Sell order activated / DX on recovery candles limiting uptrend
Gold's general commentary: Personally, Daily chart’s #MA50 is widely preserving the uptrend but it is slowly approaching more and more from below and within this current uptrend, I have concluded my Buying sequence since December #27 session and today’s #1,852.80 psychological benchmark. Personally, I expected such Short-term recovery but not early or mid this week. Early uptrend however didn’t caught me bare-handed, in addition it was too late to contemplate Selling the market on the Medium-term. This was one of the biggest Intra-Week gains for Xau-Usd in recent times and needless to mention, the Hourly 4 chart is still not too Overbought. There are #2 possibilities: #1) Price-action testing the #1,900.80 psychological barrier again where I will be contemplating Selling the market on Medium-term #2) Further dip as Wall Street opening Bell approaches. It is indeed critical crossroads on Gold which I will monitor patiently. On the other hand though, on the Daily chart, Gold is on Bullish Technicals as the Price-action is about to touch the Lower Resistance. I have stated all Monthly cycle how Fundamentally Overbought Gold was and how a mix of data and the Inflation on ATH (institutions withdrawing Profits from Gold's #2-Month Bullish parabolic run) was extremely Bullish on the Short-term. This can get even worse for Sellers if Bond Yields start recovering as the fair Price-action of Gold should be way above #1,852.80.
Technical analysis: Gold had a Triple Top formation on February #28, March #17, April #8 and naturally the market reacted with minimum #50 point rejection. The pullback can extend as Low as the #1,800.80 Higher High’s Lower zone second extension, if Daily chart’s Support break which is currently Trading at #1,827.80 and if broken, #1,800.80 should be next variance. Invalidation of #1,800.80 benchmark could engage aggressive decline towards #1,792.80 first, then #1,762.80 in succession before new Short-term Buyers re-appear. The market speculations are already digested so don't be surprised if you see thin Volume throughout current session, followed by Volatility. Gold’s strength is directly correlated with weakness on DX (# -0.47%) and as long as DX is Trading on disappointing numbers, more serious correction on Gold has slim chances to develop, only #31.72%. As Gold is cyclical asset, historically, every time Gold had Triple Top rejection, Gold delivered Lower High’s and Higher Low’s in extension (by my estimations, near #1,800’s). Keep in mind that Gold is on undisputed Bullish trend where Price-action is on (# +3.00%) Weekly chart’s (#1W) rise. There is evident counter theory to my analysis, Death Cross forming on DX which Technically is adding credence to Gold’s Buyers. If my Weekly (#1W) regressional analysis is correct on a future Bullish candle succession, current levels should be maximum out of current Buying sequence. As it is evident on the chart, the proposed Channel which I mentioned in my previous post is still dominating the Trade.
Fundamental analysis: Since then a Monthly (# +3.47%) Engulfing Bullish reversal candlestick negated most of those gains, as the EPS by Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan beat the estimates, spurring excitement on Wall Street, forcing Investors relocate again their capital to equities, naturally lifting up safe-haven metals such as Gold. Despite this, Gold is still a Buying option, as since breaking wall of Resistances has largely negated the negative bias of the previous #5-session horizon, delivering healthy Ascending Channel on Daily chart and practically cancelling out the Lower High’s Upper zone test / attempt. Gold's greatest “success” this Trading week was posting it's first Weekly green candle on gains since #2 straight on heavy losses. However, expect a corrective drop to my Target and consolidation around #1,800.80 psychological benchmark as equity holders digest the news and evaluate their strategy. Gold clearly accumulated all the panic capital from Bond Yields (# -2.27%) and is bound to give some back. My indicators still provide the safe Sell zone as they still haven't readjusted to the aggressive over-night uptrend. Approach today’s session with extreme caution and keep an eye on RSI turning Bearish and near critically Overbought levels. Gold is far from breaking Daily chart’s Ascending channel completely (confirmation) and now Selling projection is not yet confirmed.
My position: Besides all Bullish signs and pointers, I have engaged my Selling order with (#1,847.80 as an entry point), optimal Target is #1,827.80 first, then #1,800.80 psychological benchmark in succession. However, keep in mind that as long as #1,827.80 is preserved, Price-action will remain Bullish and will always pressure for a Resistance test, keeping the Bullish bias alive.
Technical analysis: Gold had a Triple Top formation on February #28, March #17, April #8 and naturally the market reacted with minimum #50 point rejection. The pullback can extend as Low as the #1,800.80 Higher High’s Lower zone second extension, if Daily chart’s Support break which is currently Trading at #1,827.80 and if broken, #1,800.80 should be next variance. Invalidation of #1,800.80 benchmark could engage aggressive decline towards #1,792.80 first, then #1,762.80 in succession before new Short-term Buyers re-appear. The market speculations are already digested so don't be surprised if you see thin Volume throughout current session, followed by Volatility. Gold’s strength is directly correlated with weakness on DX (# -0.47%) and as long as DX is Trading on disappointing numbers, more serious correction on Gold has slim chances to develop, only #31.72%. As Gold is cyclical asset, historically, every time Gold had Triple Top rejection, Gold delivered Lower High’s and Higher Low’s in extension (by my estimations, near #1,800’s). Keep in mind that Gold is on undisputed Bullish trend where Price-action is on (# +3.00%) Weekly chart’s (#1W) rise. There is evident counter theory to my analysis, Death Cross forming on DX which Technically is adding credence to Gold’s Buyers. If my Weekly (#1W) regressional analysis is correct on a future Bullish candle succession, current levels should be maximum out of current Buying sequence. As it is evident on the chart, the proposed Channel which I mentioned in my previous post is still dominating the Trade.
Fundamental analysis: Since then a Monthly (# +3.47%) Engulfing Bullish reversal candlestick negated most of those gains, as the EPS by Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan beat the estimates, spurring excitement on Wall Street, forcing Investors relocate again their capital to equities, naturally lifting up safe-haven metals such as Gold. Despite this, Gold is still a Buying option, as since breaking wall of Resistances has largely negated the negative bias of the previous #5-session horizon, delivering healthy Ascending Channel on Daily chart and practically cancelling out the Lower High’s Upper zone test / attempt. Gold's greatest “success” this Trading week was posting it's first Weekly green candle on gains since #2 straight on heavy losses. However, expect a corrective drop to my Target and consolidation around #1,800.80 psychological benchmark as equity holders digest the news and evaluate their strategy. Gold clearly accumulated all the panic capital from Bond Yields (# -2.27%) and is bound to give some back. My indicators still provide the safe Sell zone as they still haven't readjusted to the aggressive over-night uptrend. Approach today’s session with extreme caution and keep an eye on RSI turning Bearish and near critically Overbought levels. Gold is far from breaking Daily chart’s Ascending channel completely (confirmation) and now Selling projection is not yet confirmed.
My position: Besides all Bullish signs and pointers, I have engaged my Selling order with (#1,847.80 as an entry point), optimal Target is #1,827.80 first, then #1,800.80 psychological benchmark in succession. However, keep in mind that as long as #1,827.80 is preserved, Price-action will remain Bullish and will always pressure for a Resistance test, keeping the Bullish bias alive.
- My official and only Telegram Channel: t.me/goldenBear88
- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
