GOLD
GOLD OUTLOOK SENTIMENTS:
US JOLT JOB OPENINGS came in a swift 10.1M vs. 9.41M forecast. Generally, report shows an increase in job openings which seen as a positive economic indicator, leading in an increased investor confidence in the U.S. economy. Consequently, DXY soars, and the price of gold triggers a downward pressure on Wednesday (New York Session).
FUNDAMENTAL:
This week 3 more macroeconomic news are yet to unveil. Plus, the uncertainty towards US debt-ceiling agreement scheduled on June 5, and a recent hawkish stance fueling more downward signals to XAU/USD.
US JOLT JOB OPENINGS may have a direct impact on these 3 upcoming news.
* A higher JOLTS job openings figure suggests a stronger labor market and increased hiring potential, which can positively impact the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
* Higher JOLTS job openings can indicate increased demand for labor, which can contribute to higher production levels and a potentially positive impact on the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
* JOLTS job openings data can provide insights into potential future hiring trends, which can impact the Non-Farm Payroll figure.
IMPACT ON USD AND GOLD:
1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
* If the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change shows strong job growth, it can contribute to positive investor sentiment and potentially strengthen the USD. However, gold prices may experience downward pressure as investors may shift away from safe-haven assets towards riskier investments.
2. ISM Manufacturing PMI:
* USD and Gold: A strong ISM Manufacturing PMI can boost investor confidence in the US economy and potentially strengthen the USD. However, gold prices may face downward pressure as investors may prefer riskier assets over safe-haven assets like gold.
3. US Non-Farm Payroll:
* USD and Gold: A robust Non-Farm Payroll figure, indicating strong job growth, can increase investor confidence in the US economy and potentially strengthen the USD. On the other hand, gold prices may be influenced by market sentiment and investor demand for safe-haven assets. If the Non-Farm Payroll figure is positive, it may reduce the demand for gold, potentially leading to lower gold prices.
Furthermore, gold is seen to decline at the end of the week. With macroeconomic news giving signs to a more bearish gold, plus the uncertainty of what the debt-ceiling could result.
TECHNICAL:
On a technical levels, gold shows a breakout from $1932 levels to $1970. Breaking a resistance of $1951. Hourly 1 and Hourly 4 shows upward momentum, but on a daily timeframe gold is still showing downward signals. With this, Gold may fall below $1950, with a target of $1942. A break below $1936 will push gold underneath $1927. A strong downward momentum is unveil in this level and locking a target on $1912 to $1900. However during the news, gold may seen to hit $1985.
So incase of alternative scenario, look for $1980-$1985 levels. A break above should be limited.
KEY LEVEL:
$1960
RESISTANCE:
$1985
$1978
SUPPORT: on current trend
$1960
$1950-$1954
SUPPORT: below $1954
$1944
$1936
$1925
$1900
MY POSITION:
I have activated my selling position at $1969.859 with $1954 as my take-profit. And another short position eyeing targets at $1925.
My recent signals, shows eyeing my target towards $1985. A break on this level is now uncertain given the news. I have already closed my buy position at $1970 levels, securing profit.