#1,852.80 Resistance zone to contain the recovery attempt
Gold's general commentary: #1,827.80 first Target was concluded already, along with the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,800.80 extension ahead, Gold is Trading within it’s much anticipated Higher Low’s Lower zone decimal. Hourly 4 chart merely rejected the Price-action and since November #24, every marginal break of the #1,827.80 Support was followed with #55 point further decline (calls for #1,778.80 Lower Low’s sequence) which turned into a rebound on the aftermath. I won’t hurry with my next move (Highly satisfied with my current results) - however if Gold don’t deliver additional Intra-day Buying pressure ahead of U.S. session opening Bell, I will engage new Selling order with #1,800.80 as an handpicked Target, without waiting for a confirmation of another #1,827.80 Support break (only line of the defense for Buyers). However, if #1,827.80 holds throughout today’s session and market closes above it, expect a bounce back to #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 Resistance zone as Friday's session market closing was crucial regarding current week’s trend continuation (closing was accomplished above #1,827.80 Support which negated Intra-day Bearish bias).
Fundamental analysis: The anticipated U.S. data should have a positive impact on Bond Yields and negative wise on Gold but not if the DX starts losing again (as Gold is much more positively correlated lately to DX and partly with Bond Yields, only on #4 out of #21 sessions). It is vital to understand that with the risks involved on a Weekly scale, only if February #23 former High’s of #1,817.80 is crossed, Medium-term Sellers have a comfortable entry. Regardless, Gold will test #1,800.80 psychological benchmark. Daily chart demonstrates that this is a Profit taking favored zone since March #2014 (ADX # Low inclination) as Bearish momentum is expected to be utilized to it’s maximum. I can note with certainty that Medium-term Bearish trend (multi-Month Selling cycle) is on a very own start.
Technical analysis: Hourly 4 chart should turn into Descending Channel and progressively test Lower Low’s Upper zone levels, as current session has #90.17% chances to be the trend setter and with a major move on the aftermath, pointing me to be extra careful as U.S. opening Bell approaches. With DX on parabolic uptrend and Bond Yields on Short-term spiral downtrend sequence, mix is adding Intra-day Volatility on Gold which you are witnessing at the moment. According to the cycle, last time Gold formed wide Death Cross (April #22 fractal), Price-action was under total Selling domination and engaged almost #270 point slide, so all #3-Month consecutive gains on Gold (non-stop rise since November #4) should be erased. Since Gold was rejected instantly within #1,817.80 - #1,827.80 Support zone on Hourly 4 chart, I will treat mentioned zone as an Bottom, with the next Technical stop on the #1,792.80 - #1,800.80 zone. At this point I would like to share a key landmark on the monthly scale - Gold hasn’t still harmonized with DX. Bullish reversal is only sustainable if #1,852.80 - #1,862.80 is invalidated (full candle closing), however by my calculations, chances are slim regarding that configuration to develop as I am not interested in further Buying. Current Selling developments confirmed Technical Bearish gradient towards #1,800.80 motion, Price-action isolated within Descending Channel on Daily chart, however the session's range was #1,818.80 - #1,842.80, which is still the estimated Neutral / Bearish Daily chart’s range of the previous sessions. Healthy Bearish Technicals are indication that Price-action will approach #1,800.80 psychological benchmark within #3-session horizon (including current one). Hourly 4 chart is subsequently turning Bearish, achieving a relative balance between its Moving Average periods. Expect #1,800.80 benchmark test-and-break, followed with #1,778.80 Lower Low’s extension in succession.
My position: Even though I expect values below #1.800.80 benchmark to be tested, it is still early for me to engage my Selling order. I will monitor the Price-action comfortably from sidelines and implement #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 as my re-Sell zone / area. Any recovery attempt should be strongly limited.
Fundamental analysis: The anticipated U.S. data should have a positive impact on Bond Yields and negative wise on Gold but not if the DX starts losing again (as Gold is much more positively correlated lately to DX and partly with Bond Yields, only on #4 out of #21 sessions). It is vital to understand that with the risks involved on a Weekly scale, only if February #23 former High’s of #1,817.80 is crossed, Medium-term Sellers have a comfortable entry. Regardless, Gold will test #1,800.80 psychological benchmark. Daily chart demonstrates that this is a Profit taking favored zone since March #2014 (ADX # Low inclination) as Bearish momentum is expected to be utilized to it’s maximum. I can note with certainty that Medium-term Bearish trend (multi-Month Selling cycle) is on a very own start.
Technical analysis: Hourly 4 chart should turn into Descending Channel and progressively test Lower Low’s Upper zone levels, as current session has #90.17% chances to be the trend setter and with a major move on the aftermath, pointing me to be extra careful as U.S. opening Bell approaches. With DX on parabolic uptrend and Bond Yields on Short-term spiral downtrend sequence, mix is adding Intra-day Volatility on Gold which you are witnessing at the moment. According to the cycle, last time Gold formed wide Death Cross (April #22 fractal), Price-action was under total Selling domination and engaged almost #270 point slide, so all #3-Month consecutive gains on Gold (non-stop rise since November #4) should be erased. Since Gold was rejected instantly within #1,817.80 - #1,827.80 Support zone on Hourly 4 chart, I will treat mentioned zone as an Bottom, with the next Technical stop on the #1,792.80 - #1,800.80 zone. At this point I would like to share a key landmark on the monthly scale - Gold hasn’t still harmonized with DX. Bullish reversal is only sustainable if #1,852.80 - #1,862.80 is invalidated (full candle closing), however by my calculations, chances are slim regarding that configuration to develop as I am not interested in further Buying. Current Selling developments confirmed Technical Bearish gradient towards #1,800.80 motion, Price-action isolated within Descending Channel on Daily chart, however the session's range was #1,818.80 - #1,842.80, which is still the estimated Neutral / Bearish Daily chart’s range of the previous sessions. Healthy Bearish Technicals are indication that Price-action will approach #1,800.80 psychological benchmark within #3-session horizon (including current one). Hourly 4 chart is subsequently turning Bearish, achieving a relative balance between its Moving Average periods. Expect #1,800.80 benchmark test-and-break, followed with #1,778.80 Lower Low’s extension in succession.
My position: Even though I expect values below #1.800.80 benchmark to be tested, it is still early for me to engage my Selling order. I will monitor the Price-action comfortably from sidelines and implement #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 as my re-Sell zone / area. Any recovery attempt should be strongly limited.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
