Selling strongly limited / crossroads for the Week

Gold's general commentary: Gold had decent upswing throughout Friday’s U.S. session and Naturally the market reacted with a rejection, on early E.U. session opening. The pullback can extend as Low as the Support on Daily chart which is currently Trading at #1,810.80 and if broken, #1,800.80 psychological barrier in extension before new Short-term Buyers appear. The real market news are already digested by market so don't be surprised if you see thin Volume on Wall Street's opening, followed by Volatility as today’s session (in my book), won’t reveal any clues since DX is on miraculous recovery, followed by Bullish Gap fills on Bond Yields, and sessions like current one, rarely offer any Short-term conclusions (only unprecedented Volatility). If #1,832.80 fails to hold, #1,845.80 is the next Resistance and expect a Lower High at #1,852.80, re-Sell zone if #1,858.80 holds. Gold is bound to give one more Lower High before the Bearish Medium-term trend resumes. As DX is on decent recovery and Bond Yields still Trading above the Resistance zone, I am expecting no further upside momentum on Gold, and due to mixed structure on Fundamental side, I will remain off the markets for the session.


Fundamental analysis: Gold remains Neutral on the Hourly 4 chart, Supported at #1,810.80 (August #8 session High) and Resisted at #1,823.80 (August #27 High). Notice how, even though the Hourly 4 chart's Support broke, Price-action didn't close an Hourly 4 candle below, so no Selling signals there. On the contrary, the Hourly 1 chart clearly shows how the Hourly 1 chart has rejected any upside attempts #4 consecutive times already since August #27. Keep an eye on the Bond Yields market, which I believe is the driver these days (along with DX); a break for Gold above #1,823.80 could push to the Daily chart's Resistance zone, which is currently around #1,840’s. As discussed, I need a full candle close above the Resistance, or below (to confirm the Short-term direction) as current bias is too Volatile to provide a proper fair trend.


Technical analysis: The Hourly 1 chart's Channel Down, I mentioned is in extension on the previous Hourly 4 chart candle downwards and, as mentioned is Targeting the #1,810.80 Support. As long as #1,810.80 holds as an Support, Gold will spike up before the next Medium-term Bearish leg, but if #1,810.80 breaks, it should be an aggressive decline towards #1,800.80 barrier where the Price-action is expected to be in #1 session’s time. To be honest I am surprised that Gold was extending the consolidation, I expected that to take place after the revelation of the major move on most exchanges. But since the Bond Yields are Trading on Bullish Gap fill and DX rising (ignoring the disastrous U.S. Fundamental announcements), every Gap needs to be filled and sooner or later, Gold should spike upwards. Selling bias is postponed as it is too late to engage Selling order now (weak RIsk/Reward ratio). If this is the eventual rejection (#1,800.80 - #1,805.80), then I can have a Buying sequence back to #1,820's at least throughout tomorrow's session. The first level of Support though is, as mentioned above #1,810.80 (symmetrical from last Month), where the Hourly 4 fractal also happens to be. Fundamentally, Gold continues to track the Bond Yields movement ignoring the (minor but steady) uptrend on DX. Statistic is there to Support my outlook - last Higher Low attempt and apparent rejection, Gold retraced more than #57 points afterwards, so same fractal could be the case shortly. I am Selling Gold only if #1,800.80 breaks.