Gold on Medium-term crossroads / #3 Profits row
Gold's general commentary: All in all, Buyers took control as indeed Gold is Trading on a healthy Channel Up regarding Hourly 4 chart, as it has solid potential to extend the upwards movement beyond #1,827.80 Resistance. Gold is extended it’s rebound following the better than expected Fundamental readings throughout the week (except Yellen’s talk), breaking the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,786.80 Resistance second time within #5 sessions: The Hourly 4 RSI has turned sideways then, ahead of the Resistance (Neutral in most cases) barrier, and was giving me the impression that until I get to the weekly catalyst (NFP), the Price-action may consolidate within #1,785.80 - #1,795.80 belt, but I trusted my model and utilized Buying potential to it's maximum. Technical analysis can be deliver not results unless I get a move on the Bond Yields first, which appear to be turning sideways for the first time since early February (Trading on local Low’s after hitting # +1.75% Yearly High). Gold's is quite indecisive regarding the Short-term: until either #1,827.80 or #1,812.80 breaks, the Price-action is Neutral within that zone, which as discussed, it was the consolidation zone of February #15 - June #27, last Year.
Current week's Price-action commentary: Ranged Rectangle movements on Gold as, the Daily chart was pointing to Double Bottom which could potentially extend as High as the Hourly 4 chart’s Higher High (#1,817.80 on Spot prices at the moment), while Weekly chart (#1W) of utmost importance, shows potential for a lower Support test of the November #30 #1,765.80 Low. With even the Weekly chart turning Bearish marginally (and Fundamentally, since May is projected to be Bearish Month for Gold), it is again all about the Bond Yields, and will the Price-action close below or above #1,827.80 Short-term strong Resistance, to maintain the multi-month Bearish trend which is more likely to develop on the aftermath. Fundamentally, it is the Low’s on Bond Yields (on a parabolic downtrend) that is pushing Gold upwards (competitive instruments), as Investors see more value there. Regarding DX, it remains on a Short-term Channel Up as I expect yesterday's rise to be quickly corrected back to new Higher Low (adding Selling pressure on Gold, visible on DX # -0.34%). RSI shows Overbought values (adding more to Sellers intent since there is no more available space for further Buying) as Gold statistically didn’t broken the #1,797.80 Resistance since April #20 - #22 fractal. However, Traders could easily expect more Bullish action as yesterday's U.S. session approached with solid possibility for a Resistance break.
Technical analysis: Excellent Buying opportunity once again utilized as Gold spiked up almost to my Higher High projection. Early U.S. session opening delivered just what I was expecting as it was most likely a call for testing the Hourly 4 chart #1,827.80 extension on Short-term. Price-action was under strong Buying pressure since (as I expected), capital from Bond Yields (riskier assets) was parked in Gold (well know safe-haven) as Investors are again searching for Medium-term relief. Again, I need to point out that the Bullish confirmation is only complete it Gold closes above #1,827.80, which hints on new Bullish sequence (which just happened towards #1,850.80 Higher High). The Hourly 4 chart #RSI sequence is identical to the February 24th - #27th, which after it broken the #MA50, resulted into the aggressive rise and call for furthest extension (I am expecting same sequence, just on the opposite side as Gold has to cool down Overbought levels). I don’t doubt that this will be the case now as Gold historically repeats it’s cycles, especially on Monthly fractal. In my opinion Bond Yields are they key (essential), if they extend their Bearish bias (and DX makes its first Bearish Daily chart candle) Gold will follow it’s Technical Buying course. Needless to mention, I am expecting #100 point decline within #25 sessions.
My position: Since weekend break is near and Volatility could kick in since NFP is on calendar (and I am more than satisfied with my #3 Profit consecutive row), I will have my breakout zones ready, but will not commit too much since it is, as discussed end of the Trading week. My breakout zones are: Buying if #1,827,80 breaks towards #1,850.80, and Selling on spot if #1,812.80 breaks towards former #1,798.80 Resistance.
Current week's Price-action commentary: Ranged Rectangle movements on Gold as, the Daily chart was pointing to Double Bottom which could potentially extend as High as the Hourly 4 chart’s Higher High (#1,817.80 on Spot prices at the moment), while Weekly chart (#1W) of utmost importance, shows potential for a lower Support test of the November #30 #1,765.80 Low. With even the Weekly chart turning Bearish marginally (and Fundamentally, since May is projected to be Bearish Month for Gold), it is again all about the Bond Yields, and will the Price-action close below or above #1,827.80 Short-term strong Resistance, to maintain the multi-month Bearish trend which is more likely to develop on the aftermath. Fundamentally, it is the Low’s on Bond Yields (on a parabolic downtrend) that is pushing Gold upwards (competitive instruments), as Investors see more value there. Regarding DX, it remains on a Short-term Channel Up as I expect yesterday's rise to be quickly corrected back to new Higher Low (adding Selling pressure on Gold, visible on DX # -0.34%). RSI shows Overbought values (adding more to Sellers intent since there is no more available space for further Buying) as Gold statistically didn’t broken the #1,797.80 Resistance since April #20 - #22 fractal. However, Traders could easily expect more Bullish action as yesterday's U.S. session approached with solid possibility for a Resistance break.
Technical analysis: Excellent Buying opportunity once again utilized as Gold spiked up almost to my Higher High projection. Early U.S. session opening delivered just what I was expecting as it was most likely a call for testing the Hourly 4 chart #1,827.80 extension on Short-term. Price-action was under strong Buying pressure since (as I expected), capital from Bond Yields (riskier assets) was parked in Gold (well know safe-haven) as Investors are again searching for Medium-term relief. Again, I need to point out that the Bullish confirmation is only complete it Gold closes above #1,827.80, which hints on new Bullish sequence (which just happened towards #1,850.80 Higher High). The Hourly 4 chart #RSI sequence is identical to the February 24th - #27th, which after it broken the #MA50, resulted into the aggressive rise and call for furthest extension (I am expecting same sequence, just on the opposite side as Gold has to cool down Overbought levels). I don’t doubt that this will be the case now as Gold historically repeats it’s cycles, especially on Monthly fractal. In my opinion Bond Yields are they key (essential), if they extend their Bearish bias (and DX makes its first Bearish Daily chart candle) Gold will follow it’s Technical Buying course. Needless to mention, I am expecting #100 point decline within #25 sessions.
My position: Since weekend break is near and Volatility could kick in since NFP is on calendar (and I am more than satisfied with my #3 Profit consecutive row), I will have my breakout zones ready, but will not commit too much since it is, as discussed end of the Trading week. My breakout zones are: Buying if #1,827,80 breaks towards #1,850.80, and Selling on spot if #1,812.80 breaks towards former #1,798.80 Resistance.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
