brown_maverick

brown_maverick Updated 

A follow up on my previous post on DXY. I will label the leading expanding diagonal as wave 1 and the first wave extension of an impulsive wave. I have counted a 5 wave structure for wave 3, a small wave 4 and a contracting ending diagonal for wave 5. Wave 3 is 0.618 of wave 1 and wave 5 is 0.764 of wave 3. I believe retracement has begun and should end at the...

brown_maverick

A nifty aphorism by Mark Twain. The current bullish sentiment on Gold is analogous to that of Dow Jones Index in Feb 2020. We all know how it went next. I will label the current uptrend in gold as a Y (abc) wave of a larger double three (WXY) as depicted in the chart. The b wave in this Y structure is a running triangle with 5 three wave structures. Using 1 X of...

brown_maverick

Since my last update on DXY, it has reached the 104 region on April 4. It has moved upwards since and an impulsive five wave has been formed with a possible expanding diagonal as wave 5 as depicted on the 15 mins' chart. The nonfarm payroll of 330,000 jobs, more than the expected 200,000 jobs, have triggered a sharp rise in DXY from 104.2 to 104.7. We label this...

brown_maverick

In my previous analysis on DXY, I was contemplating if DXY is forming a leading diagonal or a (1)(2), i, ii setup ... Based on the wave count since then, an impulsive wave has formed since then. To be exact, an impulsive wave with a third wave extension and a contracting triangle as fourth wave, can be counted as the fifth wave of an expanding leading diagonal....

brown_maverick

A quick update on my thoughts on GDX ... A leading diagonal (1) followed by a flat (2), with wave (2) retracing 0.618 of wave (1) We should see a wave (3) occurring .....

brown_maverick

Another attempt to use Elliott wave to analyse Gold. New high gold prices have been reached over the successive past weeks since my last update in Dec 2023. There has been serious doubts whether I have been wrong in my wave counts for gold. But based on my umpteen repeated analysis of the the wave structure of gold since the 1980s ( I will present my case later...

brown_maverick

I was looking at the DXY on a 30 mins' scale and here's what I observe as depicted in the chart. a leading diagonal followed by a corrective three waves (abc) retracement that can be labelled as a (1),(2) setup. This is followed by an impulsive wave with a fifth wave extension catalyzes by the first rate hike by BOJ in 17 years. At the present moment, I am not...

brown_maverick

SGD has been holding up relatively well compared to other Asian currencies (RMB, JPY, ringgit etc) against USD over the past few years. It is one of the strongest currency in Asia, but not for long. Based on my analysis, USDSGD is in the 1,2 formation of the white C wave as depicted in the chart. USDSGD is the midst of completing the C wave of an expanded flat...

brown_maverick

Lately in the previous few posts on tradingview, I have been iterating on the bullish of DXY despite calls from many traders and analysts alike on the bearish of DXY. Their reason, impending interest rate cuts by the federal reserve. I am still skeptical on the number of rate cuts as well as when the Fed will actually take the first step to cut interest rate. The...

brown_maverick

Took a harder look at the DXY chart from October 2022 to end of December 2023. I managed to see a ABC structure with wave 'B' as an expanding triangle. Wave A and wave C can both be labelled as impulsive 5 waves. Wave C is 0.618 of wave A. We can say that the move from October 2022 to end December 2023 is corrective. And the subsequent move should lead the...

brown_maverick

Since end of December 2023, DXY has been on an uptrend. According to my analysis, DXY has completed a 5 wave impulsive wave, labelled as wave (1) with a fifth wave extension as depicted in the hourly chart. The ideal target price for fifth wave extension will be 1.0 or 1.618 of the length of starting wave to the end of wave 3 measured from the end of wave 4. In...

brown_maverick

The straight climb from Jan to July 2016 has been labelled by many EW analysts as wave 1 and the drop to 16 usd on Mar 2020 (during the covid period) as wave 2. I will, nonetheless, label them as wave W and X respectively as depicted in my chart. Wave W as a zigzag, wave X as flat (ABC), with wave B of X as an expanding flat. Using the rule of alteration, wave...

brown_maverick

Lots of bullish talk lately on gold and silver and that these precious metals are on the cusp of a next bullish cycle, with analysts and traders alike predicting the Fed will cut interest rate by the second quarter of 2024. I spoke to a silver trader this morning and he was extremely bullish on silver and even told me to start accumulating it. One EW analyst that...

brown_maverick Updated 

The recent week has been a good week for gold bulls, with gold reaching an all time high of 2150 on Dec 4 2023. It did cause me to have second thoughts whether I should re-visit my count and change my tone to a bullish count. For the past three tumultuous years, gold bulls and bears have been having a tug-of-war. Whenever gold reached the 2000 price region, it...

brown_maverick

I still hold on to the belief that the price movement of gold since its peak at Aug 2020 is a wave C, a 5 wave structure. But contrary to the popular belief that wave 1, 3 and 5 needs to be 5wave structure, there are literatures in the open that claims they can also be a 3 wave structure. Wave 1, as depicted in the chart, is a three wave (abc) structure with wave...

brown_maverick

People around have been asking me why I am bearish on gold and gold miners stock despite the war in Ukraine, Israel Hamas conflict in the middle east and even now, at the impending end of cycle rate hike by Federal Reserve. I am, on the contrary, very bullish on gold and gold miners' stocks, but not until a steep price drop in the near future. The sooner it drops...

brown_maverick

In my last update on DXY on 17 Jul, I predicted that the climb up "the wall of worry" of DXY from 99 region will be the 'c' wave of an expanded flat before heading back down again. DXY indeed went up from 99 to 107 region since then and then consolidating between 107 to 105 region in the past one month. Based on the structure of the impulsive wave, there is a...

brown_maverick

I decided to take a closer look at this ETF when an analyst wrote an article commenting that it is time to get bullish on 20+ year treasury bond etf, with strong support in the 85 region. This etf has been on a bearish trend since Mar 2020 and I would label this trend as an impulsive wave. As depicted in my chart, TLT is now on the path of wave v of a third...