Gold's general commentary: Gold is following so far exactly the September #24 - #28 pattern discussed last Week, and is marching towards the #1,752.80, final Lower Low's extension, on expected hawkish stance from the Fed. Since #1,788.80 broke, it would be best to wait for the #1,772.80 Support (break of can extend the decline towards #1,770.80 #2-Week Low). The MACD has already made it’s Bearish Cross on Hourly 4 chart so there are Higher chances to finally break the final Support, and engage the Selling sequence towards #1,752.80, my Target. If a pull-back however occurs, I won’t be interested in Buying (regarding Short-term), unless #1,812.80 breaks.
Technical analysis: The current aggressive takedown near the #1,752.80 (final Lower Low extension) should come as no Technical surprise as Price-action was next to the Weekly chart's Top (prior to historical Top rejections April #22, May #4, July #5). If Gold closes today's Daily candle in red (and most likely it will as Price-action is comfortably Trading below #1,788.80 Support), I will have a clear signal for Selling sustainability with significant potential to retest the #1,752.80 Lower Low's Bottom. What is Highly important to note is that I can spot Bearish candlestick pattern on Daily chart (resemblance which means that the same scenario of decline can again occur) which can be indication for Bearish reversal - but also I need to follow the DX rule - with DX Trading within healthy (Fed fueled) Ascending Channel and NFP this week, my formula points that Bullish reversal is not possible (Short-term) as Gold is experiencing Bullish spikes since DX and Usd-Jpy pair were losing value with every Hourly candle and testing Lower levels, while every Bull spike on Gold should be instantly Sold. Bond Yields may be in jitters due to the general Inflation on ATH and Fed’s rate hike. Personally, DX is more important currently than trinity of (Bond Yields, Usd-Jpy, Stock markets). All current events are pointing to Short-term recovery continuation, which later on can be used as decent Selling opportunity. It is important to note that historically, Gold always gives #3 Lower Low’s and then prints solid recovery on the aftermath. On March #30, when Bond Yields made their first Yearly rise, Gold's Low was near #1,678.80, which confirms Gold’s strong correlation with Yields, meaning if there were no Trade tensions and indecision of Fed regarding the rate around the corner, it's current fair value would be near #1,678.80 March’s Double Bottom. Bond Yields should recover this week’s losses and with Gold’s Daily chart critically Bearish, the Selling potential is significant.
Fundamental analysis: Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel has taken a pause and moving off the course to form a #1 - #2 session Bullish bias as the absence of economic news throughout today’s session is causing sideways action. Apart from that, last week’s #1,788.80 Higher Low’s can be distinguished as an strong Resistance and turning point if Gold tests it and doesen’t break it. Gold’s underlying trend remain Bearish (Short-term) and strict (bigger timeframes) Descending Channel is demonstrating that my outlook is still unchanged. My initial Targets remain #1,752.80 and #1,727.80 in extension. As discussed, the Daily chart’s RSI is on Neutral levels but in fact lately, just away in points form the March’s bottom of #30.00. Typically when the RSI hits these levels it finds Sellers and that has been so consistent since the August #2018 market bottom. The downside potential is #1,678.80 - #1,700.80, while on Medium and Long-term, #1,585.80 is surely on the cards. Like I mentioned, the trend is still Bearish, and will only reverse if the current Weekly candle ends in losses (Breaking the #1,832.80 Higher High’s Resistance), which presently has slim chances. Gold has rallied in #2020, rising to the highest level in #6 Years, as Investors contemplate slowing economic growth, prospects for easier monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe and festering Trade frictions. With that being said, I will not consider Buying anymore (regarding Medium-term) as Gold always tends to struggle Long-term after pricing the ATH, and will only turn to Selling Gold on Short-term. The downswing on Gold has been given added momentum as Interest rates are going so Low, particularly now. Ahead on Short-term regarding Gold, I expect Neutral consolidation and personally, Hourly 4 chart’s #1,752.80 test.
My position: As I am in comfortable position currently (on a #4 Profits run), I won't Sell without #1,772.80 break confirmation. I will be ready with my set of Selling orders to pursue #1,752.80 Lower Low's extension, only if #1,772.80 breaks.
Technical analysis: The current aggressive takedown near the #1,752.80 (final Lower Low extension) should come as no Technical surprise as Price-action was next to the Weekly chart's Top (prior to historical Top rejections April #22, May #4, July #5). If Gold closes today's Daily candle in red (and most likely it will as Price-action is comfortably Trading below #1,788.80 Support), I will have a clear signal for Selling sustainability with significant potential to retest the #1,752.80 Lower Low's Bottom. What is Highly important to note is that I can spot Bearish candlestick pattern on Daily chart (resemblance which means that the same scenario of decline can again occur) which can be indication for Bearish reversal - but also I need to follow the DX rule - with DX Trading within healthy (Fed fueled) Ascending Channel and NFP this week, my formula points that Bullish reversal is not possible (Short-term) as Gold is experiencing Bullish spikes since DX and Usd-Jpy pair were losing value with every Hourly candle and testing Lower levels, while every Bull spike on Gold should be instantly Sold. Bond Yields may be in jitters due to the general Inflation on ATH and Fed’s rate hike. Personally, DX is more important currently than trinity of (Bond Yields, Usd-Jpy, Stock markets). All current events are pointing to Short-term recovery continuation, which later on can be used as decent Selling opportunity. It is important to note that historically, Gold always gives #3 Lower Low’s and then prints solid recovery on the aftermath. On March #30, when Bond Yields made their first Yearly rise, Gold's Low was near #1,678.80, which confirms Gold’s strong correlation with Yields, meaning if there were no Trade tensions and indecision of Fed regarding the rate around the corner, it's current fair value would be near #1,678.80 March’s Double Bottom. Bond Yields should recover this week’s losses and with Gold’s Daily chart critically Bearish, the Selling potential is significant.
Fundamental analysis: Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel has taken a pause and moving off the course to form a #1 - #2 session Bullish bias as the absence of economic news throughout today’s session is causing sideways action. Apart from that, last week’s #1,788.80 Higher Low’s can be distinguished as an strong Resistance and turning point if Gold tests it and doesen’t break it. Gold’s underlying trend remain Bearish (Short-term) and strict (bigger timeframes) Descending Channel is demonstrating that my outlook is still unchanged. My initial Targets remain #1,752.80 and #1,727.80 in extension. As discussed, the Daily chart’s RSI is on Neutral levels but in fact lately, just away in points form the March’s bottom of #30.00. Typically when the RSI hits these levels it finds Sellers and that has been so consistent since the August #2018 market bottom. The downside potential is #1,678.80 - #1,700.80, while on Medium and Long-term, #1,585.80 is surely on the cards. Like I mentioned, the trend is still Bearish, and will only reverse if the current Weekly candle ends in losses (Breaking the #1,832.80 Higher High’s Resistance), which presently has slim chances. Gold has rallied in #2020, rising to the highest level in #6 Years, as Investors contemplate slowing economic growth, prospects for easier monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe and festering Trade frictions. With that being said, I will not consider Buying anymore (regarding Medium-term) as Gold always tends to struggle Long-term after pricing the ATH, and will only turn to Selling Gold on Short-term. The downswing on Gold has been given added momentum as Interest rates are going so Low, particularly now. Ahead on Short-term regarding Gold, I expect Neutral consolidation and personally, Hourly 4 chart’s #1,752.80 test.
My position: As I am in comfortable position currently (on a #4 Profits run), I won't Sell without #1,772.80 break confirmation. I will be ready with my set of Selling orders to pursue #1,752.80 Lower Low's extension, only if #1,772.80 breaks.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
