#1,887.80 re-Sell zone / Bearish Medium-term
Gold's general commentary: Gold has broken the Hourly 4 chart Channel Up and altered the #4-Week gains on Gold. As Gold didn't recovered the #1,900.80 psychological barrier last week after decent decline, Selling continuation is on the cards, with today's #1,900.80 - #1,904.80 being the Lower High Resistance zone which, if broken can continue the recovery, otherwise Gold is timed for a downswing. Of course much is attributed to the ongoing #1.7 Trillion planned infrastructure spending whose late optimistic developments (deal hopes) are now pulling the Price-action back downwards (assisting downside aswell the debacle on Core CPI report). I have the next Support at #1,887.80 where the Price-action should meet the Lower High Lower zone (last time occurred on May #9) and continue the decline towards #1,871.80 again or less. I didn’t shifted my strategy for the moment and keep in mind that Gold changed it’s course and now have Bearish sentiment (underlying trend) on both Short and Medium-term as every pull back (either on Hourly 4 chart but mostly on Daily) should be Sold. Gold remains Bearish (Medium-term horizon) and #1,850.80 Target is intact as discussed.
Fundamental analysis: Distant anticipated Monthly catalysts both reported worse than expected numbers, which should have a rather mixed effect on Gold. Though the impact should be positive for DX (and Gold in turn negative), Bond Yields typically are on a Short-term decline. The key is what effect will current Fundamental environment have on the Bond Yields, which after #2 sessions on gains, are seen losing and (more importantly) throughout today’s session and pushing Gold upwards. My Bearish Fundamental expectation is going favorably aswell from a Technical perspective too, as Gold is in Daily fluctuation since very own beginning of E.U. session around the Hourly 4 chart Support (#1,887.80) and Resistance zone (#1,900.80 - #1,904.80). The longer it does though, the more negative it should be on the Short-term as the Resistance zone is limiting the uptrend and pushing down the Price-action. I am confident that Gold will break #1,871.80 Lower High extension within #2 sessions time.
Technical analysis (cyclical movements): I already noted that the Weekly Price-action is attempting to cross above it’s Resistance zone #1,900.80 + and almost did it. What caused an mini upswing (positive) on Gold is Natural consolidation since market can’t Trade only in one direction, DX taking strong hits and Bond Yields (after Powell’s encouraging speech) on parabolic downtrend. As soon as those Trade favorably to my model, Gold will test #1,871.80 or Lower. Interesting variance last seen on January #29 - March #5. Price-action engaged decent decline, engaged semi-recovery (which is the case at the moment) and delivered aggressive takedown which can be repeated at shortly as Gold is cycle asset. If #1,900.80 is not recovered, Price-action will surely continue to emphasize a Bearish presence from here, Support line is at #1,887.80. DX continues to lose it's momentum which will add Buying pressure on Gold. What’s also interesting about this level from a Technical perspective is that, not surprisingly, it goes precisely along Bond Yields and that’s the only parameter which keeps Gold on this levels. Along with those Bearish signs which occurred this morning, Daily movement is trying to overthrow a new Resistance at #1,900.80. In the event, further Buying is not on the cards, but if the Resistance is broken I’ll have to re-evaluate my strategy as Selling will be postponed, but not invalidated. Hourly 4 chart is giving me excellent Selling points and points out a underlying Bearish trend on Gold (Short-term). Note that this ascending level also pairs reasonably with the Weekly chart Resistance. Gold is a cautious market at the moment. With Buyers showing limited activity, I am certain in my outlook and as today's U.S. session approaches, I will start utilizing this Bearish momentum to it’s maximum if Bond Yields engage the promising recovery. It would also be too much of a risk to contemplate Buying this market when the Resistance have yet to be convincingly consumed. Last time I saw such cycle, Gold rose more than #185 points within #2-Month fractal. So patience is needed.
My position: As my yesterday's Stop-loss got hit and my position got invalidated (on #1,894.80 Resistance zone upper extension), I suffered #10 point Stop-loss hit and turning my May - June fractal result to #9 Profit row and #2 Stop-loss hits. Gold recovered #1,900.80 Intra-day regarding yesterday's session, but didn't managed to close the session above, which limited Buying activity. Yesterday's rise was nothing more than Fundamental answer to DX and Bond Yields on a downtrend, as I am not interested in Buying Gold unless #1,917.80 Higher High extension breaks. However, as long as Bond Yields are on a downtrend, Gold will be Neutral (thin Volumed session like yesterday's), but once Yields recover and #1,887.80 gets invalidated, I will be ready to purse #1,850.80 with my Selling order, engaging my outlook on #1,887.80 break.
Fundamental analysis: Distant anticipated Monthly catalysts both reported worse than expected numbers, which should have a rather mixed effect on Gold. Though the impact should be positive for DX (and Gold in turn negative), Bond Yields typically are on a Short-term decline. The key is what effect will current Fundamental environment have on the Bond Yields, which after #2 sessions on gains, are seen losing and (more importantly) throughout today’s session and pushing Gold upwards. My Bearish Fundamental expectation is going favorably aswell from a Technical perspective too, as Gold is in Daily fluctuation since very own beginning of E.U. session around the Hourly 4 chart Support (#1,887.80) and Resistance zone (#1,900.80 - #1,904.80). The longer it does though, the more negative it should be on the Short-term as the Resistance zone is limiting the uptrend and pushing down the Price-action. I am confident that Gold will break #1,871.80 Lower High extension within #2 sessions time.
Technical analysis (cyclical movements): I already noted that the Weekly Price-action is attempting to cross above it’s Resistance zone #1,900.80 + and almost did it. What caused an mini upswing (positive) on Gold is Natural consolidation since market can’t Trade only in one direction, DX taking strong hits and Bond Yields (after Powell’s encouraging speech) on parabolic downtrend. As soon as those Trade favorably to my model, Gold will test #1,871.80 or Lower. Interesting variance last seen on January #29 - March #5. Price-action engaged decent decline, engaged semi-recovery (which is the case at the moment) and delivered aggressive takedown which can be repeated at shortly as Gold is cycle asset. If #1,900.80 is not recovered, Price-action will surely continue to emphasize a Bearish presence from here, Support line is at #1,887.80. DX continues to lose it's momentum which will add Buying pressure on Gold. What’s also interesting about this level from a Technical perspective is that, not surprisingly, it goes precisely along Bond Yields and that’s the only parameter which keeps Gold on this levels. Along with those Bearish signs which occurred this morning, Daily movement is trying to overthrow a new Resistance at #1,900.80. In the event, further Buying is not on the cards, but if the Resistance is broken I’ll have to re-evaluate my strategy as Selling will be postponed, but not invalidated. Hourly 4 chart is giving me excellent Selling points and points out a underlying Bearish trend on Gold (Short-term). Note that this ascending level also pairs reasonably with the Weekly chart Resistance. Gold is a cautious market at the moment. With Buyers showing limited activity, I am certain in my outlook and as today's U.S. session approaches, I will start utilizing this Bearish momentum to it’s maximum if Bond Yields engage the promising recovery. It would also be too much of a risk to contemplate Buying this market when the Resistance have yet to be convincingly consumed. Last time I saw such cycle, Gold rose more than #185 points within #2-Month fractal. So patience is needed.
My position: As my yesterday's Stop-loss got hit and my position got invalidated (on #1,894.80 Resistance zone upper extension), I suffered #10 point Stop-loss hit and turning my May - June fractal result to #9 Profit row and #2 Stop-loss hits. Gold recovered #1,900.80 Intra-day regarding yesterday's session, but didn't managed to close the session above, which limited Buying activity. Yesterday's rise was nothing more than Fundamental answer to DX and Bond Yields on a downtrend, as I am not interested in Buying Gold unless #1,917.80 Higher High extension breaks. However, as long as Bond Yields are on a downtrend, Gold will be Neutral (thin Volumed session like yesterday's), but once Yields recover and #1,887.80 gets invalidated, I will be ready to purse #1,850.80 with my Selling order, engaging my outlook on #1,887.80 break.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
