Gold on Overbought Hourly 4 chart's Technicals
Gold's general commentary: Gold is still on a very tight balance, contained above the Higher High’s trendline on the Daily chart, and the Higher High’s trendline of the Ascending Channel. With Hourly 4 chart regaining full Bullish status once again (result of current Bullish spike you witnessed throughout Friday’s session), it is more than obvious why Gold has been Trading on multi-week consecutive gains (Weekly candle (#1W) is on (# +3.73%) while Monthly candle is widely green aswell (# +5.75%) and still have enough sessions to finish the fractal on decent gains). Since the #1,882.80 sequence, representing multi-Month Higher High’s peak was invalidated, it was Natural to expect #1,900.80 psychological benchmark to be tested in succession. I am strictly following my Long-term formula with strict Risk management (I still haven’t got luxury to set wider Stop-losses since these are not normal market conditions, at least for smaller margins) which indicates that Gold may rebound considerably near current Higher High’s peak variance but still about to test #1,952.80 psychological barrier in extension and Resistance cluster. Sequence has began since aggressive uptrend started from #1,832.80 Quadruple Top break in order to achieve the Higher High’s Upper zone sequence (priced in at the moment).
Fundamental analysis: DX and Bond Yields were both taking strong hits, even though Fed’s hawkish stance and Powell’s encouraging commentary, Gold is attempting to find the equilibrium between the two. Furthest extension is #1,918.80 - #1,921.80 Resistance cluster nearby for now, where multiple pending Medium-term Selling orders from Investors might be placed which may alter the Buying sequence and deliver Intra-day correction which I do expect throughout today’s session (sequence is invalidated if DX continues with the decline, unable to price in the viable Support). Gold shows no apparent signs (besides Intra-day Selling opportunities which Gold may deliver) of stopping it’s Bullish direction, fueled by Golden Cross on Gold and Death Cross, visible on DX chart. If you have followed my remarks and read them with understanding, you had chance to understand that I am heavily on the Bullish side and my view has not changed since the last week, but I do believe on wider timeframe, I found strong correlation of Gold with DX, which indicates stronger margin decline on Gold (remember, the stronger the rise is, stronger decline / correction will be on the aftermath). Keep in mind that one of the next week’s Powell’s testimony is Highly important, and will certainly have huge impact on current Price-action. Past #7 testimonies were Bearish for Gold within #2 sessions, so expect a Intra-day Volatility and Bearish outlook as an result with #77.18% chances. In addition, Hourly 4 chart’s RSI sequence is identical to the February #24 - #27 #2017, which after it hit the #MA50, resulted into the sharp decline to #1,566.80 (was #MA200 then), as it could be the case now as Gold historically repeats it’s cycles as I expect steeper fall from this point.
Technical analysis: At the same time Bond Yields are Trading on steep Descending Channel after Resistance / Top rejection (# - 2.03% up from Friday’s Higher High's) and DX was still losing with every Daily candle. Current mix should pile additional Buying pressure on Gold but (can be retroactively) without any major Macro reports today, I may have to wait until tomorrow’s candle / session for more significant action. Gold got the necessary Technical correction (as discussed, every time that Gold gets rejected on Lower High’s Upper zone variance, local Higher High’s zone will be re-tested) as I should be seeing a continuation of the uptrend if market closes above #1,900.80 psychological benchmark, while market closing below #1,900.80 pressure point can deliver Intra-day Selling opportunity towards #1,882.80 configuration. January Trading fractal (and #Q1 in general) is projected be fully Bullish (for Gold), as Gold become so slow to fall and quick to rise / soar due DX numbers. Regardless of the above, I do believe that I have drawn the best out of the current Price-action as Gold presented the dominant move (upwards).
My position: Since I expected Intra-day spike downwards which occurred throughout Asian session (#1,910.80 session Low), I will comfortably await for further positioning on sidelines as I spotted no Profitable patterns to Trade by. #1,952.80 remains Medium-term Target, however, Hourly 4 chart's Technicals are too Overbought to continue the Buying sequence.
Fundamental analysis: DX and Bond Yields were both taking strong hits, even though Fed’s hawkish stance and Powell’s encouraging commentary, Gold is attempting to find the equilibrium between the two. Furthest extension is #1,918.80 - #1,921.80 Resistance cluster nearby for now, where multiple pending Medium-term Selling orders from Investors might be placed which may alter the Buying sequence and deliver Intra-day correction which I do expect throughout today’s session (sequence is invalidated if DX continues with the decline, unable to price in the viable Support). Gold shows no apparent signs (besides Intra-day Selling opportunities which Gold may deliver) of stopping it’s Bullish direction, fueled by Golden Cross on Gold and Death Cross, visible on DX chart. If you have followed my remarks and read them with understanding, you had chance to understand that I am heavily on the Bullish side and my view has not changed since the last week, but I do believe on wider timeframe, I found strong correlation of Gold with DX, which indicates stronger margin decline on Gold (remember, the stronger the rise is, stronger decline / correction will be on the aftermath). Keep in mind that one of the next week’s Powell’s testimony is Highly important, and will certainly have huge impact on current Price-action. Past #7 testimonies were Bearish for Gold within #2 sessions, so expect a Intra-day Volatility and Bearish outlook as an result with #77.18% chances. In addition, Hourly 4 chart’s RSI sequence is identical to the February #24 - #27 #2017, which after it hit the #MA50, resulted into the sharp decline to #1,566.80 (was #MA200 then), as it could be the case now as Gold historically repeats it’s cycles as I expect steeper fall from this point.
Technical analysis: At the same time Bond Yields are Trading on steep Descending Channel after Resistance / Top rejection (# - 2.03% up from Friday’s Higher High's) and DX was still losing with every Daily candle. Current mix should pile additional Buying pressure on Gold but (can be retroactively) without any major Macro reports today, I may have to wait until tomorrow’s candle / session for more significant action. Gold got the necessary Technical correction (as discussed, every time that Gold gets rejected on Lower High’s Upper zone variance, local Higher High’s zone will be re-tested) as I should be seeing a continuation of the uptrend if market closes above #1,900.80 psychological benchmark, while market closing below #1,900.80 pressure point can deliver Intra-day Selling opportunity towards #1,882.80 configuration. January Trading fractal (and #Q1 in general) is projected be fully Bullish (for Gold), as Gold become so slow to fall and quick to rise / soar due DX numbers. Regardless of the above, I do believe that I have drawn the best out of the current Price-action as Gold presented the dominant move (upwards).
My position: Since I expected Intra-day spike downwards which occurred throughout Asian session (#1,910.80 session Low), I will comfortably await for further positioning on sidelines as I spotted no Profitable patterns to Trade by. #1,952.80 remains Medium-term Target, however, Hourly 4 chart's Technicals are too Overbought to continue the Buying sequence.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
