Fundamental side spiking Gold up, Technically, #1,727.80 is next

Gold's general commentary: As expected Gold reached and got rejected near Lower Resistance zone priced at #1,766.80, in the same manner as the Support zone of #1,753.80 on the Daily chart, as the emerging Hourly 1 chart Channel Up should now keep consolidating until major move is revealed (range #1,755.80 - #1,770.80). In my opinion, Gold should be timed for an downswing / correction but I cannot expect cooling down the Oversold levels with DX struggling to make Bullish comeback and Bond Yields on spiral uptrend (but still without major recovery signs). Seems like the Fed is keeping Bond Yields on Yearly Low’s to encourage Investors to have more trust in equities in the fight against Inflation, currently on ATH. Technically, the Channel Up has an upside Lower High limit within #1,789.80 extension before it makes a new High and confirm that Buying is in continuation (less likely). If however #1,765.80 breaks first, I expect an aggressive takedown towards #1,727.80. The Daily chart’s Resistance rests near this configuration and is where the Daily chart should Resist once again the Short-term Bearish trend within the new Bear Cycle. Note that today’s session pullback on DX assisted Gold's Price-action and prevented further uptrend, but as Wall Street opening Bell is approaching, it appears to be reversing. As discussed, I believe the market will present the dominant move after today’s U.S. opening (Fed minutes) and with the DX (main correlation I have at the moment along with Bond Yields), Gold is still Bearish as I see no firm reason for Buying sustainability at the moment.


Fundamental analysis: Gold engaged Buying sequence as I’ve been monitoring it throughout E.U. session, with Chinese property development giant (Evergrande) on a verge of a new crisis, which Highly impacted world’s economy affairs and added strong Buying pressure on Gold, as Investors once again used Gold as an traditional safe-haven asset which affected my pre and post Fed minutes positioning model. However, market closing below the #1,765.80 Support is calling for meltdown. Since the Resistance broke, Gold set Target for the August’s High and #1,800.80 psychological barrier as discussed lately, but the Resistance break didn’t offered any conclusions as upside potential seems strongly limited, even though that DX is on mild decline for #2 session row. The Hourly 1 candle though turned Bearish as I have so far a strong rejection on the U.S. session Top (#1,782.80 configuration). Hourly 1 chart still reveals an Channel Up but practically Gold has been Trading sideways on the big scale (#1,763.80 - #1,783.80) since since start of the Trading week (futures too) with Tops being made roughly ever #3 - #5 sessions so, to rule out Bullish reversal, I will wait for market closing on today’s session to confirm the downtrend.


Technical analysis: Below #1,765.80 break, the Low-risk High-return Trade is to Sell on spot as close to Support as possible and aim at least for the Hourly 4 chart’s Selling extension - near #1,727.80, however if #1,789.80 gets broken - the Price-action will most likely make a Higher Low extension at #1,792.80 followed by #1,800.80 psychological barrier test. It is useful to add here once more that Gold is also rising on the factor that Fed announcement is within #10 Hours. As long as Gold is below #1,789.80, there are chances for a Bearish breakthrough, above - my Selling outlook is invalidated and I will shift my strategy (regarding Short-term, Medium-term stays fully Bearish). That Fundamental driven moves can easily reverse, current pattern confirmed it since strong Resistance was broken and DX is on a decline / but Gold was rejected above the pressure point and didn’t risen as much. Regarding the Fed minutes, I am expecting Quantitative easing to continue with a more aggressive hawkish tone, where rate will most likely remain unchanged. In such scenario, DX will be on decent upswing on the aftermath (even though that Fed statistically revives Buyers), adding confidence to Gold’s Sellers.


My position: My yesterday's session Selling order got invalidated with Stop-loss hit. I re-Sold the Price-action with #1,775.80 as an key entry point. I will not leave my position without strict Risk management and exit points, as Fed sessions are usually most Volatile ones. My Target is #1,750.80 first, and if #1,765.80 breaks, I will add additional Selling order as I expect aggressive takedown on Gold, on the Fed minutes aftermath. I will constantly monitor my order on Hourly basis, as my aim is not to endanger my capital and excellent results I had throughout August - September fractal.