Gold maintains Selling Technical perspective / #1,700.80 next
Gold's general commentary: Despite the strong Bearish candle sequence on the Bond Yields, Gold remains Neutral and above my Support for the day as the U.S. session approaches and Congress tensions resurface. However, #1,778.80 is new/old Resistance zone made by the Hourly 4 candlestick configuration. Gold is pulling back again after it failed to break above it’s Higher Low on the Hourly 4 chart. Still I haven’t got confirmation for Short-term opportunity and it is still not worth entering the market without tight Risk management. Today’s Wall Street opening Bell can have Bullish impact also on DX, hence Bearish for Gold. My Selling bias is unchanged as I will treat Bullish spikes as an oscillation from Overbought to Neutral (Williams%), which created new space for Bearish aggressive correction. Gold is extending the sideways action, following the continuation of the former Hourly 1 chart Channel Up, as Bond Yields and DX are suffering the mild losses for the #2nd straight session (DX taking strong hits), current environment is Gold friendly (should spike upwards) but not on my surprise, Gold is losing with every candle against the recovery trend which made me remain off the markets until late U.S. session, offering me no Medium-term patterns to Trade by. See how Gold's strong Selling level of the #1,760.80 - #1,750.80 zone is far from fair symmetrical manner with disastrous side Swings on Bond Yields and DX as the strongest correlation so far, but currently both assets are on decline, fractal that last happened on September #2012 Year, messenger of strong unprecedented Volatility. As I am Highly sceptical, and having strong reservations of current Gold’s miraculous recovery, I don’t think that Gold will continue the uptrend. On the other side, there is no factor to push Gold downwards again (except ISM announcements meeting the forecast, engaging recovery candles on DX), so I will wait for #1,750.80 Support break to make my move towards #1,727.80 and #1,700.80 in succession.
Fundamental analysis: Gold should be Neutral / Bearish on Short-term, and as Gold is well known as relief asset (should soar as relief) with Inflation rising and Money supply chart’s maxing the ATH, DX is loosing with every candle (cooling down Overbought levels). However, I don’t expect Gold to preserve sole hedge asset against Inflation (traditional values), and Gold's faked #2.000 + per ounce pricing throughout August #2020 was one of the biggest Bull-traps (revealed by Fed), Price-action which was spiked up undoubtedly without a firm reason for a such rise. That Price-action was inflated, aggressive takedown on the aftermath revealed. On the Short-term, the Hourly 4 chart is critically Overbought, and Natural response should be #1,788.80 extension which I am sceptic about since Gold is Trading under hawkish Fed aftermath, and #1,778.80 Bullish test pretence, printing exactly the same movements as DX does. Below #1,778.80 is also where the first Hourly 4 chart Support is (note that Gold haven't touched the Hourly 4 strong Support since #2 sessions). Despite still having a full week of data ahead and the catalyst of the week - NFP which can reveal a major move.
Technical analysis: As the Hourly 1 chart’s Channel Up broken downwards, Gold already tested the Higher Low levels (due to miraculous #2-Hour recovery on Yields) and a closing below #1,750.80 sequence could set the final motion for the Lower Low extension test (around #1,700.80 psychological barrier) which is a strong Buying accumulation region. Again, the recovery came earlier than I expected (nearly middle of last Trading week) as I was contemplating Buying order as Gold was Trading under full Bearish dominance and bias, ready to deliver #1 more Lower Low extension. The main reason for yesterday's strong consolidation and side Swings is the risk-off sentiment on the Bond Yields along with the rebound on DX. Stock markets are irrelevant at this point. With U.S. manufacturing posting the first rise since May, risk appetite is improving and that applies aswell mixed pressure on safe-havens like Gold, despite the U.S. economy on a downfall. The Hourly 4 chart is now Neutral as I am expecting Sellers to re-emerge by the end of the week with Gold’s takedown ahead. I will not engage Short-term positions for current week, only Medium-term: Selling if #1,750 breaks (if however decline constitutes #15 point or more, I will wait for tomorrow's session). Current sequence is similar to the September #24 - #28 (#2020) pattern when a Double Bottom was made before the strong rebound. It is therefore possible to re-test #1,700.80 psychological barrier before rebounding, as the DX touched its Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone and failed to break it. Also Gold's future weakness will Highly correlated with the strength on the Bond Yields and DX, rallying ahead of the financial crisis which is ahead. As discussed, the Hourly 4 chart’s Rectangle should be timed for downside. I am looking to complete a full oscillation to #1,727.80 firstly, and #1,700.80 barrier / my main point of interests, but not yet - Gold firstly needs to digest the news speculations. Consequently, the current consolidation and another Bearish wave should come as no Technical surprise.
Fundamental analysis: Gold should be Neutral / Bearish on Short-term, and as Gold is well known as relief asset (should soar as relief) with Inflation rising and Money supply chart’s maxing the ATH, DX is loosing with every candle (cooling down Overbought levels). However, I don’t expect Gold to preserve sole hedge asset against Inflation (traditional values), and Gold's faked #2.000 + per ounce pricing throughout August #2020 was one of the biggest Bull-traps (revealed by Fed), Price-action which was spiked up undoubtedly without a firm reason for a such rise. That Price-action was inflated, aggressive takedown on the aftermath revealed. On the Short-term, the Hourly 4 chart is critically Overbought, and Natural response should be #1,788.80 extension which I am sceptic about since Gold is Trading under hawkish Fed aftermath, and #1,778.80 Bullish test pretence, printing exactly the same movements as DX does. Below #1,778.80 is also where the first Hourly 4 chart Support is (note that Gold haven't touched the Hourly 4 strong Support since #2 sessions). Despite still having a full week of data ahead and the catalyst of the week - NFP which can reveal a major move.
Technical analysis: As the Hourly 1 chart’s Channel Up broken downwards, Gold already tested the Higher Low levels (due to miraculous #2-Hour recovery on Yields) and a closing below #1,750.80 sequence could set the final motion for the Lower Low extension test (around #1,700.80 psychological barrier) which is a strong Buying accumulation region. Again, the recovery came earlier than I expected (nearly middle of last Trading week) as I was contemplating Buying order as Gold was Trading under full Bearish dominance and bias, ready to deliver #1 more Lower Low extension. The main reason for yesterday's strong consolidation and side Swings is the risk-off sentiment on the Bond Yields along with the rebound on DX. Stock markets are irrelevant at this point. With U.S. manufacturing posting the first rise since May, risk appetite is improving and that applies aswell mixed pressure on safe-havens like Gold, despite the U.S. economy on a downfall. The Hourly 4 chart is now Neutral as I am expecting Sellers to re-emerge by the end of the week with Gold’s takedown ahead. I will not engage Short-term positions for current week, only Medium-term: Selling if #1,750 breaks (if however decline constitutes #15 point or more, I will wait for tomorrow's session). Current sequence is similar to the September #24 - #28 (#2020) pattern when a Double Bottom was made before the strong rebound. It is therefore possible to re-test #1,700.80 psychological barrier before rebounding, as the DX touched its Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone and failed to break it. Also Gold's future weakness will Highly correlated with the strength on the Bond Yields and DX, rallying ahead of the financial crisis which is ahead. As discussed, the Hourly 4 chart’s Rectangle should be timed for downside. I am looking to complete a full oscillation to #1,727.80 firstly, and #1,700.80 barrier / my main point of interests, but not yet - Gold firstly needs to digest the news speculations. Consequently, the current consolidation and another Bearish wave should come as no Technical surprise.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
