Riding the Bearish wave from #1,885.80 / #1,800.80 possible

Gold's general commentary: As discussed, after critical RSI levels and Resistance rejection, Selling sequence should be ahead on Gold. Price-action was currently (throughout June) on the strongest Daily candle since Annual start on Daily % change) and regarding Short-term, #1,896.80 - #1,906.80 formed obvious new Top. That Gold was Overbought and inflated without a reason - shows current aggressive decline throughout last week. This means that Gold was already in high Overbought waters (since May #27) and based on my estimations, yet again I see no space for further Buying. Spot how market speculators were preventing Gold’s decline more than #2-Week horizon (with Bond Yields on Annual High’s) and now on Yield’s Annual Low’s, speculators are preventing further uptrend continuation. All I can spot is new decline as an answer on Biden’s #1.8 Trillion infrastructure spending and debacle on most Fundamental announcements. With All Charts: Hourly (#1,#4,#5,) and Daily strongly crossed into Bearish values I maintain my Selling outlook. Remember when unsure of Gold's direction, look always for the underlying correlations with the strongest instruments. With DX convincingly Trading around the Hourly 1 Resistance, Gold's answer is current consolidation and basic Rectangle Trading. I assume no more Buying positions until this Daily Resistance is tested again, which could provide me with another Selling opportunity along with the confirmation on Bond Yields (engaging the recovery). Since #1,887.80 Support got invalidated, and I wasn't so certain about my entry with Yields still struggling to make Bullish comeback, I waited #2 points more and engaged my Selling order with #1,850.80 Target. If #1,871.80 is crossed and market closed a candle below it, then Gold will be calling for #1,850.80 semi-Support and #1,833.80 Higher Low extension. Until this happens the current consolidation will continue to resemble the January - February #2018 pattern, aiming the last Selling sequence of this cycle.


Technical analysis: Bond Yields are again pulling Lower (# -2.55% Annual Low) throughout idle session after all, adding Buying pressure for Gold (safe-haven) but as mentioned on my previous analysis the biggest marker on the Short-term is the DX which is also pulling back towards #90.20. Equities are Trading on small gains but that configuration will have less or no impact on my model. Interestingly enough notice how today's session Rectangle Trading on Gold # -0.22% is inversely symmetrical to the consolidation candles on DX # +0.27%. That is why I have this as my strongest market at the moment. However since #92.10 is not far off, I expect Gold to make a Top soon (in fact it hasn't even reached the #1,906.80 Hourly 4 Resistance). Daily chart remains in fact Neutral despite today's mini decline. The Long-term Bearish trend within the Rectangle is intact as I should be seeing #1,871.80 break first. This shows that big institutional capital speculate on the same strategy I apply, taking profits on High’s of the Channel Up, causing Bearish spikes, which they later Short. The #1,906.80 High if happens again can be Technically used as an entry for the #1,887.80 Support test. Technically, Gold is pricing a Top here (temporary or not). However, the Channel Up needs to rise drastically in order to keep the Bullish momentum sustainable (less likely), otherwise the candles get off the trendlines channel and breaks the Support one-by-one which I am waiting for.


My position: As discussed above (and my #1,871.80 test projection within #2 sessions I mentioned), #1,887.80 Support got invalidated but with Yields struggling to make Bullish comeback, I waited #2 more points and engaged my Selling order on #1,885.80, with #1,850.80 as an immediate Target. I won't take excessive risks ahead of week's ending as my Stop-loss is priced on #1,890.80 which is only #5 points away from my entry. If my position gets invalidated, I will re-Sell again if #1,883.80 breaks.