Gold again on crossroads / #4 consecutive Profits row

Gold's general commentary: Price-action came too close to the #1,817.80 - #1,8327.80 Support zone and the fact that is currently rebounding may not only be Technically attributed to mentioned fractal (representing the February #11 Support) but also to the fact that it just hit the Higher High trendline of the Daily chart’s Channel Up. As long as mentioned zone Supports, I expect Gold to break back above the Hourly 4 Rectangle and pressure for #1,851.80 Higher High. If Gold closes the session above the Support on today’s market closing, expect Buying continuation. If on the other hand #1,827.80 breaks and Gold eventually closes the session below, I expect the High Volatility zone of mid-April - June to be tested (#1,718.80 - #1,678.80).


Fundamental analysis: #1,817.80 first Target concluded already, along with the Hourly 4 Support of #1,827.80 break, Gold was Trading on it’s much anticipated Higher High Lower zone. The Hourly 4 merely rejected the Price-action and since November #24, every marginal break of the #1,827.80 Support was followed with #55 point further decline (calls for #1,778.80) which turned into a rebound on the aftermath. However, if #1,817.80 holds throughout today’s session, expect a possible bounce back towards #1,851.80 Resistance and if broken, #1,862.80 extension, as today’s session market closing is crucial regarding week’s trend continuation. The lower than expected U.S. data should have a negative impact on Bond Yields and positive on Gold but not if the Usd-Jpy markets start falling again (as Gold is much more positively correlated lately to Bond Yields and partly with Usd-Jpy pair). It is vital to understand that with the risks involved on a Weekly scale, only if February #23 High of #1,817.80 is crossed, Selling the market will add to confidence, and re-Buy zone will be invalidated. Daily chart demonstrates that this is a Profit taking favored zone since March #2014 (ADX # low inclination) as I Utilized this Bearish momentum to it’s maximum. I can note with certainty that Medium-term Bearish trend is on a very own beginning. Hourly 4 chart should turn into Channel Down and progressively test Lower High levels, but for now I will remain on sidelines, booking extraordinary Profit.


Technical analysis: Current Trading week has #90.17% chances to be the trend setter and with a major move on the aftermath, pointing me to be extra careful as today's U.S. opening Bell approaches. Strong Bid/Ask Volume usually reveals that strong movement session is ahead, and if Gold breaks the Support, could easily engage Lower High sequence and even deeper test below #1,800.80 psychological barrier. Upper extension remains #1,851.80, as I doubt that Gold will pierce #1,950.80 psychological barrier on Q2. Especially since Daily chart is about to turn Bearish again. Since Gold was rejected instantly below the Resistance on Hourly 4 chart, I will treat this as an Technical Top, with the next Technical stop on the #1,805.80 zone. At this point I would like to share a key landmark on the monthly scale - Gold hasn’t still harmonized with DX. Bullish reversal is only sustainable if #1,851.80 is broken, but by my calculations, chances are slim regarding that outlook as I am not interested in further Buying. I am expecting #1,678.80 within #23 sessions. Bond Yields auction on main stage regarding today’s session.


My position: I am comfortably on sidelines, more than satisfied with #4 consecutive Profits row. I will make my move only if #1,817.80 breaks, calling for #1,798.80 Support (former Resistance) test, with my Selling orders ready to pursue Lower Targets. Everything in between is Neutral area (consolidation Rectangle classic consolidation).