle, Gold rose more than #185 points within #2-Month fractal. So patience is needed.
My position: Needles to mention, I was and currently am heavily on Selling side. I am expecting hawkish stance from the Fed, aswell I am confident that rate will remain unchanged, as Fed is pushed into a corner. Regarding the stance, if Fed's chair presents hawkish stance, Gold will engage the Medium-term meltdown. My plan is to Sell on spot if #1,766.80 Support breaks regardless of the outcome (#1,727.80 Lower Low's extension is my Target), and if Price-action dips throughout the session, I will move my Stop-loss on breakeven and monitor the Price-action throughout the Fed. However, if #1,766.80 remains unbroken, I will attempt to Sell near the Fed's minutes, with extremely tight Risk management, and await the speech as I am expecting aggressive takedown on Gold sooner or later. I am looking at an excellent chance to continue my Profits run number to #6 in a row.
Technical analysis: As I mentioned that the Weekly Price-action is attempting to cross below it’s Support zone #1,766.80 + and almost did it, DX taking strong hits and Bond Yields (after very possible Powell’s encouraging speech) should recover current losses, and add Selling pressure on Gold. As soon as those Trade favourably to my model, Gold will test #1,727.80 or Lower. Interesting variance last seen on January #29 - March #5. Price-action engaged decent decline, engaged semi-recovery, and delivered aggressive takedown which can be repeated at shortly as Gold is cyclical asset. If #1,795.80 is not recovered, Price-action will surely continue to emphasize a Bearish presence, as first Support line is seen Trading at #1,766.80. What’s also interesting about this level from a Technical perspective is that, not surprisingly, it goes precisely along Bond Yields and that’s the only parameter which keeps Gold on this levels. In the event, further Buying should not be on the cards, but if the Resistance is broken I’ll have to re-evaluate my strategy as Selling will be postponed, but not invalidated (only new Fed stance can revive Buyers, nothing else). Hourly 4 chart is giving me excellent Selling points and points out the underlying Bearish trend on Gold (both Short and Medium-term). Note that this descending level also pairs reasonably with the Weekly chart Resistance. Gold is a cautious market at the moment. With Buyers showing limited activity, I am certain in my configuration, as it would also be too much of a risk to contemplate Buying this market when the Resistance have yet to be convincingly consumed (practical suggestion to Buyers). Last time I spotted mentioned above cycle, Gold rose more than #185 points within #2-Month fractal. So patience is needed.
My position: Needles to mention, I was and currently am heavily on Selling side. I am expecting hawkish stance from the Fed, aswell I am confident that rate will remain unchanged, as Fed is pushed into a corner. Regarding the stance, if Fed's chair presents hawkish stance, Gold will engage the Medium-term meltdown. My plan is to Sell on spot if #1,766.80 Support breaks regardless of the outcome (#1,727.80 Lower Low's extension is my Target), and if Price-action dips throughout the session, I will move my Stop-loss on breakeven and monitor the Price-action throughout the Fed. However, if #1,766.80 remains unbroken, I will attempt to Sell near the Fed's minutes, with extremely tight Risk management, and await the speech as I am expecting aggressive takedown on Gold sooner or later. I am looking at an excellent chance to continue my Profits run number to #6 in a row.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
