Gold within Neutral Rectangle for more than #5 sessions
Gold's general commentary: So far Gold has failed at attempt to break the #1,832.80 Resistance Zone on Hourly 4 chart, despite an #5 consecutive session of gains and Monthly High’s test. Keep in mind that #1,819.80 Support should be broken on Hourly 4 chart and with Bond Yields on spiral uptrend, I see no reason why Gold shouldn’t lose with every Hourly candle towards #1,800.80 psychological barrier and fully confirm Bearish underlying Medium-term trend. That would be a very same development on any other occasion, regardless CPI was priced in throughout yesterday’s session which was positive-wise for DX and Bond Yields on Higher timeframes (expect Volatility ahead Intra-day).
Fundamental analysis: Interesting fractal on Daily chart where Price-action was Trading above the Upper zone of Bollinger bands, which was instantly rejected as always Price-action tends to Trade within Bollinger Bands since #2002 Year. Historically, last time Gold was rejected above the Bollinger Bands on Daily chart (January #6 #2021), Gold extended the Medium-term decline of more than #150 points on the aftermath (currently, Price-action may Target #1,766.80 towards Lower Bollinger Band line). Usd-Jpy pair is testing Higher Low’s on it’s Daily Chart’s Descending Channel (and eminent rejection), DX is above Neutral Rectangle for a while now. Personally, I expect Gold to successfully break #1,819.80 by next week as a series of High impact data are released (Chinese, German, UK and US Manufacturing PMI and most importantly, U.S. CPI). What obstructed Gold from breaking the #1,832.80 Quadruple Top was the positive issue of the new Inflation prices (and already passed Bill where Fed will Buy Bond Yields), which is evident on Hourly 1 chart’s Bearish Divergence. I remain Bearish on both Short and Medium-term, using such opportunities to Sell every rise which Gold makes. Important note: when you fully confirm the underlying trend on Gold, if it is a Bullish - always Buy the dips and take every chance as Long opportunity, if the trend is Bearish, use every opportunity to Sell every High / Spike which Gold makes, but lately Gold is Trading under violent Volatility where it is difficult to foresee Intra-day trend. Another rejection so far on #1,832.80 - #1,835.80 Resistance cluster, after one of the many failed break attempts since early January. I don’t expect July’s Quadruple Top line to break significantly without serious cause.
Technical analysis: Once again Price-action went to Stop-loss hunting (current violent Volatility is making Gold market Highly unstable lately) where DX broken the Medium-term Resistance line and Bond Yields on #2-Year High’s were unsuccessful to engage much expected Selling sequence on Gold. Even though Core CPI announcement delivered expected numbers, Support zone almost broke but shortly after Gold rebounded and is currently within the (former) #1,827.80 - #1,832.80 Resistance zone fractal (variable disastrous for Short-term Traders). The Hourly 4 chart was at it’s Highest since pressure point on more than #4 occasions since January #27 as Daily chart’s Bullish values are well preserved, able to convert to Neutral once Hourly 1 chart Support zone is invalidated. These are positive signs for Gold’s Short-term Buyers but as discussed, the market has turned to Fundamentals again for direction as Bond Yields are still not on Top of my importance list. Failure to deliver a supportive sentiment may panic the Yields more and Gold may suffer double the effect as DX should continue to gain in value with Investors using it as safe-haven (note that this was similar to what happened in February and early March on virus outbreak). If Gold holds today’s session High’s it can pierce the #1,852.80 (within #2 sessions), otherwise look to re-Sell near #1,819.80 Support. It is important to keep in mind that Gold is an Ascending Channel on Hourly 4 chart and #1,832.80 can be distinguished as an ultimate Top and rejection point. As Price-action is Trading within #15 points (plus-minus) for #5 sessions now, it is best to remain on sidelines without any orders, since current Price-action is only suitable for Scalpers of the market.
Fundamental analysis: Interesting fractal on Daily chart where Price-action was Trading above the Upper zone of Bollinger bands, which was instantly rejected as always Price-action tends to Trade within Bollinger Bands since #2002 Year. Historically, last time Gold was rejected above the Bollinger Bands on Daily chart (January #6 #2021), Gold extended the Medium-term decline of more than #150 points on the aftermath (currently, Price-action may Target #1,766.80 towards Lower Bollinger Band line). Usd-Jpy pair is testing Higher Low’s on it’s Daily Chart’s Descending Channel (and eminent rejection), DX is above Neutral Rectangle for a while now. Personally, I expect Gold to successfully break #1,819.80 by next week as a series of High impact data are released (Chinese, German, UK and US Manufacturing PMI and most importantly, U.S. CPI). What obstructed Gold from breaking the #1,832.80 Quadruple Top was the positive issue of the new Inflation prices (and already passed Bill where Fed will Buy Bond Yields), which is evident on Hourly 1 chart’s Bearish Divergence. I remain Bearish on both Short and Medium-term, using such opportunities to Sell every rise which Gold makes. Important note: when you fully confirm the underlying trend on Gold, if it is a Bullish - always Buy the dips and take every chance as Long opportunity, if the trend is Bearish, use every opportunity to Sell every High / Spike which Gold makes, but lately Gold is Trading under violent Volatility where it is difficult to foresee Intra-day trend. Another rejection so far on #1,832.80 - #1,835.80 Resistance cluster, after one of the many failed break attempts since early January. I don’t expect July’s Quadruple Top line to break significantly without serious cause.
Technical analysis: Once again Price-action went to Stop-loss hunting (current violent Volatility is making Gold market Highly unstable lately) where DX broken the Medium-term Resistance line and Bond Yields on #2-Year High’s were unsuccessful to engage much expected Selling sequence on Gold. Even though Core CPI announcement delivered expected numbers, Support zone almost broke but shortly after Gold rebounded and is currently within the (former) #1,827.80 - #1,832.80 Resistance zone fractal (variable disastrous for Short-term Traders). The Hourly 4 chart was at it’s Highest since pressure point on more than #4 occasions since January #27 as Daily chart’s Bullish values are well preserved, able to convert to Neutral once Hourly 1 chart Support zone is invalidated. These are positive signs for Gold’s Short-term Buyers but as discussed, the market has turned to Fundamentals again for direction as Bond Yields are still not on Top of my importance list. Failure to deliver a supportive sentiment may panic the Yields more and Gold may suffer double the effect as DX should continue to gain in value with Investors using it as safe-haven (note that this was similar to what happened in February and early March on virus outbreak). If Gold holds today’s session High’s it can pierce the #1,852.80 (within #2 sessions), otherwise look to re-Sell near #1,819.80 Support. It is important to keep in mind that Gold is an Ascending Channel on Hourly 4 chart and #1,832.80 can be distinguished as an ultimate Top and rejection point. As Price-action is Trading within #15 points (plus-minus) for #5 sessions now, it is best to remain on sidelines without any orders, since current Price-action is only suitable for Scalpers of the market.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
