Bears were recently presented by a discount opportunity with the news of BOE bond holdings venture that triggered the trend on Gold against USD and we saw market move from 1614 to direct 1729 without brakes. Now as we saw on USDJPY making a drop of over ~600 pips, BOJ could be expected to be the one behind the sudden jerk against USD in the entire market since Yen is ~12 percent of the Dollar strength basket (DXY, $index). As the history is evident, most interventions retrace like the one from 1614 to 1720 almost fully retraced to 1617 that is over 97% recovery. Now let us analyze the technical aspects of the current scenario on XAUUSD.
Technical picture:
1- We are still inside the downtrend channel so, by far, the big trend remains bearish.
2- Since we never crossed the top and bottom of the previous discount move from 1614-1629, we will consider the Fibo levels from that move. According to which, we have currently stopped at 0.618, crossing here we might see further higher levels at 0.5, 0.382 and 0.236. These levels will also help us determine the points of possible u-turn back to the trend direction which is bearish. But unless that happens, avoid short positions, we need a clear bounce from higher or current levels to sell XAUUSD again and cash the discount that market is currently presenting.
Attention day traders!: You can trade between these fibo levels for a good daily pips gain.
3- Counter scenario suggests that Gold finally breaks higher from the channel and the resultantly the bearish trend, I have marked the price zone as white where you must wait for the market to decide whether it wants to either break high or bounce back to the bearish trend.
4- I have also marked break high and break low targets on the chart, when consolidation is over, we should have a pattern like a pennant or something similar to have a sharper entry from a better price, but unless it reveals itself, we must wait!
Caution: We have a FOMC ahead with a possible new rate hike by FEDs so be careful on long positions on XAUUSD.
Best of Luck, Happy trading and happier profits :-)
Technical picture:
1- We are still inside the downtrend channel so, by far, the big trend remains bearish.
2- Since we never crossed the top and bottom of the previous discount move from 1614-1629, we will consider the Fibo levels from that move. According to which, we have currently stopped at 0.618, crossing here we might see further higher levels at 0.5, 0.382 and 0.236. These levels will also help us determine the points of possible u-turn back to the trend direction which is bearish. But unless that happens, avoid short positions, we need a clear bounce from higher or current levels to sell XAUUSD again and cash the discount that market is currently presenting.
Attention day traders!: You can trade between these fibo levels for a good daily pips gain.
3- Counter scenario suggests that Gold finally breaks higher from the channel and the resultantly the bearish trend, I have marked the price zone as white where you must wait for the market to decide whether it wants to either break high or bounce back to the bearish trend.
4- I have also marked break high and break low targets on the chart, when consolidation is over, we should have a pattern like a pennant or something similar to have a sharper entry from a better price, but unless it reveals itself, we must wait!
Caution: We have a FOMC ahead with a possible new rate hike by FEDs so be careful on long positions on XAUUSD.
Best of Luck, Happy trading and happier profits :-)
Comment:
We have entered the no trade zone, lets wait for confirmation :-)
Comment:
we broke higher yesterday, best of luck :-)
Trade closed: target reached
