Gold Targets #1,700.80 psychological barrier
Gold's general commentary: Taking the strong uptrend on Bond Yields in consideration, Gold is extending it’s ranged candles, showcasing the strong underlying Bearish (fair Technical trend pressure) trend. With the Bond Yields Trading on decent gains and the DX on the Weekly High’s (above #92.27 Resistance) on E.U. opening, I would like to note that the fact that Gold is consolidating on the Lower Low trendline of the Channel Down and as Traders understand, regarding the historic / cyclical aspect, it resembles the last Lower Low and ready to turn downwards yet again, as March’s #1,678.80 Double Bottom rejected the Price-action, which is a tough nut to crack for Sellers. This validates it even more. More specifically with #1,727.80 as the Hourly 4 chart’s Support, if it breaks I am expecting an aggressive gap fill at #1,700.80 within #1 session. The Daily chart turned Bearish sessions ago and can Support the Technical downtrend, where I announced on multiple occasions that I expect #1,727.80 or less within August fractal. This #3 sessions horizon coincides with the release of the U.S. High Impact news, so all the parameters Support a speculative downtrend on Gold amplified by a strong upswing on Bond Yields and DX trending upwards. Remember, whenever Fundamental dust / pressure settles, Gold always experience aggressive takedown.
Technical analysis: Personally, after few attempts to find the Resistance, market speculators took RSI levels into consideration and NFP aftermath delivered just what I was waiting for. Last time, RSI was that High (January #5 - #12 fractal), what followed was an extreme takedown. I was patiently waiting for such situation as my estimations are pointing that additional #148 point dip is on the cards. Gold was critically Overbought (from Yields on #5-Month Low’s for more than #30 sessions) as I cannot speculate how long current Selling variance/correction will last. Eventually, decline is inevitable as Gold have great chances of piercing #1,588.80 Weekly chart’s (#1W) Lower Low extension. If Yields continue trending upwards without more serious correction on DX, Gold will test #1,700.80 within current Trading week.
Fundamental analysis: DX again reversed (# +0.21% yesterday's session High) as it was no surprise that current configuration is pushing Gold Lower, Selling every local High towards #1,727.80 - #1,722.80 strong Support zone. No doubt that Gold is also affected by the effect of DX policy remarks, testing the #93.10 Resistance as correlation standpoint should be visible from today’s U.S. session. Not surprisingly, last week’s DX developments, which were later strongly Bought, had High impact on Gold and pushed it downwards, as DX Bullish rally will be messenger of Multi-Year Bearish cycle on Gold which I am expecting. This tight balance keeps the Daily chart’s Channel Down valid in High Volatility belt as I am keeping #1,727.80 as old/new Support and my main point of interest. I have noted that Gold Traders will witness this Volatility until Bond Yields stabilization and then, by my estimations, I am expect further takedown followed by #1,700.80 psychological barrier test (which will not be Bought back instantly), as Gold always gives #2 additional Lower Low extension and then prints (probable) healthy rebound. My analysis is based on Spot prices and I can say with certainty that those Gold moves that I are witnessing right now are sign how unstable market has become. While the threat of further Buying on the Weekly timeframe is still there (chances are slim), Swing Traders may be interested in a Selling from below Q2 opening level on the Hourly 4 chart configuration. A decisive Hourly 4 chart’s Selling formation could be on the cards (entry/risk levels can be decided according to this breakout candle if the variance allows), aligning with Daily chart’s fluctuation pushing Gold Lower from noted Supply-Demand zone, and if U.S. session opens with negative fashion, it has #1,727.80 test ahead on the cards (extended from the previous Low). Personally, Buying seems strongly limited with rising Treasury Yields (Bond Notes) near Monthly Resistance zone. If #1,800.80 breaks, Selling pattern is invalidated, while Support zone is still intact. Gold is looking vulnerable since there are only #2 Supports towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier, while upside has #5 Resistances within #20 points. As expected, August fractal is and will be Bullish Month for Yields, therefore Gold will remain an Selling option. I am expecting #1,678.80 Double Bottom break within #20 sessions.
My position: As stated above, I Sold Gold on spot calling for #1,700.80 psychological barrier extension. My entry point is #1,731.80, as I expect #1,700.80 test within #1 session.
Technical analysis: Personally, after few attempts to find the Resistance, market speculators took RSI levels into consideration and NFP aftermath delivered just what I was waiting for. Last time, RSI was that High (January #5 - #12 fractal), what followed was an extreme takedown. I was patiently waiting for such situation as my estimations are pointing that additional #148 point dip is on the cards. Gold was critically Overbought (from Yields on #5-Month Low’s for more than #30 sessions) as I cannot speculate how long current Selling variance/correction will last. Eventually, decline is inevitable as Gold have great chances of piercing #1,588.80 Weekly chart’s (#1W) Lower Low extension. If Yields continue trending upwards without more serious correction on DX, Gold will test #1,700.80 within current Trading week.
Fundamental analysis: DX again reversed (# +0.21% yesterday's session High) as it was no surprise that current configuration is pushing Gold Lower, Selling every local High towards #1,727.80 - #1,722.80 strong Support zone. No doubt that Gold is also affected by the effect of DX policy remarks, testing the #93.10 Resistance as correlation standpoint should be visible from today’s U.S. session. Not surprisingly, last week’s DX developments, which were later strongly Bought, had High impact on Gold and pushed it downwards, as DX Bullish rally will be messenger of Multi-Year Bearish cycle on Gold which I am expecting. This tight balance keeps the Daily chart’s Channel Down valid in High Volatility belt as I am keeping #1,727.80 as old/new Support and my main point of interest. I have noted that Gold Traders will witness this Volatility until Bond Yields stabilization and then, by my estimations, I am expect further takedown followed by #1,700.80 psychological barrier test (which will not be Bought back instantly), as Gold always gives #2 additional Lower Low extension and then prints (probable) healthy rebound. My analysis is based on Spot prices and I can say with certainty that those Gold moves that I are witnessing right now are sign how unstable market has become. While the threat of further Buying on the Weekly timeframe is still there (chances are slim), Swing Traders may be interested in a Selling from below Q2 opening level on the Hourly 4 chart configuration. A decisive Hourly 4 chart’s Selling formation could be on the cards (entry/risk levels can be decided according to this breakout candle if the variance allows), aligning with Daily chart’s fluctuation pushing Gold Lower from noted Supply-Demand zone, and if U.S. session opens with negative fashion, it has #1,727.80 test ahead on the cards (extended from the previous Low). Personally, Buying seems strongly limited with rising Treasury Yields (Bond Notes) near Monthly Resistance zone. If #1,800.80 breaks, Selling pattern is invalidated, while Support zone is still intact. Gold is looking vulnerable since there are only #2 Supports towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier, while upside has #5 Resistances within #20 points. As expected, August fractal is and will be Bullish Month for Yields, therefore Gold will remain an Selling option. I am expecting #1,678.80 Double Bottom break within #20 sessions.
My position: As stated above, I Sold Gold on spot calling for #1,700.80 psychological barrier extension. My entry point is #1,731.80, as I expect #1,700.80 test within #1 session.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
