Gold's general commentary: Taking the strong downtrend on DX into consideration, Gold is extending it’s ranged candles, showcasing the strong underlying Bearish trend. With the Bond Yields currently Trading on red candles and the DX rejected on the Weekly High’s (above #103.600 Resistance) on U.S. opening, I would like to note that Gold is consolidating on the Lower High's trendline of the Ascending Channel and as one can see on the historic aspect, it resembles the last Lower High's zone and ready to turn downwards yet again, as on Medium-term (final destination of Bearish cycle) March’s #1,678.80 Double Bottom should reject the Price-action, which is a tough nut to crack for Medium-term Investors. This validates it even more. More specifically with #1,836.80 as the Hourly 4 chart’s Support, if it breaks I am expecting an aggressive Gap fill at #1,807.80 within #2 sessions. The Daily chart turned Bearish sessions ago and can Support the speculative Technical downtrend, where I announced on multiple occasions that I expect #1752.80 or less within early June's fractal. This #2 sessions horizon coincides with the release of the U.S. High Impact news, so all the parameters Support a speculative downtrend on Gold amplified by a strong upswing on DX trending upwards. Remember, whenever Fundamental dust / pressure settles, Gold will experience aggressive takedown as DX is sole reason why Gold is Trading on recent gains.
Technical analysis: Gold broke the #1,837.80 Hourly 4 chart’s former Resistance, however #1,852.80 barrier is stalling the uptrend and I am now expecting a test of the Hourly 4 chart first Support zone of #1,821.80 - #1,827.80 (before #1,807.80 and #1,800.80 barrier). With the catalysts of the next week reporting later on, I can see consolidation within #1,810.80 - #1,820.80 before a bigger proportion move later into the week. With the DX on recovery candles (# +0.16%) and Bond Yields (# +0.57%) staying rather weak without rebounding, the underlying trend is currently Bearish regarding Short-term. Hourly 4 chart has been on Lower High’s since yesterday’s session and a breakout on current levels formed an Ascending Channel. DX touched #102.90 again, forming a very Bullish Fundamental outlook for Gold. Keep in mind that on a Daily basis (June #14 fractal resemblance) Gold is still on straight #1 - #2 Bearish week's in general and there is still time even for the current Monthly candle to close in losses. Gold shows High durability on a near new Intra-day High’s but there are certain aspects that make me sceptical on whether or not this can be sustainable.
Fundamental analysis: Gold is Trading under strong Buying pressure from DX on one of the strongest Intra-day declines since #Q4, which Naturally attracted Gold’s Buyers skyrocketing the Price-action almost #23 points within just few Hours. Regardless, there is nothing more attached and confirming the upside momentum on Gold as I doubt that it will continue when DX engages the rebound and eases the Buying pressure on Gold. In addition to that, Bond Yields had reversed Intra-day and are near a #2-session High. Usd-Jpy pair is also near the #2-session Support. Based on the above, Gold shouldn’t be above it’s #1,852.80 Short-term Resistance (psychological barrier), but yet again (with mixed signals on various instruments), not aswell below #1,800.80 barrier on the other side. The RSI both on the Daily chart, but mostly on Hourly 4 chart is idle at it’s best. However, with the further Fed developments and always changing tightening speculations (adding Volatility almost on Hourly basis, visible on every candle), I won't be surprised to see a very negative week on Bond Yields, which would be Bullish-wise for Gold (only if #1,852.80 breaks) and pause the Medium-term fair Technical downtrend extension. If #1,852.80 holds also throughout today’s U.S. session, Buying bias is invalidated. My advice would be to wait for the right opportunity to add Selling orders and that's definitely not now ahead of U.S. session opening. I will keep operating with Selling orders indicating elemental Selling trend (giving more probabilities to the downside), and will update if a good opportunity arises on the other hand. Yet again, I will be extra careful with my next order as Traders witnessed how Fundamentals (DX) can momentarily distort Technical trends with violent spikes, which could be disastrous for one’s capital.
My position: I was on sidelines for more than #1 session as my #1,825.80 Stop-loss got triggered throughout yesterday's developments, where my entry of #1,814.80 got invalidated and Gold extended green candles. I will comfortably continue monitoring the Price-action from sidelines, awaiting Monday's session to make my move.
Technical analysis: Gold broke the #1,837.80 Hourly 4 chart’s former Resistance, however #1,852.80 barrier is stalling the uptrend and I am now expecting a test of the Hourly 4 chart first Support zone of #1,821.80 - #1,827.80 (before #1,807.80 and #1,800.80 barrier). With the catalysts of the next week reporting later on, I can see consolidation within #1,810.80 - #1,820.80 before a bigger proportion move later into the week. With the DX on recovery candles (# +0.16%) and Bond Yields (# +0.57%) staying rather weak without rebounding, the underlying trend is currently Bearish regarding Short-term. Hourly 4 chart has been on Lower High’s since yesterday’s session and a breakout on current levels formed an Ascending Channel. DX touched #102.90 again, forming a very Bullish Fundamental outlook for Gold. Keep in mind that on a Daily basis (June #14 fractal resemblance) Gold is still on straight #1 - #2 Bearish week's in general and there is still time even for the current Monthly candle to close in losses. Gold shows High durability on a near new Intra-day High’s but there are certain aspects that make me sceptical on whether or not this can be sustainable.
Fundamental analysis: Gold is Trading under strong Buying pressure from DX on one of the strongest Intra-day declines since #Q4, which Naturally attracted Gold’s Buyers skyrocketing the Price-action almost #23 points within just few Hours. Regardless, there is nothing more attached and confirming the upside momentum on Gold as I doubt that it will continue when DX engages the rebound and eases the Buying pressure on Gold. In addition to that, Bond Yields had reversed Intra-day and are near a #2-session High. Usd-Jpy pair is also near the #2-session Support. Based on the above, Gold shouldn’t be above it’s #1,852.80 Short-term Resistance (psychological barrier), but yet again (with mixed signals on various instruments), not aswell below #1,800.80 barrier on the other side. The RSI both on the Daily chart, but mostly on Hourly 4 chart is idle at it’s best. However, with the further Fed developments and always changing tightening speculations (adding Volatility almost on Hourly basis, visible on every candle), I won't be surprised to see a very negative week on Bond Yields, which would be Bullish-wise for Gold (only if #1,852.80 breaks) and pause the Medium-term fair Technical downtrend extension. If #1,852.80 holds also throughout today’s U.S. session, Buying bias is invalidated. My advice would be to wait for the right opportunity to add Selling orders and that's definitely not now ahead of U.S. session opening. I will keep operating with Selling orders indicating elemental Selling trend (giving more probabilities to the downside), and will update if a good opportunity arises on the other hand. Yet again, I will be extra careful with my next order as Traders witnessed how Fundamentals (DX) can momentarily distort Technical trends with violent spikes, which could be disastrous for one’s capital.
My position: I was on sidelines for more than #1 session as my #1,825.80 Stop-loss got triggered throughout yesterday's developments, where my entry of #1,814.80 got invalidated and Gold extended green candles. I will comfortably continue monitoring the Price-action from sidelines, awaiting Monday's session to make my move.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
