#1,723.80 Support break can engage #1,700.80 Selling sequence
Gold's general commentary: Gold is currently being rejected just above the Higher Low trendline of the Daily chart’s Channel Down that started with the September #6 High. Within that Channel, the Price-action always tested the Support zone after strong Top rejection, so assuming no further Fundamental news breakout (and DX doesn't make a new Low or Bond Yields (near #3-Month High’s) continue the rejection towards new Support break), I don't see why this Daily chart’s fractal won't get repeated. #1,700.80 - #1,705.80 would be a fair estimate. If however #1,778.80 breaks, that would be a Bull breakout call towards the #1,792.80 (small chances for that configuration to develop subsequently). Gold is having Bearish sentiment since Fed minutes aftermath (hawkish), where DX still didn’t found the Support and engaged the recovery. Regardless, I am expecting #1,678.80 extension on the Medium-term run, and market closing below #1,732.80 confirms once again the Selling bias. Buying is strongly limited.
Technical analysis: Gold maintains the Selling sentiment from current Weekly Daily chart’s Support zone break, but the pace has slowed down as Gold should be already near #1,700.80 psychological barrier (fair estimate). The Hourly 4 chart’s indicators are showing that Gold is potentially Oversold and MACD is about to make a Bearish roll-over as I believe that I should start preparing ourselves for a slight pullback (Medium-term trend stays Bearish though especially on the Fed minutes aftermath and with the DX still critically Bullish, Bond Yields rejected on #3-Month Top zone). Next Support is priced at #1,722.80 / break of might extend the decline towards #1,700.80. Gold has extended solid Channel Down on Daily chart and if you recall, delivered #2 additional Lower Low’s (my chart’s explanation that Gold always delivers #3 Lower Low extensions ahead of full scale reversal). DX (# +0.63%) is again turning the market sentiment to Bearish (without arising Buyers) on the Short and Medium-term, and according to my estimations, current Selling sequence is due to the miraculous soaring on DX, which is being aggressively Bought due to the Repurchase agreements by the Fed. Always keep in mind that in times of Stock markets corrections/pull-backs, Investors tend to purchase the DX as a safe-haven (as it happened in March #2020), which has in turn a negative reaction on Gold (holding negative correlation for those #2). Subsequently adding to the configuration that Bond Yields are aswell on promising uptrend, Gold Traders may witness aggressive takedown towards #1,678.80 - #1,688.80 Lower Low extension (even this Trading week), which will trigger my #1,722.80 pending (Selling) orfders. But that largely depends upon the Fundamentals and how DX and Yields will continue the candles starting from today’s session. There are #2 possibilities ahead: #1) Gold closing below #1,732.80, invalidating #1,721.80 final Support ahead of #1,700.80 psychological barrier, where I will be ready to Sell on spot with multiple piercing Selling orders (#1,695.80 Target), and #2) Rejection on both DX and Bond Yields, where Gold may recover #5 - #10 points upwards where I will be ready to re-Sell Gold towards #1,721.80 first, and #1,700.80 in extension.
My position: I am currently without a position (comfortably monitoring the Price-action from sidelines), waiting for #1,723.80 final Support to break, where I will Sell on spot towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier. Regardless, I am not interested in Buying Gold on both Short and Medium-term. #1,741.80 should be final recovery and turning point.
Technical analysis: Gold maintains the Selling sentiment from current Weekly Daily chart’s Support zone break, but the pace has slowed down as Gold should be already near #1,700.80 psychological barrier (fair estimate). The Hourly 4 chart’s indicators are showing that Gold is potentially Oversold and MACD is about to make a Bearish roll-over as I believe that I should start preparing ourselves for a slight pullback (Medium-term trend stays Bearish though especially on the Fed minutes aftermath and with the DX still critically Bullish, Bond Yields rejected on #3-Month Top zone). Next Support is priced at #1,722.80 / break of might extend the decline towards #1,700.80. Gold has extended solid Channel Down on Daily chart and if you recall, delivered #2 additional Lower Low’s (my chart’s explanation that Gold always delivers #3 Lower Low extensions ahead of full scale reversal). DX (# +0.63%) is again turning the market sentiment to Bearish (without arising Buyers) on the Short and Medium-term, and according to my estimations, current Selling sequence is due to the miraculous soaring on DX, which is being aggressively Bought due to the Repurchase agreements by the Fed. Always keep in mind that in times of Stock markets corrections/pull-backs, Investors tend to purchase the DX as a safe-haven (as it happened in March #2020), which has in turn a negative reaction on Gold (holding negative correlation for those #2). Subsequently adding to the configuration that Bond Yields are aswell on promising uptrend, Gold Traders may witness aggressive takedown towards #1,678.80 - #1,688.80 Lower Low extension (even this Trading week), which will trigger my #1,722.80 pending (Selling) orfders. But that largely depends upon the Fundamentals and how DX and Yields will continue the candles starting from today’s session. There are #2 possibilities ahead: #1) Gold closing below #1,732.80, invalidating #1,721.80 final Support ahead of #1,700.80 psychological barrier, where I will be ready to Sell on spot with multiple piercing Selling orders (#1,695.80 Target), and #2) Rejection on both DX and Bond Yields, where Gold may recover #5 - #10 points upwards where I will be ready to re-Sell Gold towards #1,721.80 first, and #1,700.80 in extension.
My position: I am currently without a position (comfortably monitoring the Price-action from sidelines), waiting for #1,723.80 final Support to break, where I will Sell on spot towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier. Regardless, I am not interested in Buying Gold on both Short and Medium-term. #1,741.80 should be final recovery and turning point.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
