#1,678.80 postponed, but not out of the question (Lower Low)

Gold's general commentary: Gold’s upswing is in continuation (Channel Down on Hourly 4 chart invalidated) on U.S. Core CPI debacle which added enormous Buying pressure on Gold and revealed the fact that Inflation won’t be transitory. I was confident that even though DX is hammered and suffering strong losses, Buying bias should be contained as High as the Hourly 1 chart Resistance, but on the contrary, Bond Yields engaged parabolic decline and crash of, added enormous Buying pressure, visible on Gold charts on mid-U.S. session. Price-action rebounded again, was about to test the #1,808.80 - #1,812.80 Resistance zone (Higher Low Upper extension). Once again Fundamental data revived Buyers on such Bearish Technical landscape, but my analysis filters such events and sooner or later I am looking at decent possibility of Gold testing #1,748.80 Lower Low extension and as long as the Daily chart is Bearish, I will not be interested in Buying Gold. Technically, if I have an upside attempt and possible rejection near the Resistance zone, then a rejection back towards the #1,792.80 and #1,785.80 is more probable, where if Gold closes one full Hourly 4 candle below the Support, I have a Bearish breakout towards / correction towards #1,748.80 Lower Low variance.


Technical analysis: Based on yesterday’s session disastrous CPI readings, Gold should be significantly Higher under the circumstances (but isn't due strong Bearish bias Gold is Trading under). Configuration shows that Buying bias is less possible as Gold won’t represent sole hedge asset against the Inflation (on ATH currently). The Hourly 4 chart RSI sequence is identical to the February #24 - #27 #2017, which after it hit the #MA50, resulted into the sharp decline towards #1,566.80 (was representing Lower Low extension then), as Gold historically repeats it’s Cycles as I expect steeper takedown from this point. At the same time Bond Yields are Trading on Channel Down (Triple Top rejection) after Resistance / Top rejection (# - 3.05% up from Friday’s session Lower High) and DX is on a semi-correction. This should pile on Buying pressure on Gold but (can be retroactively) without any major Macro reports this Trading week (until Fed minutes throughout next Trading week), I may have to wait until tomorrow’s session for more significant action. Gold got the necessary Fundamental correction (as discussed, every time Gold gets rejected on Lower High variance, Lower Low zone is tested) as I should be seeing a continuation of the downtrend. I am expecting #1,748.80 test next.


My position: As I am heavily on Selling side, I was ready for aggressive takedown on Gold with my #1,791.80 (entry point) Selling order, and my Stop-loss was on #1,801.80 variance. As soon as I spotted disastrous / surprising CPI numbers, I moved my Stop-loss a bit Lower which prevented unexpected scenarios. I am currently without a position, contemplating Selling the market and patiently waiting for Price-action to deliver decent Selling opportunity. Traders who intend to Buy Gold should firstly wait for #1,810.80 - #1,812.80 break, potentially eyeing #1,827.80, but it is dangerous to Buy Gold on such Selling bias. Sellers should wait for area to be engulfed and engage only if #1,794.80 first Support breaks.