Gold's Short-term Neutral to a full extent

Gold's general commentary: Gold is Trading sideways on Hourly 4 chart for #2 reasons. Technically because it was close to the main Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance of #1,870.80, which rejected the Price-action on multiple occasions, and Fundamentally (and most importantly) due to the (speculation on Bond Yields (# +1.53%) over Trade settlement and Fed’s (currently showing no results) battle against Inflation, currently on ATH chart). I noted this issue last week ("retest of #1,870’s") so Sellers should be getting their return within the Bollinger Bands once the trend appears. I do however expect the Price-action to attach the Selling pressure on the Daily chart’s Ascending Channel and break the #1,848.80 second Support sooner or later which can extend the Price-action towards #1,822.80. The remaining correlations are in normal stance so the consolidation is caused by the recovery candles on Bond Yields (followed by Bearish Gap fill which resulted as negative E.U. opening on Gold and is this Bearish set of candles, visible on the charts) and partially by the Intra-day consolidation on Usd-Jpy pair. The projected Support Trading at #1,822.80 area should be reached within #10 sessions as I doubt that I will further Bullish developments, however - it is crucial to note that if Gold defends #1,848.80 on Hourly 4 chart for few more sessions, I cannot rule out the possibility of #1,870.80 Bullish configuration test. I am expecting Volatility - and visible Selling pressure from Yields on a parabolic downtrend. It is no coincidence that since the E.U. opening the Price-action has been consolidating within #10 point range. This is an critical level as it is near the Higher High Lower zone on the Daily chart. Purely on a Technical perspective, expect that Volatility will be more significant as U.S. session approaches. I will wait for Selling opportunity as the next Trading week goes by, as I am on sidelines for more than #10 sessions at the moment.


Technical analysis: The Daily chart’s Ascending Channel is intact as the #1,848.80 Support and this week's Low is holding, Bullish structure visible as DX is on High’s again and Bond Yields comfortably Trading above the Resistance zone. So far the trend is still Neutral regarding Short-term, as there are Higher chances of a pullback on the Daily chart configuration as this is vicinity near the #2-Month Higher High’s trendline. However confirmation will only come if #1,848.80 breaks (and confirmation from Bond Yields) as is a similar sequence April #7 - #8, the Support held and gave way to a new High, then sharp Lower Low’s decline. The Hourly 4 chart #1,845.80 - #1,848.80 works as an Support zone at the moment. Current Gold’s environment (Inflation pressure) should and is practicing Buying pressure on Gold (Gold friendly). Regardless, I am expecting #1,848.80 break within #5 sessions, and #1,830.80 strong Support break within #10 sessions. My base-case scenario is extending the Price-action towards #1,800.80 psychological barrier or less. Fundamental announcements have strengthened the DX, kept the Bond Yields on Higher levels (compared to Tuesday’s / Wednesday’s sequence), which should practice Selling pressure on Gold, but Gold miraculously recovered once again (which confirms the Volatility) - as my estimations are pointing that this is final recovery attempt of Gold to defend the Lower zones. All of those are Bearish correlations for Gold and should add Selling pressure. Gold has been consolidating is the past #8 Hourly 4 candles within #1,855.80 - #1,865.80 so Scalpers are getting the most out of the current Price-action. So far this consolidation is keeping the Hourly charts Bearish and it is obvious why Gold is on the Higher High’s region. If Gold crosses #1,870.80 (Resistance) in the next #2 Daily candles, then the formation breaks sideways and that is a Bullish sign - however chances are slim. If Gold breaks sideways then, as it happened in March #31 - April #3, I expect the price to seek Support on the #1,848.80.


My position: It is Highly dangerous to engage any kind of order at the moment, as Bond Yields uptrend can alter the Buying sequence on Gold anytime, on the other hand: Investors are not willing to Sell Gold due to Inflation fears, which may limit the downtrend.