NFP session: Only direction is downside / Selling order engaged

Gold's general commentary: Very slow pace Rectangle Trading on the Hourly 4 chart, as current configuration is a typical sign that the market is consolidating, waiting for a catalyst to reveal an direction. Same with the DX (Intra-day). I assume that following the Monthly fractal, the market is waiting for the NFP to see how Wall Street will digest current developments and the Fed unchanged rate aftermath. Fundamentally, the risk-off sentiment that DX had these past few weeks should fade away after this result as Investors should remove capital from safe-haven assets such as Gold and can go back to Bond Yields with confidence (DX is already on traditional pre-crisis rally). Meaning that if Gold gains value, Bond Yields should lose along with the DX on Lower extension, which can continue Buying sequence on Gold (and vice-versa). Any pullback to the #1,722.80 Medium-term barrier and possible Price-action rejection is a Buying opportunity, below (break of), I expect Medium-term Investors to yield and push the Price-action towards #1,678.80 (possible Triple Bottom rejection point).


Since many Traders made inquiry regarding basics of Technical analysis, I compiled few words: Allow me to share an example of my personal approach on a Short and Medium/Long-term basis. On example above I am using the Hourly 4 chart (for me this is Short-term as I hardly ever Trade on a Hourly 1 chart basis). As you see on my charts, I always have identified an Ascending or Descending Channel. Channels can add Bullish or Bearish presence, (for example Bullish / Ascending Channel) that develops slowly with a standard pace upwards with Investors Buying on it’s Higher Low’s and Selling on it’s Higher High’s. Using a combination of the MACD instrument I can identify when the ideal time to enter is approaching. Below the chart you will mostly see the MACD trend. When you see the blue line crossing below the red, that is a Bearish crossover and signals the Top of the Channel (Higher High). Similarly when the blue is crossing above the red it is a Bullish crossover and signals the bottom of the Channel (Higher Low). As long as the formation lasts (that is why a Stop-loss is mostly needed to prevent unexpected scenarios), a Trader can Profit both ways on a Short timeframe. The same framework is used by Moving Averages (MA) mostly with #MA50 and #MA200 for example, I am sure you have read about the Golden Cross and Death Cross formations. In particular, Hours of fieldwork (monitoring the markets) has improved my long-Year Trading as you can do the same - familiarize yourself with key indicators and correlation and remember do not overload yourself with too much too early. The only reason I can use both Short and Long-term in combination is experience. And as you see I mention some indicators on my regular analysis but it is difficult for someone that is not a professional to understand how I use those together.


Technical analysis: It is Highly important to note that Gold always repeats it’s cycles and allow me share the configuration which was evident on the charts: Regarding November #11 - #12 variance, Gold dipped throughout E.U. session towards the #1,856.80 and as market closing approached, Bought back the dip and closed the market session near #1,884.80. On November #16 (cycle fractal), market sentiment delivered almost the same movement, decline towards #1,864.70, and tomorrow’s session market closing near Weekly High priced at #1,895.80 (again similar scenario). Throughout yesterday’s session, E.U. opening was flat but as Wall Street approached, Price-action dipped on an aggressive spike towards #1,750.80, and Bought back just within few Hours time towards #1,768.80 again (currently Price-action is Trading below mentioned Resistance) so - according to Daily cycles, every dip towards the Support was Bought back, and if Gold experiences aggressive push towards the Support and Price-action does not manage to rejects it, I don’t see why Gold won’t repeat this kind of sentiment and follow the statistic rules, initiating aggressive Medium-term takedown.


My position: As I am expecting strong number on NFP announcement, even stronger than the forecast (since ADP met the estimate), there are more facts in favour for stronger number on NFP reading. Therefore, DX should continue the recovery, and add enormous Selling pressure on Gold. I engaged my Selling order, with #1,754.80 entry point, calling for #1,722 extension. I will add one more Selling order if #1,748.80 breaks. I am expecting #20 point decline Intra-day, which was the case throughout June-July fractal. I am expecting #1,678.80 by end of the October, and #1,588.80 in succession by end of the Year.