Gold on critical crossroads / Bearish Short-term

Gold's general outlook: Gold has made first test of the #1,800.80 psychological barrier and so far it is holding as an Resistance (Top of the Resistance zone), as DX and Bond Yields reached Overbought territory, it was Natural to expect Short-term recovery on Gold. Daily chart has marginally broken to the downside (still firm Bearish outlook, even with Oversold Williams%) but as I stated on the previous commentary, I want to see #1,769.80 test to be convinced of a clear downside momentum/dip towards #1,747.80 Lower Low extension. Technically I already assumed that the Price-action will recover strongest proportion decline, last seen on February - March #2020. fractal since DX and Yields made a rebound, Gold testing Lower levels is still more likely possible at moment. This shows that big Institutional capital speculate on the same strategy that I apply, taking Profits on High’s of the Channel Up causing Bearish spikes, which they later Buy. The #1,800.80 rejection can be Technically used as an entry for the #1,769.80 Support test (Short-term), but I doubt we will see Bearish action throughout today’s session. Besides that, the February #17 Low has been touched with the Hourly 4 chart Channel Down ready to bring Gold one step to my Target (#1,747.80).


Technical analysis: Daily chart Support that prevents Gold from turning Bearish (holding on Neutral levels on my indicators) is already mentioned and provided steady Support on multiple occasions, but I don’t think that will be the case within #5 sessions. DX broke above it’s Hourly 4 Resistance but for now that is not engaged to my main plan and point of interest since Gold slightly lost correlation with DX (on Short-term) and now correlates with Yields mostly. Hourly 4 chart being of utmost importance as it will determine Investor sentiment (rejection Lower of break out Higher), as I am certain that Bearish extension will continue. If Yields hold their current Support levels, I expect my Target #1,747.80 to be realized within #5 Sessions (Probability of #87%). If Gold breaks #1,798.80 and invalidates psychological barrier later on (and Yields continue the parabolic downtrend), Gold can spike up towards #1,814.80, and there it will be important where market will close. However, if #1.769.80 breaks, it will trigger my Selling order calling for #1,747.80 test. I prefer to sit out today’s E.U. session and observe the Price-action from sidelines.


Fundamental analysis: Personally, Daily chart’s #MA50 is widely broken and with this current decline I have concluded my Selling sequence since Wednesday’s session and Friday’s #1,800.80 psychological barrier peak. Early uptrend however didn’t caught me bare-handed but it was too late to contemplate Selling the market. This was one of the biggest Weekly losses for Xau-Usd in recent times and needless to mention, the Hourly 4 chart is still not too Oversold. There are #2 possibilities: #1) Price-action testing the #1,800.80 psychological barrier again where I will be contemplating Selling order #2) Further dip as Wall Street opening Bell approaches. It is indeed critical crossroads on Gold which I will monitor patiently. On the other hand though, on the Daily timeframe, Gold is just Neutral as the Price-action is about to touch the Lower Support. I have stated all Monthly cycle how Fundamentally Overbought Gold was and how a mix of data and the Inflation on ATH (institutions withdrawing Profits from Gold's #3-Month Bullish parabolic run) was extremely Bearish on the Short-term. This can get even worse for Buyers if Bond Yields start recovering as the fair Price-action of Gold should be near #1,747.80 and below, as current fractal aims for #1,678.80 Lower Low extension.


My position: As I am not interested in Buying Gold on Short and Medium-term, current rise is a response to Bond Yields (# -#1,87%) on a parabolic downtrend. Once Yields recover and my Support of #1,769.80 breaks, it will trigger my Selling order towards Lower Low extension near #1,747.80. I will remain without a position for now until the configuration acts favourably to my Selling model.