goldenBear88

Gold within a Triangle / upside pressure seems weak

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: The DX did approach the #92.20 Resistance but Gold remained more or less stationary on Hourly 4 chart, highlighting the strong Bearish pressure it is under. Constant Hourly 4 chart Bullish spikes and Bullish move in general has no further room to go, so I don't expect this consolidation to continue for more than #2 sessions. My focus shifts to the Powell’s speech due to the ties on Bond Yields and DX, where Gold is attempting to find a balance between the two. Trading Gold is tricky for inexperienced and Traders, situations such as this one, even if one see all Bullish setups, this is not a good sign for those who want to Buy this market (most of Traders will) as the more prominent area for Buyers to arise is likely around Hourly 4 chart’s #1,795.80 which is crucial chart to rely on, having seen how well it held Price-action Lower in late June (current fractal). This is a cautious market at the moment. As Buying seems weak and limited in most cases, I am waiting for Selling confirmation. If #1,776.80 breaks, I may engage my Selling sequence. If #1,765.80 breaks, Gold will pursue #1,747.80 pressure point next. Base-case scenario is even extending the Price-action towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier.


Technical analysis: As expected, yesterday’s very positive U.S. Fundamental’s didn’t broke the #1,770.80 - #1,780.80 consolidation range within a session, and now the Daily chart’s Channel Down should push Gold Lower. Following the Powell’s speech outcome regarding Inflation in general and Yields in particular, it can have Selling impact on Gold and can kickstart the crucial test to break the #1,766.80 Support. If successful then #1,766.80 - #1,756.80 is the next zone to watch. Keep in mind that current configuration on Gold largely depends on the Fed’s decision regarding Yields, which should skyrocket on Short-term, hence Bearish for Gold. Keep an eye on the today’s U.S. session, as it can deliver decent Selling pressure. My Selling outlook remains unchanged.


My position: I am without a position for #2 sessions now, as current market sentiment is not worth entering. I will engage my Selling order if #1,776.80 breaks, adding strict Risk management, pursuing #1,740.80 with my Selling order. However, if #1,766.80 Support holds the Price-action, I may close my order there. On the other hand, I won't engage if I don't have confirmation from Bond Yields, currently Trading on Lower High's.




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