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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 30 – May 04

Long
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TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold suffered with cuts of over $13 in past week in yet another rangebound trade where supports and resistances where respected. Gold was in a sell mode from the time it started the trade as the open was its high for the week and it trended lower towards the support area at $1317 from where it trimmed back some of the losses to close fairly higher. But again the story remains the same since the walls of the range was not disturbed and once again the 20 day moving average was held upon which suggests the gold is in a clear uptrend as even if it goes down it finds supports to latch on to and moves back higher.

On the chart –

Gold’s taking support at $1317 and bouncing back suggests there is buying at lower levels which will not allow the price to erode much while keeping the uptrend buoyant. This time both the support and the 20 day moving average was respected which definitely shows strength of bulls. Fundamentally gold is expected to trade higher given the situations around the globe. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold once again latched on to the support and turned back higher. If the support is held and the break even point of $1331 is crossed it can rise back towards $1345. If this is taken out it can rally towards $1358. And if this resistance zone is conquered it can go higher till $1374.

2. Short trades continues to remain dull and nullified until the supports are held. If $1317 is taken down it can fall further towards $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls must take heart from the price action which showed supports being held strongly with buying emerging at lower levels. Bulls were out of the picture nearly whole of the week but came to spotlight once the price fell towards the support and they managed to take it higher from there on closing basis. Such respecting of levels and supports must be seen as a casing point for the bullish trend to remain intact in a sideways and a rangebound market with wide anticipations of a breakout on the upside of the band.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On the larger terms, Gold remains rangebound with price action cradled between $1300-$1370 range. Need a breakout on either side to get a clear signal of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1358 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.
Comment:
Trade Active
Comment:
Short target met at $1308

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