Gold's general commentary: As expected Gold hit and break #1,800.80 psychological benchmark on CPI softer than expected numbers which I mentioned on my remarks. In addition, Gold got rejected on Technical Resistance zone seen Trading at #1,825.80 - #1,827.80, where Price-action was approaching #1,772.80 - #1,778.80 zone I’ve been mentioning all week aswell my personal estimations were that CPI will have Bullish reaction on Gold (softer number as stated on my remarks), hence Bearish on DX which could be used as final push-and-break of the Medium-term Resistance zone where I will be ready with my Buying positions.
Technical analysis: Personally, as mentioned on my previous post that level (#1,772.80) representing the Weekly chart’s (#1W) crucial Support extension (#1,735.80) may be tested on aggressive Selling sequence if #1,772.80 Support breaks and market closed below. The last rejection on that level caused Gold to drop to #1,180.80 (June #2013 and December #2013). I am expecting a symmetrical reaction and Bearish reversal on the Long-run (once local High’s are priced in) towards #1,700.80 benchmark first then the #1,678.80 in extension before regrouping. The current Selling accumulation pattern on Hourly 4 chart is now on total Neutrality but attempting to break towards yesterday's Higher High’s Upper zone and U.S. Stock markets as well as the Bond markets were taking strong hits. This rise on Gold goes diagonally with the continuous Low’s on DX, showcasing again that the underlying Short-term trend on Gold remains Bullish. Current result on Inflation data will surely affect Fed numbers throughout today’s session where I do expect to arise Buyers once again and break #1,827.80 on one hit / try, and extend the Buying motion towards #1,852.80 ultimate Top’s where I will Sell Gold on the Medium-term towards #1,800.80 psychological benchmark first, then #1,752.80 in extension. Yesterday’s session Three White Soldiers candlestick formation above the Daily chart’s Triple Top formation was the Technical Buying signal, yesterday's Bond Yields and DX remarks as Fundamental catalyst, where I do expect aggressive Bullish continuation scenario on the Fed aftermath.
Fundamental analysis: Due to the elevated Volatility on Hourly 4 chart and the upcoming Resistance zone on Hourly 4 chart, market is not under normal conditions. Daily chart is still on healthy Bullish Technicals and advocates that after the #1,827.80 is breached, then #1,852.80 is the next stop. This sequence is straightforward since I can't speculate if April’s Bottom will break once again (since it was achieved under the #2nd Highest Volumes #421.74K of the last #14-Month period). The other reason why my partial Profit taking is postponed is the undesirable Volatility that was expected due to the CPI which Highly affects Yields, as my position could hit Stop-loss and get Bought back (as is evident on the charts from July #5). I was carefully monitor how Yields will end the Trading week and have an final word with #100% certainty.
Fed commentary: I am expecting #50 bps rate hike aswell with dovish stance on the aftermath (DX on Selling sequence in continuation). Based on my estimations, hawkish stance (which may enforce DX) has slim chances to be delivered.
Technical analysis: Personally, as mentioned on my previous post that level (#1,772.80) representing the Weekly chart’s (#1W) crucial Support extension (#1,735.80) may be tested on aggressive Selling sequence if #1,772.80 Support breaks and market closed below. The last rejection on that level caused Gold to drop to #1,180.80 (June #2013 and December #2013). I am expecting a symmetrical reaction and Bearish reversal on the Long-run (once local High’s are priced in) towards #1,700.80 benchmark first then the #1,678.80 in extension before regrouping. The current Selling accumulation pattern on Hourly 4 chart is now on total Neutrality but attempting to break towards yesterday's Higher High’s Upper zone and U.S. Stock markets as well as the Bond markets were taking strong hits. This rise on Gold goes diagonally with the continuous Low’s on DX, showcasing again that the underlying Short-term trend on Gold remains Bullish. Current result on Inflation data will surely affect Fed numbers throughout today’s session where I do expect to arise Buyers once again and break #1,827.80 on one hit / try, and extend the Buying motion towards #1,852.80 ultimate Top’s where I will Sell Gold on the Medium-term towards #1,800.80 psychological benchmark first, then #1,752.80 in extension. Yesterday’s session Three White Soldiers candlestick formation above the Daily chart’s Triple Top formation was the Technical Buying signal, yesterday's Bond Yields and DX remarks as Fundamental catalyst, where I do expect aggressive Bullish continuation scenario on the Fed aftermath.
Fundamental analysis: Due to the elevated Volatility on Hourly 4 chart and the upcoming Resistance zone on Hourly 4 chart, market is not under normal conditions. Daily chart is still on healthy Bullish Technicals and advocates that after the #1,827.80 is breached, then #1,852.80 is the next stop. This sequence is straightforward since I can't speculate if April’s Bottom will break once again (since it was achieved under the #2nd Highest Volumes #421.74K of the last #14-Month period). The other reason why my partial Profit taking is postponed is the undesirable Volatility that was expected due to the CPI which Highly affects Yields, as my position could hit Stop-loss and get Bought back (as is evident on the charts from July #5). I was carefully monitor how Yields will end the Trading week and have an final word with #100% certainty.
Fed commentary: I am expecting #50 bps rate hike aswell with dovish stance on the aftermath (DX on Selling sequence in continuation). Based on my estimations, hawkish stance (which may enforce DX) has slim chances to be delivered.
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