Gold still on Bullish Technicals / strong Support nearby
Gold's general commentary: Gold continues to consolidate on Hourly 4 chart after Intra-day’s recovery throughout Friday’s session, while being unable to extend the Bullish candle sequence above #2,000.80 variance. This time however the Hourly 4 chart’s configuration is coming strong from above to offer potential Resistance zone at #2,000.80 - #2,005.80. If the market closes above it, then more than likely the Daily chart’s Top’s formation will potentially be tested within next Trading week (currently Trading at #2,020.80 - #2,027.80 on possible #5-session Buying spree). A break above it paves the way for #2,052.80 benchmark test in extension, while a Daily chart’s market closing below the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,975.80 - #1,980.80 (former multi-Month Resistance zone) opens the way for #1,952.80 - #1,960.80 extension. It is important (since Bond Yields are Trading on Intra-day’s recovery attempt on Daily chart) to keep an eye on main correlation which came too close to its Daily chart’s possible rejection point, currently on parabolic uptrend (in form of Bull Engulfing candle). Subsequently, I give more probabilities to the downside as long as Resistance zone is preserved on Gold.
Technical analysis:The Price-action remains isolated within healthy Ascending Channel on Daily chart, way above of the December #28 - January #16 High Volatility zone and is consolidating as mentioned on my commentaries. I treat this as an already formed Three Drives pattern so the formation should be fairly symmetrical. March #20 local High’s was at #2,010.80 so I can't exclude a similar symmetrical High’s test this time around, and if Price-action invalidates #2,000.80 configuration, then doors are open to #2,027.80 and #2,052.80 psychological barrier test (fractal has slim chances to develop unless Price-action closes the market above #2,000.80 benchmark and continue to comfortably Trading above it). Daily chart is currently on positive gradient as is close to complete the Ascending Channel’s Ultimate Top zone after previous March #20, March #23 and March #24 Triple Top formation) for the first time since April #18, #2022 extension. If the current Three Drives pattern is the symmetrical pattern of the November - January IH&S, then the Selling sequence that took place on February #16, #2021 and delivered the #1,678.80 market bottom of March #8, could be the directly symmetrical sequence and Medium (to Long-term) Selling projection, which offers great value for Gold’s Sellers since according to my estimations, I do expect multi-Month Selling sequence once Fundamental banking crisis after-effect eases. It is Technically too dangerous to Buy Gold at the moment (without confirmation) with #2 strong Resistances ahead (I will Buy only if #1,960.80 Support rejects the Price-action), and in the same manner, it is too early to Sell Gold, since Support zone is well preserved and showcasing strong durability.
Fundamental analysis: Gold keeps close track of the Bond Yields, strongest correlation I have at the moment as in the absence of macro-economic news, correlating asset delivers smooth diagonal Trading which showcases that Gold continues to be detached from DX and follows Bond Yields and rallies don’t (as for the current configuration at least) translate into equal rallies on Gold as long as Bond Yields aren’t falling. Gold is Trading too close to the Daily chart’s Support area in recent Hours and this is not the time to assume aggressive position on the market that is obviously waiting for catalysts to move. Right now Trading the breakout of one of the benchmarks towards the Daily chart’s Resistance or Support zone, having a stop on the Hourly 4 chart’s #10 - #12 points is the most optimal Trade to take, if and when of course current variance allows. Price-action is again testing the intermediate Support on strong Bullish Medium-term chart (#D1). With Hourly 4 chart confirming another Higher High’s local Top’s, Buyer’s efforts are still not strong enough to test-and-break final Long Target for the fractal. After this level is hit and all my Buying orders are closed, I will review once again Gold’s configuration with Medium-term perspective (what I usually do, compiling multiple timeframes), where my aim is to detect a Selling entry this time on a Medium-term basis where correction will be very strong according to (#1W) my Weekly chart’s regression analysis as an cyclical downside (August #3, #2020, March #7, #2022, April #18, #2022), where I do expect equally strong Selling sequence in form of a correction ahead once Fundamental dust settles.
My position: Even though Buying pressure is easing (not visible on charts), Daily chart's Technicals are still Bullish and #1,955.80 - #1,960.80 is excellent re-Buy zone, if you decide to Trade this. If Support zone breaks, expect #1,930.80 Support to be filled on extended correction where Short-term Buying bias will be negated. Otherwise, #2,000.80 psychological benchmark remains viable Medium-term Target.
Technical analysis:The Price-action remains isolated within healthy Ascending Channel on Daily chart, way above of the December #28 - January #16 High Volatility zone and is consolidating as mentioned on my commentaries. I treat this as an already formed Three Drives pattern so the formation should be fairly symmetrical. March #20 local High’s was at #2,010.80 so I can't exclude a similar symmetrical High’s test this time around, and if Price-action invalidates #2,000.80 configuration, then doors are open to #2,027.80 and #2,052.80 psychological barrier test (fractal has slim chances to develop unless Price-action closes the market above #2,000.80 benchmark and continue to comfortably Trading above it). Daily chart is currently on positive gradient as is close to complete the Ascending Channel’s Ultimate Top zone after previous March #20, March #23 and March #24 Triple Top formation) for the first time since April #18, #2022 extension. If the current Three Drives pattern is the symmetrical pattern of the November - January IH&S, then the Selling sequence that took place on February #16, #2021 and delivered the #1,678.80 market bottom of March #8, could be the directly symmetrical sequence and Medium (to Long-term) Selling projection, which offers great value for Gold’s Sellers since according to my estimations, I do expect multi-Month Selling sequence once Fundamental banking crisis after-effect eases. It is Technically too dangerous to Buy Gold at the moment (without confirmation) with #2 strong Resistances ahead (I will Buy only if #1,960.80 Support rejects the Price-action), and in the same manner, it is too early to Sell Gold, since Support zone is well preserved and showcasing strong durability.
Fundamental analysis: Gold keeps close track of the Bond Yields, strongest correlation I have at the moment as in the absence of macro-economic news, correlating asset delivers smooth diagonal Trading which showcases that Gold continues to be detached from DX and follows Bond Yields and rallies don’t (as for the current configuration at least) translate into equal rallies on Gold as long as Bond Yields aren’t falling. Gold is Trading too close to the Daily chart’s Support area in recent Hours and this is not the time to assume aggressive position on the market that is obviously waiting for catalysts to move. Right now Trading the breakout of one of the benchmarks towards the Daily chart’s Resistance or Support zone, having a stop on the Hourly 4 chart’s #10 - #12 points is the most optimal Trade to take, if and when of course current variance allows. Price-action is again testing the intermediate Support on strong Bullish Medium-term chart (#D1). With Hourly 4 chart confirming another Higher High’s local Top’s, Buyer’s efforts are still not strong enough to test-and-break final Long Target for the fractal. After this level is hit and all my Buying orders are closed, I will review once again Gold’s configuration with Medium-term perspective (what I usually do, compiling multiple timeframes), where my aim is to detect a Selling entry this time on a Medium-term basis where correction will be very strong according to (#1W) my Weekly chart’s regression analysis as an cyclical downside (August #3, #2020, March #7, #2022, April #18, #2022), where I do expect equally strong Selling sequence in form of a correction ahead once Fundamental dust settles.
My position: Even though Buying pressure is easing (not visible on charts), Daily chart's Technicals are still Bullish and #1,955.80 - #1,960.80 is excellent re-Buy zone, if you decide to Trade this. If Support zone breaks, expect #1,930.80 Support to be filled on extended correction where Short-term Buying bias will be negated. Otherwise, #2,000.80 psychological benchmark remains viable Medium-term Target.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
