Gold near to deliver decent Selling opportunity on Short-term
Gold's general commentary: Gold broke the #1,812.80 Hourly 4 chart’s Support and I am now expecting a test of the Hourly 4 chart first Support zone at #1,800.80 and Support zone Lower level at #1,792.80 in extension. With the catalysts of the week reporting later on (no High impact news throughout today's session), I can see consolidation within #1,800.80 - #1,807.80 before a bigger proportion move later into the session. With the DX on recovery candles (# +0.09%) and Bond Yields staying rather weak without rebounding, the underlying trend is currently Neutral regarding Short-term. Gold is approaching May’s #6 Low with the May #13 High as my main point of interest. Hourly 4 chart has been on Lower High’s since Wednesday’s session and a breakout on current levels forms an Channel Down. DX touched #92.90 again, forming a very Bearish Technical outlook for Gold. Keep in mind that on a Weekly basis (from June #14), Gold is still on straight #5 - #7 Bullish week’s in general and there is still time even for the current Monthly candle to close in gains.
Technical analysis: Gold shows High durability on a near new Intra-day Low but there are certain aspects that make me sceptical on whether or not this can be sustainable. Those are: Extremely strong Sell-off on Bond Yields with the #10Y near the February #2 Support. In addition to that the DX has reversed Intra-day and is near a #4-session High. Usd-Jpy pair is also near the #2-session Support. Based on the above, Gold shouldn’t be above its #1,820.80 - #1,825.80 Short-term Resistance, but yet again (with mixed signals on various instruments), not aswell below #1,792.80 barrier. The RSI both on the Daily chart and Hourly 4 chart is idle at it’s best. However, with the further Fed game and always changing tightening speculations (adding Volatility almost on Hourly basis, visible on every candle), I won't be surprised to see a very negative week on Bond Yields, which would be Bullish for Gold (only if #1,825.80 breaks) and pause the Medium-term fair Technical downtrend extension. If #1,800.80 holds also throughout today’s session, I will engage my set of Buying orders with #1,824.80 Target and Daily chart’s #MA50 #1,836.80 extension. My advice would be to wait for the right opportunity to add Buying orders and that's definitely not now ahead of U.S. session opening Bell. I will keep operating with Selling order I am Trading with (giving more probabilities to the downside), and will update if a good opportunity arises on the other hand.
Fundamental analysis: With this week's Macroeconomic news releases (ECB Interest Rate Decision, U.S. Pending Home Sales, U.S. GDP to name the most important) standing out as potential catalysts, I expect Gold to start devalue its inflated prices due to this Month’s Bond Yields correction and global geopolitical threats. My first Short-term is still #1,785.80 with my Selling Medium-term bias also intact. If Gold preserves #1,800.80 psychological barrier it is going to be a ranged session but if it does, I may see a quite Bearish session today. As for the Price-action, for now Gold is consolidating within #1,805.80 - #1,815.80 as I mentioned on my yesterday's session commentary. The movement is within my model and my outlook on my Selling configuration is unchanged. I would like to note that the fact that Gold is consolidating on the Lower High trendline of the Channel Down and as you see on the chart it resembles the last Lower High before turning to Higher Low. This validates it even more.
My position: As I have closed my Selling order with partial Profits throughout yesterday's session (#1,805.80 - #1,798.80 where my Stop-loss is moved and got hit), I was without a position throughout all session until now. I have engaged my Selling order on #1,813.80, calling for #1,785.80 extension, with my Stop-loss on #1,820.80. I will move my Stop-loss every #5 points in Profit due extreme Volatility Gold is Trading under. If #1,800.80 rejects the Price-action, I will continue as discussed above. However, if Gold continues to consolidate around my entry for Hour or more, I might close my order as I will apply strict Risk management due recent (almost on Hourly basis) trend change on Gold.
Technical analysis: Gold shows High durability on a near new Intra-day Low but there are certain aspects that make me sceptical on whether or not this can be sustainable. Those are: Extremely strong Sell-off on Bond Yields with the #10Y near the February #2 Support. In addition to that the DX has reversed Intra-day and is near a #4-session High. Usd-Jpy pair is also near the #2-session Support. Based on the above, Gold shouldn’t be above its #1,820.80 - #1,825.80 Short-term Resistance, but yet again (with mixed signals on various instruments), not aswell below #1,792.80 barrier. The RSI both on the Daily chart and Hourly 4 chart is idle at it’s best. However, with the further Fed game and always changing tightening speculations (adding Volatility almost on Hourly basis, visible on every candle), I won't be surprised to see a very negative week on Bond Yields, which would be Bullish for Gold (only if #1,825.80 breaks) and pause the Medium-term fair Technical downtrend extension. If #1,800.80 holds also throughout today’s session, I will engage my set of Buying orders with #1,824.80 Target and Daily chart’s #MA50 #1,836.80 extension. My advice would be to wait for the right opportunity to add Buying orders and that's definitely not now ahead of U.S. session opening Bell. I will keep operating with Selling order I am Trading with (giving more probabilities to the downside), and will update if a good opportunity arises on the other hand.
Fundamental analysis: With this week's Macroeconomic news releases (ECB Interest Rate Decision, U.S. Pending Home Sales, U.S. GDP to name the most important) standing out as potential catalysts, I expect Gold to start devalue its inflated prices due to this Month’s Bond Yields correction and global geopolitical threats. My first Short-term is still #1,785.80 with my Selling Medium-term bias also intact. If Gold preserves #1,800.80 psychological barrier it is going to be a ranged session but if it does, I may see a quite Bearish session today. As for the Price-action, for now Gold is consolidating within #1,805.80 - #1,815.80 as I mentioned on my yesterday's session commentary. The movement is within my model and my outlook on my Selling configuration is unchanged. I would like to note that the fact that Gold is consolidating on the Lower High trendline of the Channel Down and as you see on the chart it resembles the last Lower High before turning to Higher Low. This validates it even more.
My position: As I have closed my Selling order with partial Profits throughout yesterday's session (#1,805.80 - #1,798.80 where my Stop-loss is moved and got hit), I was without a position throughout all session until now. I have engaged my Selling order on #1,813.80, calling for #1,785.80 extension, with my Stop-loss on #1,820.80. I will move my Stop-loss every #5 points in Profit due extreme Volatility Gold is Trading under. If #1,800.80 rejects the Price-action, I will continue as discussed above. However, if Gold continues to consolidate around my entry for Hour or more, I might close my order as I will apply strict Risk management due recent (almost on Hourly basis) trend change on Gold.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
