For the past few years since peaking at 2075 in August 2020, gold has been trending in a corrective mode. Despite the war in Ukraine and lately, the hype surrounding the Federal Reserve cutting interest rate by the end of 2023, gold has not been reached new highs. From a Elliott wave perspective, I will hazard a guess that gold is currently in the Y wave of a double three Elliott wave, W(abc)-X(abc)-Y(abc).
In Elliott's publication of "The Wave Principle" (1938), double three pattern is part of a counter trend series of patterns that describes horizontal / sideway price movements. However, Elliott noted the pattern could incline in a upward/downward direction and horizontal movements, or vice versa. The W pattern, as depicted in the chart, has been unfolding into a flat pattern. X pattern, into a expanding flat pattern.
I have no crystal ball to prognosticate the future, but based on the rule of alternation, the Y pattern will be zig zig pattern and it will be inclined at an angle instead of a horizontal direction. And a confluence of factors indicate the target price for the Y wave will be in the range of 1370 to 1440. Firstly, the 0.618 retracement of the price action from Jan 2016 to Aug 2020 is 1440. Secondly, the termination of wave Y beyond the end of wave W at 1430 is 0.618 times the length of wave W. Lastly, there is strong support at 1370.
In Elliott's publication of "The Wave Principle" (1938), double three pattern is part of a counter trend series of patterns that describes horizontal / sideway price movements. However, Elliott noted the pattern could incline in a upward/downward direction and horizontal movements, or vice versa. The W pattern, as depicted in the chart, has been unfolding into a flat pattern. X pattern, into a expanding flat pattern.
I have no crystal ball to prognosticate the future, but based on the rule of alternation, the Y pattern will be zig zig pattern and it will be inclined at an angle instead of a horizontal direction. And a confluence of factors indicate the target price for the Y wave will be in the range of 1370 to 1440. Firstly, the 0.618 retracement of the price action from Jan 2016 to Aug 2020 is 1440. Secondly, the termination of wave Y beyond the end of wave W at 1430 is 0.618 times the length of wave W. Lastly, there is strong support at 1370.