Buying strongly limited / Gold eyes #1,700.80 barrier

Gold's general commentary: Gold reached my personal maximum of #1,760.80 as the Price-action didn’t invalidated Daily chart’s solid Channel Down and is now testing the Lower Low pressure point. However, #1,738.80 is very strong Support as I see strong possibility of Gold testing and breaking it throughout current Weekly fractal (after such rise on early U.S. session last week), as Investors, after #4th in a row report announcement which missed their estimate, should draw capital from safe-have such as Gold, to other hedge assets - I doubt Gold has more potential to go Higher on Short-term. Bond Yields are soaring aswell due to the Fed’s Repurchase Agreements, which are making low risk assets such as Bond Yields to gain which could put strong pressure on Gold. The current Buying accumulation pattern on Hourly 4 chart is now on total Neutrality but attempting to break towards last week’s Higher Low, DX (# +0.21%) is Bullish as well as the Bond Yields (# +4.47%) were rising with every Hourly candle.


Technical analysis: Gold remains Bearish on the Hourly 4 chart, well Supported (Spot prices) at #1,727.80 and Resisted at #1,762.80. Notice how, even though the Hourly 4 chart’s strong Support broke already throughout yesterday's early E.U. Session, Price-action didn't close an Hourly 4 candle below, so no Buying signals there. On the contrary, the Hourly 1 chart clearly shows how the Hourly 1 chart’s Channel Down has rejected any upside attempts #4 times already since #9 Trading sessions. Keep an eye on the Bond Yields market, which I believe is the driver these days (along with DX); a break for Gold below #1,738.80 could push and expose the Daily chart’s Lower Low extension (below #1,727.80), which is currently near #1,700.80 psychological barrier. My estimations are showing that base-case scenario is even extending the Price-action below #1,700.80 (towards #1,678.80 Triple Bottom configuration), engaging aggressive takedown (total Selling domination) where I will be ready to pierce #1,727.80 structure with #2 piercing Selling orders. I am expecting #1,727.80 test within this week's boarders.


Fundamental analysis: The inability to get above #1,757.80 Resistance on the Hourly 4 chart along with the sharp fall on equities, are putting Gold under strong Selling pressure again. At the same time DX has made a new #1-week High, and the fact that Gold didn't follow with a steep Lower Low (#1,727.80 and below), leads me to believe that Short-term correlation switch occurred (Gold - Bond Yields / my main correlation and point of interests at the moment) and capital drawn from Gold is making Investors park their capital to Low risk assets such as Bond Yields. Bond Yields Top rejection is preventing steeper fall and defending the #1,727.80 level comfortably. Same configuration suggests that as long as Bond Yields are Trading on High’s, while DX engages the Neutral Price-action Rectangle, Gold may experience an aggressive takedown. In any case the Hourly 4 and Daily chart Technicals suggest that if #1,727.80 breaks, I should be seeing #1,717.80 next and #1,678.80 in extension. By my estimations, #1,588.80 - #1,592.80 is Gold’s Short-term stabilization zone and could attract Buyers at that point, but again the Profits on my Selling Medium-term orders (when #1,727.80 breaks) will be decent as I won’t mind Buying pressure on that vicinity. As such, my advice would be to Sell Gold when #1,727.80 breaks (Target #1,700.80, with Stop-loss being #12 points away). Regarding Fundamental part, there is interesting note to mention. Since Inflation chart is on ATH currently, Money Stock charts took my interests. All Money Supply charts (#M-1, #M-2, #M-3) were stable (printing almost similar numbers Yearly) until U.S. Housing crash crisis at #2008, until then, gradually Fed started printing more and more cash (cash that actually had to be printed, not just made digitally out of thin air). Currently, since #2019, chart is skyrocketing, especially MZM Money stock (printing mere #22,020 Trillion). This configuration actually means that government should be ready to print bigger and bigger Stimulus notes, not to prevent the disaster, just to postpone the final crash. Current Stimulus note was enough to cover current pre-crisis environment, but next need for Stimulus, number will be bigger greatly. With that being said, further Stimulus notes will just dig bigger and bigger hole for world’s economic affairs, and eventually, printing huge Stimulus won’t aid the economy. Regardless, traditional times that everyone mentions that Gold will rise when crisis kicks in, is matter of history. There are no more firm hedge assets and safe-havens, as Fed downplayed Gold Buyer’s intent (with Repurchase agreements, aswell on ATH), as Gold is headed to #52-Week Low and #1,588.80 and below eventually. I am expecting #1,475.80 within #1 Year fractal.


My position: I have engaged my Selling order few moments ago / #1,742.80 entry point (Lower Volume than expected), where I will implement strict Stop-loss rule / Risk management to prevent unexpected scenarios. If Price-action continues the Intra-day recovery, I will re-Sell within #1,750.80 - #1,753.80, as Buying is strongly limited. Typical Target of this structure contains #1,727.80, and if mentioned Support breaks, I will add more Selling orders there, aiming #1,700.80 psychological barrier.