Gold's general commentary: Interesting turn of events regarding the Short-term as Gold crossed the second Resistance (and is Trading #6 points above it currently) on the Hourly 4 chart and crossed aswell #6-session High’s, which may result as an traditional Selling back the gains, offering no Bullish continuation patterns to Trade by. This is an additional Short-term Selling signal similar to February #2 - #5 #2020 parabolic rise, which ended as an correction. Hourly 4 chart’s much needed consolidation (current dip Buying) and is again leaning on Bullish side rather than Neutral, as Gold is still ignoring strong Oversold levels on Bond Yields, following mostly losses on DX (taking strong hits), turning aswell Oversold in the process as global Geo-politics dust rises, and as long those guide the market sentiment, further uncertainty on Gold is inevitable.
Fundamental analysis: Interesting fractal yet to be repeated on Bond Yields, with much similarities with the Price-action: Trading on impulse and reached the Top (March #11 - #18), engaged the Selling sequence, the again (March #25 - #30), engaged the recovery, while cycle is repeated and Bond Yields are currently on spiral downtrend. If cycle is to be repeated, Bond Yields should be Trading on aggressive impulse towards the Short-term Resistance, which can add enormous Selling pressure on Gold. It is dangerous to Buy Gold at the moment on any point since Bond Yields can skyrocket anytime and break Buyer’s intent and hit their Stop-losses. If Short-term Support gives away once again, Trading at #1,823.80, Gold can give one more downturn opportunity towards #1,800.80 psychological benchmark. Other than that, with U.S. announcements speculations (announcing the #5-Month Plan policy Bill) I see no reason to make any kind strategy shift so far.
Technical analysis: I have nothing to add to my previous discussion except Volatility on a rampage (surely visible how the Fundamental statistics were mixed giving Gold Buying pressure on Hourly horizon) and only if #1,833.80 is broken and market closes the session above, Bearish bias is invalidated. Despite Monday’s session strong response to #1,805.80 session Low’s / local Lower Low’s area, Gold failed to maintain those Low levels and was rejected near the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,805.80 - #1,809.80 Support zone. Yet, it still found Resistance on the Daily chart’s Higher Low’s Lower zone of #1,826.80 - #1,833.80, which manages to reject any upside attempt and has High potential to contain this pullback. If Support is broken and #1,800’s variance is activated, I expect aggressive slide and Gap fill on Gold towards #1,792.80 (representing first Lower Low’s on chart, untouched since December #23). Also the Daily chart has been Overbought for some time and unless Gold Trades at least sideways for this Month, Daily chart will always pressure for a Support test below the #MA50, which is translated that the current Bullish Price-action has Low sustainability chances. #3 straight Bullish candles (sequence last seen on January #23 - January #26) led only to bigger slide on Gold according to the cycle. Buyers need stronger Bullish sequence in order to plan more gains on Gold, however keep in mind that Weekly chart (#1W) is still on healthy Bearish Technicals and isolated within Descending Channel (# +0.05%). Overall, I do expect Gold to finish March in Bearish fashion aswell (pointing on more losses ahead) while Monthly Gold's candle is still on negative gradient (# -4.90%). If market closes below #1,833.80 Resistance and DX finds the Support and engages relief rally, expect #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test within #1 - #3 session interval.
My position: My Stop-loss was triggered throughout yesterday's session (#1,812.80 - #1,823.80) as I will not assume any more orders for current session, and will observe the Price-action from sidelines. This is first Stop-loss hit on the last #7 Trades where I allowed additional risk on the last Trade, Selling near Technical Bottom. Gold is purely rising due weakness on DX as a catalyst.
Fundamental analysis: Interesting fractal yet to be repeated on Bond Yields, with much similarities with the Price-action: Trading on impulse and reached the Top (March #11 - #18), engaged the Selling sequence, the again (March #25 - #30), engaged the recovery, while cycle is repeated and Bond Yields are currently on spiral downtrend. If cycle is to be repeated, Bond Yields should be Trading on aggressive impulse towards the Short-term Resistance, which can add enormous Selling pressure on Gold. It is dangerous to Buy Gold at the moment on any point since Bond Yields can skyrocket anytime and break Buyer’s intent and hit their Stop-losses. If Short-term Support gives away once again, Trading at #1,823.80, Gold can give one more downturn opportunity towards #1,800.80 psychological benchmark. Other than that, with U.S. announcements speculations (announcing the #5-Month Plan policy Bill) I see no reason to make any kind strategy shift so far.
Technical analysis: I have nothing to add to my previous discussion except Volatility on a rampage (surely visible how the Fundamental statistics were mixed giving Gold Buying pressure on Hourly horizon) and only if #1,833.80 is broken and market closes the session above, Bearish bias is invalidated. Despite Monday’s session strong response to #1,805.80 session Low’s / local Lower Low’s area, Gold failed to maintain those Low levels and was rejected near the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,805.80 - #1,809.80 Support zone. Yet, it still found Resistance on the Daily chart’s Higher Low’s Lower zone of #1,826.80 - #1,833.80, which manages to reject any upside attempt and has High potential to contain this pullback. If Support is broken and #1,800’s variance is activated, I expect aggressive slide and Gap fill on Gold towards #1,792.80 (representing first Lower Low’s on chart, untouched since December #23). Also the Daily chart has been Overbought for some time and unless Gold Trades at least sideways for this Month, Daily chart will always pressure for a Support test below the #MA50, which is translated that the current Bullish Price-action has Low sustainability chances. #3 straight Bullish candles (sequence last seen on January #23 - January #26) led only to bigger slide on Gold according to the cycle. Buyers need stronger Bullish sequence in order to plan more gains on Gold, however keep in mind that Weekly chart (#1W) is still on healthy Bearish Technicals and isolated within Descending Channel (# +0.05%). Overall, I do expect Gold to finish March in Bearish fashion aswell (pointing on more losses ahead) while Monthly Gold's candle is still on negative gradient (# -4.90%). If market closes below #1,833.80 Resistance and DX finds the Support and engages relief rally, expect #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test within #1 - #3 session interval.
My position: My Stop-loss was triggered throughout yesterday's session (#1,812.80 - #1,823.80) as I will not assume any more orders for current session, and will observe the Price-action from sidelines. This is first Stop-loss hit on the last #7 Trades where I allowed additional risk on the last Trade, Selling near Technical Bottom. Gold is purely rising due weakness on DX as a catalyst.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
