goldenBear88

I am Bullish on Gold / Long Term

Long
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and House Sales missed their estimates by a respectable margin the DX is already pulling back on a small Bearish Daily candle. The Stock markets also follow that decline and the only reason Gold hasn't acted according to its negative correlation is the consolidation of USD-JPY on high levels. However it is also just below its Daily support and it should start pulling upwards, so according to my technical indicators, Gold is on the verge of an aggressive Bullish break-out (Mid-next week). As long as H(5) remains stable, Gold has more chances of breaking the #1,534.20 neckline of the Daily Head and Shoulders than testing the Daily Resist zone #1,519.20 - #1,528.80 (#200 Exponential Moving Average ). I remain fully Bullish on the long term, however if #1,515.70 doesn't break till Friday, Buying pressure on Gold and new uptrend is not sustainable and we will change our strategy accordingly and then make our move. Also H(4) Chart, as I can see, confronted Sellers head on yesterday. Influenced by a DX, H(4) action pressed Gold as far south as current values, though managed to find a bottom just near support level priced in at #1,501.20. Whether price action decides to retest the H(4) supply tomorrow is difficult to judge, given daily support is seen near it's end. Taking all things into consideration with the possibility of a Hourly 4 AB-CD Bullish formation taking shape, we will still hold our Buy positions. What this also implies is a fakeout of nearby H(4) Resist at #1,521.20 may take shape so it is important for Buyers to bear this in mind if they are contemplating a long from this vicinity. Ultimately, I believe if the market tests daily Resist highlighted above, rotation to the downside will be taken out from consideration. This is simply because both Weekly and Daily timeframes agree's on the same Resistance line. Should Gold explore higher ground today or tomorrow from current prices, on the other hand, and challenge the current H(4) supply, I recommend waiting for the area to be engulfed. A break above this zone followed by a pullback to the H(4) support/daily support places the market in good stead for a rally towards weekly resistance at #1,537.70 which is not a good sign for Sellers. The break through H(4) supply, if happens, theoretically clears the majority of Sellers out of the market, unlocking the pathway to upper levels. As I previously mentioned, note the weekly resistance level is also joined by a possible AB-CD Bullish completion point and a nearby 50.0% resistance value which, if this week's support doesn't break, might become active. Long term Take profit: #1,552.20, Bullish momentum on Gold is inevitable.

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