brown_maverick

brown_maverick

I still hold on to the belief that the price movement of gold since its peak at Aug 2020 is a wave C, a 5 wave structure. But contrary to the popular belief that wave 1, 3 and 5 needs to be 5wave structure, there are literatures in the open that claims they can also be a 3 wave structure. Wave 1, as depicted in the chart, is a three wave (abc) structure with wave...

brown_maverick

People around have been asking me why I am bearish on gold and gold miners stock despite the war in Ukraine, Israel Hamas conflict in the middle east and even now, at the impending end of cycle rate hike by Federal Reserve. I am, on the contrary, very bullish on gold and gold miners' stocks, but not until a steep price drop in the near future. The sooner it drops...

brown_maverick

In my last update on DXY on 17 Jul, I predicted that the climb up "the wall of worry" of DXY from 99 region will be the 'c' wave of an expanded flat before heading back down again. DXY indeed went up from 99 to 107 region since then and then consolidating between 107 to 105 region in the past one month. Based on the structure of the impulsive wave, there is a...

brown_maverick

I decided to take a closer look at this ETF when an analyst wrote an article commenting that it is time to get bullish on 20+ year treasury bond etf, with strong support in the 85 region. This etf has been on a bearish trend since Mar 2020 and I would label this trend as an impulsive wave. As depicted in my chart, TLT is now on the path of wave v of a third...

brown_maverick

I wanted to post an analysis on GS but can't figure out on the fourth wave pattern of the third wave extension until recently when I saw a contracting triangle pattern forming. It's very common to see triangle in corrective fourth wave. not so in second wave. A decisive breakout above the resistance trendline of the contracting triangle will indicate the rally of...

brown_maverick

Since my last update on gold, gold has been trending in a meandering course. I took a hard look at its wave pattern and saw a double three Elliott wave pattern, a running flat (W), a zigzag (X) followed by a triangle(Y). We have a five wave impulse as wave i, a double three elliott wave (WXY) as wave ii. Once the breakdown of the b-d trendline in the triangle...

brown_maverick

I revisited the wave count of FXI yesterday and came out with an alternate 5-wave count compared with my previous analysis . The trend still remains bearish and there is no modifications in the target price. In this alternate count, we have a simple wave i, wave ii and wave iii as depicted in the graph and an expanded triangle as wave iv that consumes...

brown_maverick

Is the downtrend of gold miners stock resuming after the "bull run" from Aug 19 to 30? My primary analysis is based on Elliott wave. But it does not hurt to use candlesticks as an auxiliary one to reinforce it. A textbook example of the evening star appears in gold barrick. A gap up from Aug 29 to 30, with a large green candlestick on Aug 29, and a gap down...

brown_maverick

I came across an article recently about bullish on FXI. I had my doubts since I am not optimistic on the chinese economy as well as on the strength of RMB. So I decided to take a closer look at this etf index fund that tracks the movement of large cap equities in China. As depicted in my chart, we are now in the 5th wave of an impulsive wave that begins in Feb...

brown_maverick

I will consider the recent move from the Jul 20 (1987) to Jul 27 (1942) as a expanding leading diagonal and I will label it as wave i. It looks like a corrective wave, which may mislead people to think that the correction is over and gold is preparing for a rally. And the three wave (abc) retracement of 0.618 of wave i to 1972 as wave ii. We should see a drop...

brown_maverick

Since my last update on DXY, the index has been in the negative territory. And analysts have been bearish on DXY when the index broke the key support of 101 last week. Economists alike have reckoned that the interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end or close to it when the key inflation data came in less than expected last week. Looking at the chart, I...

brown_maverick

There has been much talk lately on the Chinese yuan (RMB) dethroning the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency within the next decade or so. I have been analysing the chart of USD/RMB from an Elliot wave's perspective to assess the possibility of that occurring. In my analysis, the pair USD/RMB has completed the running flat pattern (W) and is...

brown_maverick

I inadvertently stumbled upon the chart of IBM last night and I was intrigued with the pattern that has developed over the past thirty plus years since 1999 (the dot.com crisis). Economists and market analysts have been talking about the US economy undergoing a recession of late because of the interest rate hike and the sticky inflation, with the US stock...

brown_maverick

As we all know that cryptocurrency has been going a tough crypto winter for the whole of 2022. The debacle of FTX created a domino effect among other crypto platforms, and have caused catastrophic losses in both institutional and retail investors. So what lies ahead for the future of bitcoin ? In contrast to the stock market, commodities ( I will categorize...

brown_maverick

In my previous analysis, I mentioned that we are now in the 'B' wave of a impending triangle. After following the trend of gold for the past few weeks, I reckon that the X wave, a triple combination of flat (W), zig-zag (Y) and triangle (Z) is completed as depicted in the chart. A breakdown of the b-d support line of the triangle, at 1928 region, will be a first...

brown_maverick

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, crude oil has been undergoing a double three elliott wave pattern structure. Zigzig (W) - contracting triangle (X) - expanded flat (Y). We are now at the 'C' wave of the expanded flat. The eventual target price should be close to the low at Mar 2020 during the pandemic period before heading north.

brown_maverick

I reckon the move up from Sep 22 was corrective. Made some minor changes to my count in my last post, but the general picture is still the same. I label the move as a triple combination as depicted in the chart. Flat (W) - zigzag (X)- Zig Zag (Y) - triangle (X) - triangle (Z). A triangle may be in the making and I will label this move as A, with B, C, D and E,...

brown_maverick

Here's my analysis of HUI, gold bugs index. . In my analysis, wave (1) , (2), (3) and (4) all have 3 wave structure, with wave (4) more complex and time consuming than wave (2). This phenomenon usually points to a 5th wave extension. Another observation is wave (4) overlaps with wave (1), which leads to the possibility of an expanding ending diagonal. Following...