TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Price action in precious metals reflects yet another position squeeze. This pattern of speculative accumulations being followed by position squeezes has been a hallmark of gold's range-bound trading regime over the past twelve months. The resilience in strength — partly explained by strong physical demand — amid a pervasively negative sentiment across the complex, created the set-up for yet another whipsaw for CTA trend followers. After all, markets had already priced in nearly 3.5 Fed hikes by December, along with the more aggressive pace of tapering and have most recently begun to price higher odds of an earlier start to the Fed's balance sheet runoff. However, with quantitative tightening still months away, most of the rates shock in precious metals thus far appears priced. In this context, a renewed buying program in gold could have an outsized impact on prices as a dry-powder analysis highlights that short positioning, although not broad, remains bloated.

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